SHORT TERM: investors await LTRO 2 results, DOW +24
Overnight the Asian markets were higher: gaining 1.4%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.4%. US index futures were also higher overnight. At 8:15 FED governor Duke’s testimony: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/duke20120228a.htm. At 8:30 Durable goods orders were reported lower: -4.0% vs +3.0%. Then at 9:00 Case-Shiller housing prices reported a new low: 136.71 vs 138.24. Then previous low was 137.64. The market shrugged off the news and opened about unchanged at SPX 1368. After a two point dip in the opening minutes the market tried to rally. At 10:00 Consumer confidence reportedly surged: 70.8 vs 61.1. The market continued higher and hit a marginal new uptrend high at SPX 1373 around 11:30. Then it started to pullback. At 2:30 the SPX had dipped 5 points to 1368, and then it moved higher into a 1372 close.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.85%. Bonds gained 1 tick, Crude lost $1.90, Gold rallied $18, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX rises to the 1372 and 1363 pivots, with resistance now at the 1386 and 1440 pivots. Short term momentum tagged slightly overbought before the pullback. Tomorrow, Q4 GDP at 8:30, the Chicago PMI at 9:45, then the FED’s beige book at 2:00. Also, FED chairman Bernanke testifies before Congress on monetary policy. With the results of the ECB’s LTRO expected to be announced, tomorrow could create a breakout or begin a downtrend.
The market opened flat today, eked out another uptrend high, and then went into consolidation mode. It appears investors/traders are awaiting tomorrow’s LTRO results, Q4 GDP, and Bernanke’s semi-annual testimony on monetary policy. Estimates for the LTRO are anywhere from $300 bln to $700 bln Euros. Q4 estimates are at +2.8%. Short term the market is set up to go either way. There is a potential diagonal triangle forming for Micro wave 5, or a series of nested 1-2′s. We should know which path the market will take in the next day or so.
Short term support is at the 1372 and 1363 pivots, and then SPX 1352 and 1341. Overhead resistance is at the 1386 and 1440 pivots. Short term momentum is rising after dipping to neutral during today’s small pullback. The short term OEW charts remain positive with support at the 1363 pivot. Should the market clear the OEW 1386 pivot, then next one is not until 1440. Should the market drop below SPX 1352 a downtrend is likely underway. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend high SPX 1373
LONG TERM: bull market
CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987
CL to the days PP 107.20
ES stopped at .618
If ES SPX makes a new high now it’s just plain evil.
In Chicago and getting ready to walk out the door and get on I 57
I might hit u guys up for a quote at the close
If we get a KeyR day Ill sport the fur coat all week.
http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/
Thanks Tony.
SPX Visual 2 Day Chart – Worst Case/Best Case Intraday
http://www.wavegenius.com/2012/02/29/spx-visual-2-day-chart-worst-casebest-case-intraday/
Here’s the .618 back on the ES / SPX
1371.75 ESH
CL just busted thru the .50% pit
folks getting stopped out in CL
The good buying was at 105 IMO
CL hit the .618 back and pulled back
Cheap set ups GL
ouch CL PP @ 107.20
close squeeze(duh) 1$ in 4 minutes…its brutal.. thank goodness I was long from the days low……..JK dang 99 % retraces
thanks Lee
S&P Intraday Chart – 5 Down Before Upward 2?
http://www.wavegenius.com/2012/02/29/spx-visual-intraday-chart-5-down-complete-before-upward-2/
SP500 Important Reversal…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2012/02/sp500-important-reversal.html
Tony,as per my count market should reach 1400 next month, possibly 7-8th march we may get the top of minor 3rd wave of Intermediate wave (iii) around 1400 spx level.After that it will correct upto 1320 kind of level in minor 4th wave before entering into another bull wave of minor 5th to complete Intermediate wave (iii) around 1420 kind of level later this year.
So we are far away for completion of the Major 5th as well as the Primary wave I of bull Market.
thanks Joy.
Morning all!
Tweeted this chart yesterday:
http://chart.ly/dfauxea
Hey Igor
I think u posted that also when I was asking about the $TRANS lagging.
Good stuff .
At min the mkt has people thinking again .
Just look at CL
Yeah, the Energy sector looked strong, there were many good long setups, but those huge commercials short positions made me nervous. So I decided to stay out (when in doubt, stay out), though it was tempting.
CL,
see CL & GC
http://wp.me/p21mLI-dN
Enjoy !
can they take it 57′s
No idea honestly H D I mean it is the equities.
CL just got within a buck from its break out last week.
Some great moves this AM
I got lucky/ See yas later
intraday fibs ..watch em
SP500 High February 29 2012…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2012/02/astro-venus-saturn-february-29-2012.html
Anyone have any insight for the $60 drop in gold in such a short period of time?
Ryan, was it maybe Ben’s talk that caused GC to test some TLs (?)
daily, weekly , fwiw
http://screencast.com/t/LRjyZqJL
http://screencast.com/t/h7ZyllDBTra
“The catalyst appears to be remarks by $Fed Chairman Bernanke which seem to indicate a lower likelihood that the Fed will embark upon QE3. Combine this with a slightly overheated precious metals market which has been on a blistering rally since last week and you have the perfect environment for short term leveraged players to be flushed out.”
http://www.robertsinn.com/2012/02/29/a-flashback-to-august-4th-for-silver/
http://wp.me/p21mLI-dN
RT @howardlindzon 43 weddings were cancelled in India due to bad weather and gold drops $6 bucks…thats strong correlations
proofs in the results, don’t confuse what Gann did with some other idiot.
It was a little joke
Good stuff on your website. Have a nice day!
Tony, adjusting the count ?
No, not yet
tony– apple wave count looks to be getting close to completion here– 550-565 i believe was the target range. what would you expect (assuming end of wave5), would be the initial short term correction/downtrend– 10-15-20%?
Jason, Back to $487 ?
ty!
Morn all
Zerohedge has turned bullish. It took 6,400 DJIA points but he just gave up today.
Gl
good sell signal
Could you provide a link to the ZeroHedge post that says they are bullish now?
many thanks
Piazzi
No I can’t
It was my read/interpretation on his twitter stream that gave me that conclusion.
Whatever wave that is I think we should trade 1365 today. I’m in pretty good between 68-75 this week. Not my ‘A’ game. GL
ZW did break out nicely from the triangle and is way above pivot. Looking at K2 now. Not in.
thanks HD,good news is no news today
H D
1375 held on the throw over.
GL and if it runs …no mercy until u get ur price that is
BURN IT DOWN!
Tony or anyone,does anyone feel top is extremly near1380-86.Litro release,4th quarter gdp 3%,normally futes would be up 100-150 dow points.Futes have not even budged
seems to me that we’d be more likely near a top if we *were* up 100-150. the fact that the advance is so measured feels less toppy to me
Morning Tony
Things are fairly quiet this morning after the anticlimactice LTRO II results. Were they “good” or were they “bad”? Nobody can seem to make a strong argument either way, which I think is why the mkts are mostly shrugging their shoulders. Maybe Bernanke will give us something more to chew on.
Domestic credit spreads are pretty much unch’d this morning. Some financials are a little tighter, namely GS (after their sovereign CDS disclosure, which indicated a pretty manageable number). The one odd man out is Portugal, whose bond spreads are blowing out today. Port 10yr is +65bp today and still trending wider. Haven’t seen much commentary on it but I would guess the expanding subordination of Greek unsecured creditors (first the ECB, now the EIB) has started to get Portugal bondholders a little jittery. Probability of default is unchanged, but implied recovery in default is dropping with each new piece of information.
Thanks RC
thanks RC,The $530 bln Euro number all depends on how much of it is new money.It came in right around mid-range.Q4 GDP came in a bit higher, but okay too.
Viewing current price and volume patterns as bases of accumulation and distribution, I would view the RUT’s action as constructive, with a breakout above 833.02 being the signal for which to watch. On a weekly chart, it is rather easy to view a good old-fashioned cup with handle.
Likewise, the SPX and Dow seems to be forming ascending bases, effectively “chomping at the bit” and straining to gallop higher.
I do not know how to fit these scenarios into an EW or OEW wave count (while I am not generally an EW guy, I respect it enough to have become a long time reader – since 2006- reader of Tony’s. Great work you do here, Tony!
thanks Optiontimer!
Waiting Patiently for a Top
http://5wavemodel.blogspot.com/
as is everybody, it would seem
Still watching the same charts
1. The Inverse H&S target is acting as resistance.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p91217147688&a=248646876
2. This chart was actually bullish, but it looks like we will have to remove it tomorrow.. (in my opinion it is not good news)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DIA&p=M&yr=13&mn=0&dy=0&id=p67184147589&a=258089897
3. However, I like this one… NDX up to 3100-3150 and spx up to 1630…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NDX&p=M&yr=13&mn=0&dy=0&id=p03475453942&a=258568990
On the bearish side, both charts are still intact and suggesting an important selloff may unfold in the coming months
1. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYA&p=M&yr=13&mn=0&dy=0&id=p90338799719&a=258089896
2. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$OEX:$USD&p=M&yr=20&mn=6&dy=0&id=p20300766759&a=258090209
I insist, it looks like an inflection point
The reason Tony has a loyal following..he has the correct wave count in the SPX
http://elliottwave.info/?p=274
Mid Term/Short Term W3 targets for DOW S&P NASDAQ
http://www.wavegenius.com/2012/02/28/elliott-wave-forecast-video-for-2-29-12-3rd-wave-short-termmid-term-targets-for-dow-spx-nasdaq/
http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/dollarbearishengulfingcandlestickjan231.gif
Think this might give the nod to commodities……..stocks should still rise until March 15, then idle before the next leg up……maybe.
Thanks Tony.
http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/dollarengulfingbearupdatefeb28.gif
This is the updated chart.
Maybe we should be looking at the TSX to do better.
thanks Fiona … USD correction getting close to a low.
Tony,
As someone still remaining patient in this market, I am starting to see a 1995 like possiblity. Have you every gone back and tried to count waves in 1995? I ask because, while I too am “hoping” for the low 1300′s, 1995 represented NO OPPORTUNITY to get back in. There was NO PULLBACK of more than 2.5% for most of the year. IF liquidity is creating a melt up here, then do we end up with a 1995 all over again? I know the fundamentals are different but I don’t care about that. I wonder if there was a wave count and if there was it looks like that there wasn’t a pullback for nearly the entire year that would have satisfied a 4 count to the extent you are looking for one here. Just curious of your thoughts. This is really frustrating.
Also, the reason I am referencing 1995 is because that was the last time the market started off the year without a pullback of 1% (closing price) for this long a period of time. Actually, it is now even longer. There wasn’t a test of the 50 day until late in the year. You just climbed the 20 day for about 8 months or so.
Hi Michael, There was two corrections in 1995.One after the July high, and the other after the December high.Nov94-Jly95 was an 8 month uptrend.
That was a 20 point correction and less than 4%. I guess my question is, why would one expect a pullback to 1300 when history suggests in other melt ups like this that pullbacks are much smaller and short lived than what would be at least a 70 point correction here if you are right? Again, I hope you are correct but would love some color on the issue as one doesn’t want to wait on something that might not happen. Of course there are no assurances but it would be nice to as educated in our guesses as possible.
Every bull market has its own characteristics.This one has corrected between 87 and 296 points during all six corrections.In fact, every correction but two were over 100 points. The other two were 87 and 95 points.The question should be, when will the correction begin, rather than how much the market will fall.The higher it goes the less meaningful a 100 point correction becomes.We have already had two 6 month + uptrends dueing this bull market.If we are making new highs in March we may not see a correction until May.cheers!
Love oneself, or love oneself and all others. It’s a choice. Your future depends on it. Time is short. Make the choice!
Here’s a note by Wesbury…”Don’t bet on a correction”
http://www.realclearmarkets.com/blog/dont-bet-on-a-correction.pdf
Anyone born in Ann Arbor is fine with me.
I’m a stone’s throw from Ann Arbor in Birmingham…so THANKS !
I live in Ann Arbor!
hahaha … figures!
looking at spx500 futures on 4hr tick, today’s peak looks the start of down wave 4 of an ending diagonal. Can anyone else see this? or have I got this wrong???
1 = 16.02.12 ‘s 1335 to 20.02.12′s 1370 (internal structure of abc)
2 = to 27.02′s 1352 (internal structure of abc)
3 = to 28.02′s 1374 (internal structure of abc)
Thanks Tony
I’m pretty sure where CL is going the next 99 days.
Also I saw Mars wink at me last night.
I’ll be heading to the Center of the known Universe tomorrow.
I’ll be rocking my lap top and smart phone to run my trading/energy empires.
Somebody has to do it.Safe trip.
I count 1377 roughly as 161% of wave from 1158-1267
So, Im trying to figure out if we go past 1377 what the hell the count is then?
I have 1- 1158-1267
2 1267-1202
3 1202-1377
4
5
So… tony, what say you should we plow past 1377? Extension 3rd?
or…. do we just take 1074 to 1292 as 1
1292-1158 as 2
and then use 150-161% of 218 as 3 and forget the short term squiggles?
Cheers
Hi David, See no reason to change the Minor 4 low at 1300.Since Minor 3 was longer than Minor 1, then Minor 5 can go anywhere it wants.But, if Minor 5 zips past 1400 it may not be Minor 5 at all. But Intermediate v of Major 3.We’ll see what the market has in mind.
While SPX has been routinely grinding out obligitory new highs, RUT has been trending sideways — the last high was February 3 at 833. If there isn’t enough risk appetite to keep the small caps in a trend, maybe the big money has withdrawn from the small caps and is riding the last leg up in the large caps.
makes sense Radian
Tuesday, February 28, 2012 Stock Market Trends Update:
http://47ertrends.blogspot.com/