monday update

SHORT TERM: market gaps down, DOW -131

Overnight the Asian markets were mostly lower -1.3%. European markets were still closed. US index futures had traded lower in abbreviated trading on friday, and remained lower into today’s open. At the open the SPX gapped down to 1385 and continued lower. The SPX had closed at 1398 on thursday. Around 10:00 the SPX hit 1378, the top of Intermediate wave iii, and started to stabilize. For the rest of the day the market moved higher, hitting SPX 1387 around 3:00. Then a pullback into the close ended the day at SPX 1382.

For the day the SPX/DOW were down 1.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were down 0.95%. Bonds gained 33 ticks, Crude slid 90 cents, Gold rallied $11.00, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX drops to 1372 and 1363 pivots, with resistance now at 1386 and 1440 pivots. Short term momentum hit extremely oversold at today’s lows. Tonight, FED chairman Bernanke gives a speech at 7:15. Tomorrow, Wholesale inventories at 10:00.

Today the market gapped down for the third trading day in a row. The decline from monday’s SPX 1422 high has been as follows: 1405-1413-1393-1402-1378. Notice the two rallies have been 8 and 9 points respectively. And, the declines have been: 17-20-24, gradually increasing. Thus far there has not been an overlap of any of the waves. Therefore this could represent five waves down, or part of a double zigzag formation. Until the market rallies above SPX 1393 we’ll count it as a double zigzag.

After today’s SPX 1378 low, the market staged a good rally after declining 44 points. This rally started from an extremely oversold short term condition, and also note, Europe was closed and had no impact on US trading. The rally, however, was no more than the typical 8-9 point variety. Short term support drops to the 1376 and 1363 pivots, with resistance at the 1386 pivot and SPX 1414. The short term OEW charts remain negative with the swing point around 1399. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend likely topped at SPX 1422

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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109 Responses to monday update

  1. budfox9450 says:

    Tony – Thanks, wonderful work….Bud

  2. Lee says:

    Alcoa pops in AH lol ..best pop in ESM all day and it comes after the NY close.

    Hey H D

    I was fairly active in CL
    Only made 2 trades in ESM
    and covered my Orange Juice short from Late January at the close :P

    • Lee says:

      H D

      In CL I’ll trade from 7:30 till 10:30 CT and then take a break til noon then trade til the pit close. Of course I’ll get manhandled and trade thru at times.
      Not bad hours The 1 st hour from pit open til 9:00 usually sets the tone. IB low/high
      I normally risk as much as 50 cents to as low as 20 cents on trades. And I get stopped out as much as the next guy .

      • H D says:

        Thx. I’m watching it. Thought $ .50 was about what you needed. Nice reaction from 655 ZW. I had one of those days where u get stopped 2 x right away and then just watch in anger….. oh well.

  3. rc1269 says:

    The demand vacuum is pretty impressive today. Does sorta feel like end of last July/beginning of August.

  4. Lee says:

    CL
    When it rips intra day fibs work a lot better
    Check em out some day.
    New LOD followed by the ole how’s ur father 23.60% = 101.22 and S1 = 101.11
    ES
    Oh there will be pops …use them wisely S3 @ 1354.25 still support

  5. rc1269 says:

    Tony, any chance wave 4 could end today, if we hold this low?

  6. Igor says:

    It’s the second time over the last month when GLD is testing the 20-day SMA from oversold conditions. If the price manages to close above it, then there is a high probability that it will go to the upper band of its BB. Just my observations.

  7. blubrd67 says:

    28 points so far (1387-1359)
    You think we are done Tony? :)
    It feels like bottomless pit again.

  8. Lee says:

    S3 in ESM 1354 R1 1381 to S3 Globex / day session…not bad

  9. rc1269 says:

    Starting to wonder if we might be able to get all the way to 1340 today…

  10. Lee says:

    Hey Igor
    Looks for better at the moment
    Appreciate all ur input on GC

  11. Lee says:

    Hello 1363 pivot Tony as always will be interested what you think going forward here.

  12. H D says:

    support is an illusion. when is the last time we went oversold through 3 pivots? 1363*

  13. Lee says:

    Everything that has transpired today in all markets was laid out in detail at my blog that gets started next week.
    details to come

  14. rc1269 says:

    SPX seems intent on testing that 1370 point today

  15. H D says:

    Anybody long on pivot? :shock:

  16. rc1269 says:

    copper just tanked below short term support, now riding the 100 day MA.

  17. rc1269 says:

    time for a B wave up?

  18. just since no-one said spx fut bounced at Tony’s tracked 1387 pivot and close to a failing divergence on fut. (if we get to spx 1376 before 1397 ) if it happens it would seem quite bearish to me. ( now at looking at 1381/2 )
    that said note i only made enough money to buy a sandwich last year so i ll remain quiet for a while now.

  19. M1 says:

    Tony, are we still in an uptrend or the downtrend was confirmed yesterday ?

  20. peterey says:

    Is the SPY/TLT ratio reliable: http://www.screencast.com/t/aDwtaQNY
    Would love to hear from more experienced traders.

  21. Turtle trading system generated fresh sell signal in DJI yesterday whereas an exit long system in S&P.

    Turtle Trading System for Amibroker lovers check at http://stockmaniacs.net/blog/what-is-turtle-trading-system-download-free-amibroker-formula/

  22. Lee says:

    Hey C B
    I will ask around starting tomorrow.

    • CB says:

      Thanks Lee! That’s so sweet of you. We’re so lucky to have you, our McLovin go-to man! :))

  23. does look like a zig zag…. but so far only 44 points which is way too shallow for a Major 4. Have to stay on lookout for 1322/1340, but I am selectively nibbling on some positions. SODA, RENN, SYNC to name a few. Best of luck to all

  24. Lee says:

    Hey Tony
    yea the futures closed 3 points under fair value and we’ll see as always
    I’ll stop posting such comments about longs being trapped for the reason it might sound mean spirited and that’s not my intent. Markets act like they want lower for the time being is all I’m saying.
    It’s lonely being a futures trader :)

    • rc1269 says:

      Heck, if somebody can’t handle hearing something as benign as that they probably shouldn’t be trading. The market can and will be more painful than anything you can say!

  25. CB says:

    Thanks Tony. Let’s see what Bernanke has to say tonight, huh?

    Btw, talking about buying trading advice and stuff…does anyone know what the best terms would be for a managed futures account?

    • CB says:

      or, maybe I should ask about the worst terms…might be equally helpful, actually.. : )

      • Lee says:

        Now ur talking C B !

        I hear the commodities managed futures funds have had a bad 6 -8 months

      • CB says:

        Well, you’ve been giving them a hard time for sure in CL and ZC & a few other things, Lee… :) ) I am sure you know just about everything about that, so could you give me some idea what the min. monthly return per annum is that one can expect from these guys in ur experience ?….No hurry on that of course.. I just feel like I need to know some basics in case I need to do sth. under pressure, and I don’t even know where to start. And if you would be so kind Lee, I think you must have an excellent idea of what kind of fees would be considered decent…what sound reasonable?…I am sure that depends on the invested amount too though, right? Thanks so much Lee. Whenever you have some time…

  26. Lee says:

    Thanks Tony

    Longs are trapped in SPX JMHO

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