SHORT TERM: pullback to start the week, DOW -15
Overnight the Asian markets were mostly lower: -0.9%. European markets opened lower and closed: -0.6%. US index futures were also lower overnight, and the market opened lower at SPX 1367. The SPX had closed at 1370 on friday. After a dip to 1365 the market bounced to SPX 1368 by 10:00. At ten ISM services was reported higher: 57.3 vs 56.8, but Factory orders were lower: -1.0% vs +1.1%. The market then started to pullback again. Around 11:30 the market hit its low for the day at 1359. It then worked its way higher to SPX 1366 by 3:30, and pulled back to close at 1364.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.90%. Bonds lost 7 ticks, Crude added 35 cents, Gold slid $7, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX remains at the 1363 and 1313 pivots, with resistance at at the 1372 and 1386 pivots. Short term momentum hit extremely oversold, then ended the day at neutral. Tomorrow, the economic calendar is clear.
The market opened lower today, pulled back to the 1363 pivot range, and then bounced into the close. The pullback from SPX 1378 has extended to 19 points, but is still within normal parameters for this uptrend. Defensive issues, like Utilities and MCD, had some buyers today. The selling did not appear to have any downside conviction though, as Bonds and the USD were lower, instead of higher. Nevertheless, our short term OEW charts turned negative today for the first time since around SPX 1310. In order for this selling to gain any momentum to the downside, the SPX first needs to trade to 1357 and then under 1355. Short term support remains at the 1363 pivot then SPX 1355 and 1341. Overhead resistance remains at the 1372 and 1386 pivots. Short term momentum hit extremely oversold today for the first time since December. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend high SPX 1378
LONG TERM: bull market
CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987
EURUSD Update Fibo…38.2…61.8…80.9…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2012/02/eurusd-fibo382618809.html
I put this out actually on Feb 27th to my paying subs, and one day later to Stocktwits.
http://chart.ly/6es3ji5
This is not difficult. 1377 was the same 218 point rally as 1074-1292, only from 1158-1377
Also, it was a clear 5 wave trend up from 1202 pivots
Finally, it was 161% of wave 1 1158-1267
This should obviously be that 4th wave and we were looking for 50-70 point corrective move, most of it early on and then meandering in a triangle afterwards.
Pivots are 1336, 1323, 1310…. with 1323 likely if not 1310
THen on to new highs 1427 or so
Peace
thx David
So,minor 4 now confirmed ,market oversold,bounce is possible from tomorrow @ 1338-40 upto 1370-72 level.This correction should last till month’s end,down to 1310-20 level.
Tony, why was 1357 important?
CB, 21 point pullback … Minor waves have staued within the 20 point range.
thanks Tony!
http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/
Thanks Tony.
W4 A = C zigzag complete in AAPL – Back to highs?
http://www.wavegenius.com/2012/03/06/aapl-visual-2-day-chart-completion-of-w4-zigzag-back-to-highs/
Thanks Sam.
Hello, I did post that I was not convinced we had seen Int iv yet. Agree with Alt count on DOW charts. If Int iv = Int ii (approx 62 pts; 10 days) then Int iv target would be 1313 on or about March 14, which is the 61.8 level (38.2 retrace) from beginning of Int iii to the Feb 29 high. Also see similarities in time/point movements (slope) in earlier advance/declines on the daily chart dating back to March09 & July10. This may not be an exact repeat of the advance/decline 08/30/10 to 11/30/10 but the 1313 mid March target would rhyme. Best to all & Good Luck
thanks Tim
Hi Tony,
Your wave count on SPX shows Intermediate i starting from 1159.
You have an alternate count on the DOW showing intermediate iii.
In your weekend update you said: “Uptrend rallied for one month, pulled back, rallied for another three months, pulled back, and then completed its uptrend months later. We will have to consider this an alternate count for now and it will be posted on the DOW charts”.
You also said:
“Should the market exceed the 1386 pivot, (SPX 1394), there is no pivot resisitance until 1440. And, we would be likely looking at a Major wave 3 uptrend then, instead of our current Intermediate wave i uptrend. The DOW charts displays this possibility”.
My questions are:
1. On the Dow count, Where did intermediate iii begin?
2. Even if SPX count is right, don’t we still have 4 more intermediate waves to complete Major wave 3?
3. If DOW count is right is 1313 the Int iv target?
tjhere has real short intermediate wave counts.
Aaron
My questions are: 1. On the Dow count, Where did intermediate iii begin?11,735 2. Even if SPX count is right, don’t we still have 4 more intermediate waves to complete Major wave 3? Correct3. If DOW count is right is 1313 the Int iv target?Sounds about right.
PS My key “turn” indicators broke their “line” late last week & Oscillators are confirming today. Bullish Percent (small box P&F) also confirmed yesterday. I’m comfortable calling this Int iv. But that is only a call not a promise
Tim, European stock markets are confirming downtrends.They led on the way up, they should lead on the way down.
Tony,if we break 1345(larger decline than 33 points) then we have got the top of minor 3 @1378 and now in minor 4th which should go down to minimum 1320 kind of level before bottoming and going for final 5th to complete Intermediate wave (iii) around 1400 level.Untill market breaks that level there is a good possibility of continuing this minor 3rd wave some more time before going for the correction.
thx Joy
Thanks for keeping us on the right side Tony. Maybe wrap up the A wave portion soon.
http://flic.kr/p/bAWS9P
Nice chart HD!
+1 Thanks H D
Dr. CL … did you say sell the ES rallies yesterday … kudos!
Thx and +1 to you guys too. Nice call Lee. minor 4 was 33 points too.
thanks HD. Thanks for the warning Tony.
Why do corrections always start with a big thud? There should be a gentler way of letting me know to get out of the way.
CB, There was: 1378-1364-1376-1359
thanks Tony. I’ll add this to the lits of things I missed. I got fooled by the closing # plus r2k, which must have rallied yesterday due to that us-china tarriff deal. Bulkowski had an interesting discussion of the Dow’s “ugly dbl bottom” yesterday too…
http://www.thepatternsite.com/Blog.html#P6
thanks CB
c’mon up on 12:15. Programmed move on deck IMHO
Thanks Lee and Igor. Great short calls guys! I totally missed some of that info. yesterday.
Tony, you have what you were expecting now… what’s next ?
“In order for this selling to gain any momentum to the downside, the SPX first needs to trade to 1357 and then under 1355″
Mario, We now have the biggest pullback since Minor 4, and have broken the rising weekly trend.Considering we can count five waves up from 1159, the ball is in the bears camp.Next support 1341.
Congratulations !!…
Morning Tony
Definitely some risk off this morning in credit. European financials are being taken to the woodshed. There are some doubts emerging about the prospects of the Greek PSI deal. All the LTRO borrowings implicitly subordinate existing unsecured European bank bondholders (per the ECB’s actions on Greek bonds). It seems like this realization is creeping into Euro bank bond spreads.
Domestic 10yr financials are about 10-15bp wider today. Euro sovereigns are leaking wider a little today too. Spain +10bp, Italy +7bp, Portugal +5bp
RC, Looks like everything is done that can be done for the moment.Now it’s time to see the results.Greek default or not?ECB balance sheet increase?ECB meeting thursdayFOMC meeting next week.
spx is now in the caution zone of the short term elliott trend indicator as is the nasdaq composite; $rut.x remains in the sell zone. remaining longs, including apple were closed out in the value portfolio on monday morning at spx 1374.
CAC40 into correction, minor4. Either we are done (almost) or we have to wait until after the Greece PSI Thursday which I believe is the most likely. A -0,45% or -2,25% respectively left to go.
Weekly
http://screencast.com/t/IgBvi5Xt
Daily
http://screencast.com/t/EQzPZRZI30hs
60 min
http://screencast.com/t/hBMZAeL90
Monday’s Market
http://5wavemodel.blogspot.com/
Same thoughts than friday. The inflection point may last longer than expected and the market may take more than one month to resolve which way it will go medium term.
I will turn Bearish if the lows of Feb are brocken. Waiting for any clue to turn bullish again.
Watching the same charts:
The one suggesting NDX going up to 3100-3150 and spx up to 1630…
1. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NDX&p=M&yr=13&mn=0&dy=0&id=p03475453942&a=258568990
The bearish charts. Both suggesting an important selloff may unfold in the coming months
1. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYA&p=M&yr=13&mn=0&dy=0&id=p90338799719&a=258089896
2. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$OEX:$USD&p=M&yr=20&mn=6&dy=0&id=p20300766759&a=258090209
= Inflection point.
DOW S&P NASDAQ near completion of zigzags
http://www.wavegenius.com/2012/03/05/elliott-wave-forecast-video-for-3-06-12-zigzags-near-completion-for-dow-spx-nasdaq/
Hi Tony,
For intermediate i to end (and intermediate ii to begin), SPX needs to close below 1355?
When intermediate ii begins, would a downside target be a 0.5 to 0.618 retracement of intermediate i? Would it be an ABC wave pattern being that intermediate ii is a corrective wave?
Thanks,
Aaron
Hi Aaron, No, it would take a lot more than that to confirm a downtrend.Yes, looking for about a 50% retracement.
so ~1268 or so in S&P cash, just to clarify?
thanks
RC, From the recent high a correction would suggest between the 1261 and 1291 pivots.
cool. thank you sir
Thanks Tony
http://www.securitiestechnologymonitor.com/news/time-stamps-trading-record-systems-30112-1.html?ET=securitiesindustry:e3389:180629a:&st=email&utm_source=editorial&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=SIN_DailyClose__030512
Geez, next they will be halting stocks all day long.
Monday, March 5, 2012 Stock Market Trends update:
http://47ertrends.blogspot.com/
ASTRO Moon Cycle…Declination…March 5 2012….
http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2012/03/astro-moon-cycledeclinationmar-5-2012.html
Gerald, have a look at John Hampson’s work – http://solarcycles.net/
Thought you might be interested.
Thanks Tony.