SHORT TERM: consolidation continues, DOW -3
Overnight the Asian markets were mostly higher: +0.6%. European markets opened lower and ended: -0.2%. US index futures were lower overnight as well. The market opened only slightly lower at SPX 1373, after closing at 1374 yesterday, and dipped to 1371 by 10:00. A rally attmept followed, but the SPX could only make it up to 1375 by 10:30. Then a gradual drift down followed, and the SPX hit 1366 by 1:30. At that time the FED issued the following: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20120302a.htm. As the market tried to rally the FED issued another press release around 2:30: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20120302b.htm. Around 3:30 the SPX hit 1372, and then pulled back into a 1370 close.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.25%. Bonds gained 19 ticks, Crude dropped $2.20, Gold slipped $3, and the USD was higher. Support for the SPX drops to the 1363 and 1313 pivots, with resistance at the 1372 and 1386 pivots. Short term momentum nearly hit oversold today and then moved higher. Today the WLEI reported another uptick: 47.0% vs 46.5%, and Investor sentiment slipped to bearish. All three of our indicators are again below 50%, despite the market’s 28% rally from early October.
The market opened relatively flat today. It then rallied to SPX 1375, dipped to 1368, bounced to 1372, and ended the day at 1370. Again, like yesterday, it did not break through SPX 1378 nor break below 1364, wednesday’s range. During the last two weeks of February we had been expecting an uptrend high, and a downtrend to begin. Thus far, this market has resisted every attempt to breakdown, and instead, has continued to grind out slightly higher highs. We have seen this type of action occur before in this bull market. We’ll cover this and other things in the weekend report.
Short term support drops to the 1363 pivot, and then SPX 1352. Overhead resistance is again at the 1372 and 1386 pivots. Short term momentum nearly hit oversold today and then bounced higher. The short term OEW charts remain positive with support just above the 1363 pivot. Best to your weekend!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend high SPX 1378
LONG TERM: bull market
CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987
adding shorts on monday via $tza 20.30 buy stop.
$rut SHORT TERM ELLIOTT TREND INDICATOR is now on SELL SIGNAL!
$spx ” “remains in yellow signal.
The inflection point may last longer than expected and the market may take more than one month to resolve which way it will go medium term.
I will keep neutral and I will turn bearish if I see a brake of the lows of february. Waiting for any clue to turn bullish again.
same charts:
The one suggesting NDX going up to 3100-3150 and spx up to 1630…
1. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NDX&p=M&yr=13&mn=0&dy=0&id=p03475453942&a=258568990
The bearish charts. Both suggesting an important selloff may unfold in the coming months
1. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYA&p=M&yr=13&mn=0&dy=0&id=p90338799719&a=258089896
2. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$OEX:$USD&p=M&yr=20&mn=6&dy=0&id=p20300766759&a=258090209
= Inflection point.
Today, the RUT took out its February low but this does not necessarily suggest that SPX will do the same. For the past month, the RUT has been on a different path from the large caps and might be in minor 4. Minor 1 was from 666.16 to 752.71; minor 2 corrected to 705.78. If we assume minor 3 is 1.618 * minor 1, the minor 3 target is 845.82. The RUT topped at 833.02 on February 3 and has since been sideways to lower.
Last December, minor 2 corrected 46.93 points (6.2%). From the 833.02 peak, RUT has so far corrected 32.89 points (3.9%). The RUT 13-day MA is 789.95; the 50-day MA is 789.80; and the 13-week MA is 787.30. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the RUT continue lower next week to test the cluster of MA support.
Radian, The small caps (R2K) basically ended its uptrend when the SPX neared 1350 and went into drift mode.This index is more of a gauge of the amount of speculation in the market, notice the ABC’s in the weekly chart, than a market indicator.There also may be some rotation going on as the major indices struggle higher.
Friday, March 2, 2012 Stock Market Trends update:
http://47ertrends.blogspot.com/
ASTRO Update Venus-Saturn…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2012/02/astro-venus-saturn-february-29-2012.html
ASTRO Moon Cycle Mars 2 2012…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2012/03/astro-moon-cycle-mars-2-2012.html