SHORT TERM: fourth straight gap down opening, DOW -97
Overnight the Asian markets were mostly lower losing 0.9%. Europe markets opened higher, dropped, then recovered to end flat. US index futures were lower overnight and the market gapped down at the open to SPX 1353. The SPX had closed at 1364 yesterday. As the decline continued at 10:00 Wholesale inventories were reported lower: +0.3% vs +0.9%. At 10:30 the SPX hit 1343, a new low for the decline from 1415. The market then suddenly reversed and started to rally. By 11:30 the SPX hit 1360, pulled back to 1352 by 12:30 and rallied again. Around 2:00 the SPX hit 1364, then pulled back into a close at SPX 1355.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.70%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.35%. Bonds lost 1 tick, Crude slipped 55 cents, Gold lost $15.00, and the USD was higher. Tomorrow, that speech from FED chairman Bernanke at 9:30. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims, the Trade deficit and Export/Import prices. Then at 2:00 the Budget deficit. Support for the SPX remains drops to the 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance at the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Short term momentum continued to rise from that positive divergence, and ended the day around neutral.
This market has turned quite volatile lately, four gap down openings in a row. During a decline this is usually a sign of an impending low. The price action over the past two days has put a dent in our steady abA-B-abC decline. We were expecting the ‘b’ wave rallies to only be between 8 and 10 SPX points. Yesterday’s midday 18 point rally allowed for an alternative, and simpler, a-b-c decline. But today’s 21 point intraday rally complicates the short term count even further. Gotta love this market’s twists and turns.
Overall, our analysis suggests this downtrend is not over. We are still awaiting one key indicator to confirm a potential bottom: a downtrend confirmation in the DOW. Until this occurs, we tend to believe all the rallies are likely to be fully retraced. The market has displayed some remarkable resilience over the past two days. Which suggests the eventual low may be on the high side of the SPX 1300-1340 range. Short term support is right around SPX 1340, with resistance at the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrending
LONG TERM: bull market
ESM just gave em the biz last 20 mins
hahaha Joe Klecko
hi guys, we have some biggies coming out of China this evening 9:30-10 PM ET -CPI, PPI,Industrial Prod, retail sales…oops, another gap 2morrow….definitely maybe()…Thanks everyone!
)
thanks CB
Thank YOU, Tony!
You would think 1363 SPX is a pivot the way it’s acting
hahaha
Tony – think we see lower again before higher – or is higher not even in the cards at this time?
Thank you
Still looking lower.
dr copper has a nice +div on 60 min-looks ready to rally ahead of the data…0check it out guys
thx CB
Thank you Tony – VERY MUCH
http://screencast.com/t/ZOelMpQvJJ7 copper 60 min
Thanks C B !
Hi Lee! My pleasure….any words or warning for the Copper Be?..while I can still dump it ? lol..
Hey C B
I’ll have to punt on that question. I really don’t have any feel
thanks Dr. Lee..well the good news is you are not on the other side of that trade (for now, at least .. Nice ‘closing statement” on that video, Lee – I don’t get footbal too much, but I got THAT…lol..funny
)
todays NY advance decline data is stll very positive, with at 2:30 edt
2166 up, and 864 down. New Highs were 77 vs New lows 25.
Still see 5.14 as a change in trend date, if not the 9th.
Bo Yu, my timing indicator is very near a crossover buy signal at midday.
Option Ex, might see a surprising strength if we should dip below 1350
one more time……
I bought XLI and SMG, today, fyi
Tony, you mentioned this in your weekend update…. “This suggests a range of SPX 1317-1327. The typical correction during this bull market is 9.1%. This suggests a low around SPX 1293. Fibonacci retracements suggest the following: SPX 1322 (38.2%) and SPX 1291 (50%). Now we can add another. At SPX 1350 Int C = Int A, at SPX 1318 Int C = 1.5 Int A, and at SPX 1310 Int C = 1.618 Int A. If we eliminate the extremes of all these numbers we arrive at a range between SPX 1317 and 1322.”
One doubt, SPX 1291 (50%) would overlap major 1….should we accept that ?
Mario, That level is too low and outside expectations.
For all the silver and gold guys, I’m hoping to ease my way into the silver/gold using the late dec 2011 low as a stop loss. If silver and/or gold goes under the Major 4 low in dec 11, would that change your outlook on these two metals longer term? Sorry for the newbie question.
Roora, That would certainly put a dent in our forecast.
Tony,
So if your major 4 alternate in gold plays out with the E wave coming down below $1524 to say $1510 that would really dent your forecast?
yes Ryan, Gold is already doing some uncharacteristic movements these past few weeks.
Tony,
I have to say that the action is precious metals has me baffled. I really thought the low was in for silver as we went into the last weekend in April. I kept thinking we were there and the past couple of days have really muddied my outlook. Still bullish but it needs to re-capture $30 ASAP. $28.12 looks like about the max downside I can see without a full retest of $26.15-$26.30. Trying to think of what the bullish catalyst would be near term and I just don’t see anything until the Fed likely does more TWIST or QE on June 20th.
Ryan, Agree it should have started an uptrend in April.But recent seasonalities for commodities … a May selloff … weakened it further.A three month correction after a two month uptrend is unusual.ECB again next week.
Thank you, Tony. I don’t trade the precious metals often. Hopefully, this puzzle will resolve itself soon.
Looks like a perfect spot…
http://192.41.96.196:12001/graphics/thu/Dutch82.png
thanks Dutch
Can this be considered a bottom for commodities or do we need to see many more articles like these?
http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/commodities/money-morning-mining-supercycle-is-over-21900
Sai
Sai,
I have 4 different objectives pointing to a bottom in the $CCI between 523 and 539. Not to mention that the lower monthly Bollinger Band is currently standing at 520 or so and the index closed yesterday at 538 after hitting 533. Sentiment is definitely there but we have to start seeing some positive price action. Amazing that silver hasn’t been able to rally more than $2.20 without another downtrend since the high on 2/29/12. Gold has done the same but the number there is $68. Just looking at silver, it would really concern me if silver can’t get back over $30 without taking out yesterday’s low at $28.61. Get below $28.61 and there really isn’t much support until you get down to $26.15. At that point we would be looking at a triple bottom and those rarely hold. So if it doesn’t hold soon I think it tests $26.15, bounces up to $31 or so, then comes down to $23-$24. On gold I think the max downside is $1400 or so. For those of us that are commodity bulls it has been pure hell for the past 8 months or so. $CCI vs. $SPX down over 31%. Biggest correction in that ratio since the beginning of the secular bull in 2001.
Thanks Ryan
For your outlook. It is very tempting to time the market but I just can’t get it right. As long as I am not wrong with the larger trend, I am fine. I am hoping the interest on leverage will get compensated in the long run by the time this bull wave is done in 2014.
I do subscribe to Aden Sisters and they think bull run is not over yet!
Sai
Gold is following the same track it did in Primary III IMHO.
Then we had a 4 month gap between the Major 4 low and the Int ii low of Major 5. There were two momentum cycles spanning this period: the first lasted 3 months, the second 1 month.
Assuming Int ii has bottomed, we have the exact same pattern this time in Primary V.
The recent up and down-trends are roughly symmetrical with each other, as they were in 2006 following the Major 3 peak.
Major 4 had an extra 3 month momentum cycle added this time, which we didn’t see in Primary III. That’s the only complicating factor.
thanks Alex
Sure has been a “pesky” waver 4, for sure…..
Tony, do you think this microwave correction is over ?
By the way, I think this correction should last abt a couple of days. (abt 50% time from 13338-12749) if we have something at 12749 as I believe.
microwave correction?
=) sorry..you know what I mean
TSX Buy Pullback…Time Ratio…138.2…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/05/tsx-buy-pullbacktime-ratio1382.html
Tony & Co., A bounce at best to 1372,then back down?
Pooch, makes sense if it clears 1366.
I think you’re right. Looking for 1368-1369.
Steve
NIKKEI Buy Pullback…Fibo…38.2…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/05/nikkei-buy-pullbackfibo382time.html
NAS Buy Pullback…Fibo…72.36…Time Ratio…138.2…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/05/nas-buy-pullbackfibo7236time-ratio1382.html
Dax Update Buy Pullback…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/05/dax-buy-pullbackfibo382.html
Guys, I closed my GLD long position 3 min before the close. I didn’t have time to explain what caused me to exit the trade, so I wrote in more detail in today’s post. For those who might be interested:
http://buyonstrength.blogspot.ca/2012/05/may-09-gld-trade-7.html
Hi Igor. I’m watching this move in gold too and see that GC closed right on top of the TL I have been using for W2&W4. 1590 ish. TL going back to ’09. The fibs I see below, should this TL not hold, are 1530 and 1430. 1530 where buyers have taken control before.
My question for you, Tony or anybody that buys the actual metals, gold and or silver, is what is the best way to do so? Do you buy mint coins, generic, bullion, bars, Tiffany? Any advise is appreciated. TIA
Gold Eagles here HD, and the ETF’s
Thanks HD. I have long-term charts on the logarithmic scale and it looks like the long-term TL from Oct 2008 on that chart ($GOLD) is broken already (monthly).
HD, I agree with Tony on the US gold Eagles, BUT, you pay a premium and other broker fees that can add ~4-5% to cost. I live just outside D.C. and it’s hard to find a licensed dealer. There is only 1 in the city! Then there’s storage and safety. There are several good ETF’s, but I frequently use DGP, a 2x ETN (DB exchange traded note). Cheers!
I’m not sure how useful trend-lines are at this stage in the wave sequence?
I’ve seen many examples where the trend-line is broken by the 4th wave, or during the early stages of the 5th. (I’m sure Tony will correct me if I’m wrong!)
Since Gold just completed a 7-day downtrend, and the previous two trends were also 7 days long, I’m anticipating a reversal today, leading into a 7 day uptrend.
Looks to me like a one-month momentum cycle may have ended yesterday. There’ve been quite a few one month cycles in Gold over the last 11 years, and they’ve all resolved bullish, so I suspect this one will too.
TY everyone. Sounds like Eagles are the popular choice. Mike, I wondered about storage too. They are gifts so I am glad I don’t have to consider that
Not trading today. GL
HD, A link:http://bullion.nwtmint.com/gold.phpPremiums are much higher now that 2009.
Hi Alex,
according to G. Neely Triangular activity in the 4th wave requires continuous revision of 2-4 trendline. I think that is what occurs in gold now. Thank you for the cycle observations.
SP500 Buy Pullback…Fibo…61.8…Time Ratio…123.6…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/05/sp500-buy-pullbackfibo618time-ratio1236.html
Wednesday’s Market
http://5wavemodel.blogspot.com/
I agree this downtrend may not be over yet, but it looks to me something finished at 12749 today. The dow rebounded almost 200 points to 12921. (I was expecting 12925 -12950).
What is it ?… it looks the selloff of today was the 5th way from 13338 (yes, we had another 5th wave yesterday..I think it was the 5th of the 3rd)… here the numbers: 13338 – 12815 (waves 0-3) *0.38 = 200 points aprox. …
12950-200=12750 ..(Perfect). So, this may be confirming a correction to the upside should be underway.
12750 was wave a ? …and wave b is underway ?
Tony, It is not usual for me to make an almost perfect trade like the one I did today. This was thanks to you, Tony. Thanks for being so patient and always answering my questions.
This is the best and #1 blog.
kudos Mario
Congrats Mario.
Steve
“gotta love this market’s twists and turns”. Mah not so sure I love them that much
Thank you Tony!
Makiori, buona sera! How is it going? What’s up with Greece, in ur view – are they gonna leave the Euro?
Thanks, Tony. Always look forward to your analysis. Great group of posters on this blog. Still sitting on the sidelines waiting for this market to get flushed out. So tempted to “dip” my toes into silver though.
thx Roora … yes a great group that enjoys helping others
Tony,
This week’s price action in ES supports your suspicion that we are near a bottom. On my 60-min ES chart, there are some prominent lower shadows (bottoming tails) on the candles testing the 1340-1345 area which implies buying. The MACD is holding steady just below the zero line but the Stochastic suggests no real momentum in either direction. Also, during today’s opening selloff, the RUT held above its previous low of 781.28 — that breaks the pattern of lower lows.
thx Radrian