SHORT TERM: pullback then rally, DOW +46
Overnight the Asian markets were mostly lower, losing 0.3%. European markets opened higher, but closed -0.1%. US index futures were slightly lower overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported slightly higher: 351K vs 348K. The market opened lower at SPX 1356 and continued to pullback. The SPX had closed at 1358 yesterday. In the opening minutes the SPX dropped to 1352, hit oversold, and started to rally. At 10:00 FHFA housing prices were reported positive but lower: +0.7% vs +1.0%. the rally comtinued until 12:30 when the SPX hit 1362. A small pullback followed to SPX 1359 by 1:30. Then the market worked its way higher into a SPX 1363 close.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.70%. Bonds gained 4 ticks, Crude rallied $1.85, Gold was flat, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX rises to the 1363 and 1313 pivots, with resistance now at the 1372 and 1386 pivots. Short term momentum hit oversold this morning, then rose to slightly overbought in the afternoon. Tomorrow, Consumer sentiment and New home sales at 10:00.
The market opened this AM at yesterday’s SPX 1356 low, and continued lower to the low 1350′s, SPX 1352, before rallying for the rest of the day. Today’s drop below SPX 1353 overlaps this Micro wave 4 pullback with the Micro wave 1 high. Yet, a channel has developed, and not a contracting triangle. We’ll just have to see how this new pattern works out. Nevertheless, Micro wave 5 should now be underway, and we should start looking for negative divergences on most timeframes as the SPX approaches new uptrend highs.
Short term support is now at the OEW 1363 pivot then SPX 1352 and 1341. Overhead resistance is at the OEW 1372, and 1386 pivots. Short term momentum has been rising from oversold earlier to slightly overbought at the close. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend high SPX 1368
LONG TERM: bull market
CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987
I lost 3&2 in matchplay today. Gonna get short this close. It’s an anger trade. GL
hahaha
Nice H D !
gl with ur game HD. Looks like ur in Tucson, huh?
T-Town! So we had 89 waves up I think we can get at least 3 back. That’s all I know.
H D, I only counted 37 waves up during this three month uptrend =)
this is what I’ve heard:
)
1. don’t confuse slow progress with lack of progress
2. Mondays are green (HD said so
OK if the market is down on Monday then I said so obviously (mondays green) – I’ll hold myself accountable. Seems to me that we ‘ve converted that broken wedge on 5 min into a channel now…AD line made a new high, didn’t it..
Thanks for the update Tony! happy weekend all!
CB, Yes the 5min SPX looks like a channel.But the DOW looks like a diagonal.
Thanks Tony. Appreciate it.
Ouch, another conundrum
haha that’s why you are the CB … the central banker
haa…confused or conflicted, maybe…if I was one, I’d prbly. kill that CL rally on Monday and tell folks how stimulative it is for the economy (market) again…I mean just looking on the bright side …happy weekend Tony…look like Lee is gonna help you with ur garden work
so it’t not an abc down on 5 min so far? -there is a slight +d there it seems
Hey C B
a lil zig zag ? Sure why not ?
I’m guessing u want Tonys opinion
thanks Lee. I needed a concurring opinion, so you’ve give ne me what I need. I hope the market has heard you.
Whats the call in SPX ?
thanks
BTW HNS intraday in CL
lets see if it doesnt get busted by the time I hit post comment
Ok Ill talk to myself now
Looks like a top
Thanks Tony !
Watch out cause here I come
Lee,You know how to trade these markets better than most.good luck!
Seriously I’ll be in ur neck of the woods again next Wed
I’ve got family matters nothing serious or else I wouldn’t mention it here.
I’ll be getting my Dads tractors charged up and running and bush hogging the paths on the ancestral homestead. The russian olive trees and the downed trees from the Duratio a few years ago has to be dealt with.
I heard it was 72 there yesterday also ..almost a record
I need the ground to be firm
haha Thanks Tony
I’m beat to be honest.
S&P 3rd Wave Mid Term Target
http://www.wavegenius.com/2012/02/24/spspx-visual-6-month-chart-mid-term-upward-3-target/
Hey tony. I just saw on the internet a chart of apple since 1987 that shows 5 perfect waves up. How do you deal with long term charts that look like that. Thanks greg
Greg, We don’t.AAPL went public in 1980, not 1987.We have a long term chart based on that data.
S&P setting up for W1, W2, W3
http://www.wavegenius.com/2012/02/24/spx-visual-10-day-chart-w1-w2-zigzag-w3-setting-up/
1366.69 *
CL on the days low.. Talk about a market where everybodys freaked out
I wont masterpost all day ..everybody seems on hold and quiet
see yas at the closes or until something happens
thanks Lee. well, we’ve just found some support on 1 min – that’s what’s happening in my little world.
Great pic of ur dog Lee – I’ve never see a dog with blue eyes ..that’s pretty rare isn’t it? enjoy ur day Lee. http://screencast.com/t/PKaLPa9z 1 min
CL held the 23.60% week high to low @ 107.96
Hey C B
Hahah Thats just a silly pic I used here back in the day.
I’m dogless at the moment.
I hear ya on support here comes the stops …again
All stops in CL above $109.. Book wiped clean…again
It’s a great pic Lee…and whatever pics of ur dogs you have now must be really precious…..are you thinking about getting a couple of dogs again ?
Hey C B
Going to take a break and travel + Those dogs were like children to me.
The thought of getting new ones right now is not appealing,
They’re a lot of work and they live so long in my personal experience.
\ CL just filled a gap from last May
magic hour coming GL !
sounds like a nice change of pace for you Lee…it kind of goes in cycles it seems..I used to spend so much time flying around a few years ago…now Iam kind of a homebody….Hey, it sounds exciting…I can’t wait for all the travel reports we’re hoping to get from you from all those exotic places you”ll be viviting Lee.
spx-hmm..looks like a little profit taking here , but it’s still kind of early for that..
R1 108.68 R2 109.55 R3 112.04
CL
,” Maybe it’s not the correction that’s in question.But how deep it will be.”
I think that’s the ticket
Lots of potential profit takers in the wings.LTRO ends tuesday
morn
Good trading to ya’ll
cheers!
Cl a cheap short LOL
Morn press afternoon love fest the pattern that would need to break
until then Thank Goodness its Friday !
I’d like to believe we’re approaching a near term high.
The only concern I have is that nearly everybody is saying we’re near a short term high and ready for a correction.
No big deal?
Noticed that too
It’s true but won’t they actually be saying that until there is one!
Since this past Monday when I made my call for a top by the close on March 5th I have also noticed that there are very few people saying that this market will continue higher. It seems as though the majority are expecting some kind of correction. While the market is very overbought the sentiment indicators that I follow are still supportive of more upside.
thanks Ryan, Maybe it’s not the correction that’s in question.But how deep it will be.
I’m thinking the surprise will be a close above 13010 or so and then a huge pop higher – THEN – maybe a pullback…?
GM Tony, Do we have negative divergences to consider at the moment on the daily? I have a cycle turn yesterday – tomorrow and we’re in your 1372 pivot window.
You mentioned oil yesterday with an uptrend target of perhaps 113. Are you expecting to be reached before we have an equity market pullback. It would seem pretty steep though I guess anythings possible.
Igor – well done. About a week ago you said crude looked constructive. It has certainly proved that for longs – NOT ME!
Hi Alex, There are negative divergences everywhere in the equity market. Crude should continue its uptrend regardless of the equity market.
Hi Alex,
I don’t trade oil and it was just my visual impression from the chart, no credit for me.
I don’t know whether you follow Peter Brandt or not but he posted good TA on oil recently:
http://peterlbrandt.com/crude-oil-132-just-ahead/
hi tony,
“http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2012/01/22/has-the-us-housing-market-really-bottomed/”
quote “”Housing prices, as measured by Case-Shiller, are not likely to start rising again until about six months after a new bull market in building permits is confirmed. Therefore, when permits confirm a new bull market housing will be back in a bull market.”"”"
so oew lterm bull market started on 9th jan..
so hw will we determine this ?
Hi Manunidhi, By building permits.We will update from time to time.
Tony, using the low of the 60 minute charts of March 2012 T Bond futures from Tuesday it appears we are in an impulsive wave. I follow time cycles that also justify a low in that time frame. In a strict OEW analysis do you say thats possible or not. TIA
Hi Bill, According to my data, the 10YR yield bottomed @ 1.80% a few weeks ago.And, it looks like it’s trying to uptrend.Yields, however, have been in a trading range for four months.
A little more on my pick SODA. It has a market cap of 865 million and only has a float of 13 million shares. 7.5 million shares are sold short, an unbelieveable 62% of the float. It sells for 30 times earnings and growing very fast. It is a great little company, with a great product that saves people money. They will make most of their money from selling the drink mix over and over. With such a small float this stock could be explosive.
Wave C down may have already started…. =)
I find this interesting…..
http://ee.md.it-finance.com/MDV8/tmp/img_be98c6445deb84c5ac13676457d7647ba1284553e80c9ba6041b85cadcddb484.gif
Thanks Tony as always.
This was a submission from Preston on Solarcycles (John Hampson’s new blog)
http://solarcycles.net/2012/02/23/solar-cycles-and-astro-trading/
A different count by Ed Handley – convinced this is still a secular bear market (Feb. 23 broadcast).
http://www.edhandley.com/
- dono
Highest Short Term 3rd Wave Targets For DOW S&P NASDAQ
http://www.wavegenius.com/2012/02/23/elliott-wave-forecast-video-for-2-24-12-highest-3rd-wave-target-for-spx-dow-nasdaq/
Tony,
Is this the Current count
Minor 5, Minute 5, Micro 5
Length of Micro 1: 53 pts (1300 to 1353)
Length of Micro 3: 31 pts (1337 to 1368)
Wave 3 cannot be shortest wave, so MIcro 5 < 31 pts or S&P <1382
Any scenario in which micro 5 can exceed 1382?
Once Micro 5 is over, then so is Minor 5, Minute 5, and Major 3 (180 pt wave if 1382 is max).
Major 4: 0.236 to 0.386 retracement? 1339 to 1313.
Thanks,
Aaron
Hi Aaron, You count is correct, but your numbers are off.Micro 1 1321Micro 2 1307Micro 3 1354Micro 4 1337Micro 5 underway.Since 3 is longer than 1, 5 can end anywhere it wants. cheers!
Thanks Tony,
Hard to keep minor, minute, and micro in check.
You mentioned at one time that you felt that minute 5 would be less than minute 3 (47 pts). Since minute 5 started at 1337, then it should end at or before 1383.
Do you still feel that this scenario will play out?
I know the markets tell us what it has already done and not what it will do.
Thanks
Aaron
Aaron, Yes, it could end any day now.
Hi Aaron,
this summary was very helpful… maybe one day I can do that for you
best regards to you and everybody
Thanks for the compliment.
I was however wrong with the summary since I was writing about minute waves not micro waves
In all honesty, I found this site 1 week ago, and I am trying to learn as quickly as possible. Here is what I have learned from the charts: We are currently in the following count:
Primary III: Started @ 1075 in October 2011. It has 5 major waves. We are in Major 3
Major 3: Started @ 1159 on 11/28/2011. It has 5 Minor Waves. We are in Minor 5
Minor 5: Started @ 1300 on 01/30/2012. It has 5 Minute Waves. We are in Minute 5
Minute v: Started @ 1337 on 02/10/2012. It has 5 Micro Waves. We are in Micro 5
Micro 5: Started today @ 1353.
That is as far down the list as I want to go. Look at the 5 min chart that Tony posted a few days ago. It shows minute v in green, Micro is in orange. The chart shows through micro 3 (among other possibilities). Today, Tony stated that micro 4 ended at 1353 and that micro 5 is most likely underway
Soon, Major 3, Minor 5, Minute v, and micro 5 will all come to an end.
At that point Major wave 4 will start. Elliott Wave states that this wave cannot overlap Major 1, so the lowest target to end Major 4 (and thus the pullback) is 1293.
A guideline I recent learned about suggests that Major 4 will retrace 0.236 to 0.382 of Major 3.
If so, then the target should be 1313 to 1339.
Tony, if I am wrong about the count shown above, then I really am completely lost. I put a spreadsheet together based on your charts, so I think the summary above is correct.
Thanks Tony for all your work on this site
Aaron, One point.Between Major waves and Minor waves are Intermediate waves.PrimaryMajor IntermediateMinor MinuteMicro.The legend is at the begining of the chart link:http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987
Thanks to both of you! Great Aaron! I was trying to figure out these things but lost myself in the different waves…
Thanks once again to both of you…!
I second that Aaron, your sponge holds more then mine.
TC
Many Markets Approaching
Short Term Highs
and sell signals.
thanks Scotty
ASTRO Moon Cycle…February 23 2012…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2012/02/astro-moon-cyclefebruary-23-2012.html
Thursday, February 23, 2012 Stock Market Trends:
http://47ertrends.blogspot.com/
Tony,woof woof
Mucho Gracias Antonio
Know you like to ride that bronc