SHORT TERM: new (last?) uptrend high, DOW -2
Overnight the Asian markets were mixed and gained 0.1%. European markets opened higher, but turned mixed gaining 0.4%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened at SPX 1366. The market had closed at SPX 1363 thursday. In the first few minutes the SPX dipped to 1364, and then rallied to 1368 by 10:00. At 10:00 Consumer sentiment was reported higher: 75.3% vs 72.5%, and New homes sales were reported higher: 321K vs 307K. The market then pulled back about three points to SPX 1365 by 11:00 before rallying to a new uptrend high at 1369 by 1:00. With short term negative divergences in place the market started to pullback. Around 2:30 the SPX hit 1363 and then bounced into a 1366 close.
For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.30%. Bonds lost 2 ticks, Crude rallied $2.00, Gold slid $8, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX remains at the 1363 and 1313 pivots, with resistance at the 1372 and then 1386 pivots. Short term momentum is displaying a negative divergence. Last night the FED reported a decline in the M1 multiplier, but a new high in the Monetary base. Today the WLEI ticked up again as the economy continues to improve.
The market opened higher today, then made a new uptrend high around noon. This last rally fits nicely within the wave structure we have been tracking for this entire three month uptrend. While short term this market could move higher, we do see a potentially completed five Minor wave structure from SPX 1159 to 1369. As a result we have marked today’s high with a tentative green Intermediate wave i label. Should today’s high indeed mark the top of this uptrend we would now expect a downtrend to follow, possibly down to the OEW 1261 pivot. We’ll provide some detail in the weekend update. On a more positive note, the DOW broke through the 13,005 level to eliminate the alternate bear market major B wave scenario. Historically, this is now a confirmed bull market. Best to your weekend!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend high SPX 1369
LONG TERM: bull market
CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987
The End of the Line?
Great analysis Tony, thanks.
Hi Tony,
Would a good sell signal be if anyone tries to compare this run to the nineties?
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Hey Tony.
This rally reminds me of 1991- 1996 where there was no such thing as a divergence.
Money is quite debased from said point in time.
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Have a great weekend-
still sticking with
http://almostnrml.blogspot.com/
That was a 13 year bull market.Can imagine seeing that ever again, except for Gold’s 13 year bull market.
Hi Tony et all,
hope you are all good today overseas and look forward to a great weekend…?
My wife tells my always that I have to leave the notebook for the weekend so I have to write now
Maybe its a confusing question but is it possible to make a relationsship between this last high of DJ and SPX (1368,92) to predict a possible equivalent low for DJ?
The wave structure would suggest DOW 12,200
Thank you Tony
best regards and enjoy your weekend!!
Thanks Tony, great work.
Honestly, I was expecting a pullback to 12530 by the end of feb. This pullback, howver, looks very unlikely now.
As we don’t have a bearish alt count anymore, I have one question:
What if the market starts a new downtrend and brakes 1075 (unlikely but possible). How should be labeled the whole structure 666-1371-1075-1369 in that scenario.
Thanks again.
Mario,We wouldn’t have to wait for SPX 1075, breaking 1159 would be enough.The count from 667-1371 would remain the same, but this current uptrend would have been a big B wave.
It could be a B wave because it = A from first of October to end of October, couldn’t it?. That wave traveled 220 points – 1075 to 1295?
Bill,Think we passed the threshold today.
Tony, would you rule out something like this
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=M&yr=14&mn=0&dy=0&id=p54419619349&a=257884777
Sorry can’t open that link properly
Friday, February 24, 2012 Stock Market Trends Update:
http://47ertrends.blogspot.com/
BTW Tony your updates are great!
Thanks for the update Tony. I’m looking forward to this weekend’s update as we approach a possible change in trend.
SP500 Update Buy Pullback February 24 2012…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2012/01/sp500-buy-pullback-until-feb-24-27-2012.html