SHORT TERM: market heads lower, DOW -69
Overnight the Asian markets were mostly lower losing 0.4%. Europe opened higher but closed -1.0%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 386K vs 380K. The market opened flat at SPX 1385. It then dipped to 1382, and rallied to 1388, all in the first 15 minutes. As it started to pullback again; at 10:00 Existing homes sales were reported lower: 4.48 mln vs 4.59 mln, the Philly FED was reported lower: 8.5 vs 12.5, and Leading indicators were reported lower: +0.3% vs +0.7%. The market quickly sold off to SPX 1379 just past 10:00. Then just as suddenly the market rallied to SPX 1390 by 10:30. The volatility continued as the market started to head lower yet again. Around 1:00 the SPX took out the 1379 low for the day and continued lower. At 2:00 the FED released the following: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20120419a.htm. The market continued to decline until 2:30 when the SPX hit 1370. The market then tried to rally, hitting SPX 1379 just before a 1377 close.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.55%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.95%. Bonds gained 4 ticks, Crude slipped 15 cents, Gold added $1.00, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX drops to the 1372 and 1363 pivots, with resistance at the 1386 and 1440 pivots. Short term momentum hit quite oversold during today’s decline. Tomorrow is options expiration.
A volatile day on Wall street. The market declined only 8 points for the day, but it covered 6o points between all the swings. The market first took out yesterday’s 1383 low, then tried to take out yesterday’s 1390 high, but could only equal it. After that the market sold off quite solidly to 1370 before rebounding somewhat into the close. When the market hit SPX 1379 early, we thought Intermediate wave B could end with another diagonal triangle in the 1396 area. When the market failed at SPX 1390 it then appeared Int. B completed on tuesday at 1393. We can now count a Minute a to SPX 1379, a Minute b to 1390, and a Minute c to 1370 completing Minor wave A. The rally before the close looks like Minor wave B. As long as SPX 1390 is not reached again we’ll count it as such. When it does conclude we should get another Minute abc down.
Short term support is at the 1372 and 1363 pivots, with resistance at the 1386 pivot and SPX 1414. Short term momentum ended the day rising off a quite oversold condition. The short term OEW charts turned negative again today on the second drop below 1385, with the swing point now around 1382. Best to your trading tomorrow on options expiration day!
MEDIUM TERM: DOW downtrending, SPX likely to follow
LONG TERM: bull market
Still remembering DJI of 6th May 2010. DJI panic fall due to false trade. Is it same here in India?
What a joke? This is why you need to analyse the hidden stats. Read the FII/DII trading stats for the day. We have seen panic fall, sudden technical low of 5000 in Nifty future from a high of 5350+, but FII/DII both are net buyers. Source: http://www.stockmaniacs.net/fii-dii.html
DOW = W1, W2, W3 Setup
http://www.wavegenius.com/2012/04/20/dow-visual-10-day-chart-w1-w2-w3-setup/
Hi Tony, What level on SPX do you think we need to see passed on the upside before you believe the Major 4 correction may be over. I don’t happen to think it is but if we go back up to the 1396 area tonight can that still count as an Int. B? Thank you in advance.
One other question on the EUR/USD. Based on an earlier article do you soon expect the 1.30 level to be given? It has been performing a balancing act for sometime now in the 1.3 – 1.32 area. I remember you had targets of 1.25 – 1.26 and perhaps 1.16 this year? Am I correct?
Alex, Still feel the count is a Minor B of Int. CShould the market clear 1390 then Int. B may not be over.Have not even considered Major 4 done yet.If you recall, during Major 2 there were also big rallies before the market broke into its final low.
As for the EUR.We thought 1.33-1.35 would be the upside limit.And it was. Still expecting a break to 1.16 this year.
Ok cool thanks. That suits. Cheers and good weekend.
Lots of Triangles – patience and then follow the break:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p66432767751&a=251425565
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYUD&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p30875501212&a=262503789
EURUSD Time Ratio…38.2…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/04/eurusd-time-ratio382_20.html
DAX Time Ratio…61.8…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/04/dax-time-ratio618.html
SP500 Time Ratio…138.2…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/04/sp500-time-ratio1382.html
The $SPX hig of 1,576 in 2007 was an Elliott Wave 5 High. The $SPXof 1,4222 in early April 2012, was an Elliott Wave 2 Up. The S&P, traded by the ETF, SPY, entered an Elliott Wave 3 Down in April 2012, and as the word entered into the Second Great Depression. The Third Wave Down is the most destructive of all economic waves as it destroys most of the wealth built on the prior 5 waves up. And in as much as Global Eurasia war is imminent in Syria and Iran, mankind is going to enter into the most horrific period of human history.
Today April 19, 2010, was Capitalism’s Waterloo as the charts of Volatility ETF VIXY, TVIX, VIXM, all show a rise today, on a pivot lower in world stocks, VT, and US Stocks, VTI, as jobless claims, existing-home sales and manufacturing in the mid-Atlantic region all suggested that the robust start to 2012 seems to have lost momentum.
The declines also reflected significant drops in many European markets after an auction of Spanish bonds was oversubscribed but produced slightly higher-than-expected yields.
Transports, IYT, and Industrials, IYJ, both traded lower today giving Dow Theory confirmation that the bear market that began this month is definitely underway. Transportation Shares, IYT, traded 1.5% lower, and Industrial Shares, IYJ, traded 1.1% lower.
Shares leading the way lower today included Steel, SLX, Housing, ITB, Small Cap Pure Value, RZV, US Infrastructure, PKB, and Large Cap Growth, JKE.
Large Cap Growth shares trading lower included QCOM, NEU, AAPL, CAT. Apple, AAPL, -3.2%; shares dropped below $600 after Verizon Wireless said it had sold 3.2 million iPhones in the first quarter, down from 4.2 million in the fourth. The Nasdaq 100, QTEC, Technology, XLK, and MTK, traded lower.
Spain’s BBVA and STD led European Financials, EUFN, Spain, EWP, Italy, EWI, Greece, GREK, France, EWQ, lower.
Emerging Markets, EEM, the BRICS, EEB, China Industrials, CHII, Steel, SLX, which turned lower in March, continued lower today.
Performance of Proshare 200% inverse ETFs this week include EEV 3.5%, TWM 2.1%, BZQ 6.5%, SSG 4.1%, SIJ, 1.5%, REW 5.7%, BIS -1.7%.
Today’s trade lower in world stocks, ACWI, evidences the death of fiat money and credit, as well as capitalism. Confirmation of such comes from yesterday’s trade lower in Commodities, DBC.
Much more commentary in my article Capitalism Meets Its Waterloo … Stocks Pivot Lower On Spanish Bond Auction Yield, As Well As On Job, Home Sales And Manufacturing Reports, is http://tinyurl.com/7cc5azq
Tony
If I follow your count, minor B looks like it has a target range of around 1380 to 1390 (right smack aound OEW 1386 pivot) and then minor C of Int C would terminate at 1360 or lower if minor C is greater or equal to just completed Minor A of Int C? Thanks for all your great advice to we who are trying learn how to apply Elliott waves to the market.
cheers Newbie!
Tomorrow is a very critical day. I think it will determine if the market is forming a leading diagonal to launch a new uptrend, or if it is going to burst through the 4/10 low.
SJ, If this market does what it has been doing we could bottom by tuesday.
Thank you Tony – very interesting day indeed.
Cheers
Gratias Antonio
Machinas sunt questus exercitium
certe sunt
Guys, we were already impressed with ur trading skills and now you can speak Latin, too? ..life is not fair…btw, Tony it says that ur name comes from Latin: Antonius and means . “Priceless” and “of inestimable worth” – Wikipedia…Very nice and so true Tony.
)
And Lee means “sheltered from the storm” – and that would explain why Lee is doing so well in this stormy market…Oh, gimme shelter, please! …
it’s interesting that the $NYAD line made a higher high recently – sth. to deal with after the OPEX shenanigans (?) http://screencast.com/t/aJq1NRAyFByP
thanks everyone!
thanks CB, NYAD … diagonal topSelloffABC rallymay I say s…..
Thanks Tony!
Thx Tony, it looks to me the countertrend is not finish yet.