SHORT TERM: futures open lower but end higher, DOW (YM) +21
Overnight the Asian markets were mostly lower losing 0.7%. European markets opened lower but closed +0.9%. US SPX futures (ES) opened lower overnight but recovered to close +2.75, and the NDX futures (NQ) gained 10.75. Bonds lost 3 ticks, Crude rallied 90 cents, Gold added $4, and the USD was lower. A fairly quiet holiday trading session. The markets have hardly responded to all the sovereign debt downgrades on friday. Best to your holiday!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market
CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987
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Tony
I see some tornadoes just SE of you today.
Crazy
Lee, There was a straight line thunderstorm right over us this AM.Looked like an arrow.Temps up to 65 degrees, nothing happened, now their plummeting.Weather around here as volatile as the markets at times.
Looking for 5th wave up of abc correction.
thx swany
were u born in 1963 ? If so ur pretty old
Ha! I wish I were that old….or young.
OK, I can take this hit
just as soon as I am done watching this movie here….
Gee, yes, I am THAT old , and I also sometimes move my stops…and that’s almost a calamity, isn’t it…..OK, works for me, though…60 % of the time..
Hey Swany
I was born in 64 ‘
Hey C B
Hey as long as ur consistent
We’re all baby boomer love children
yep, getting old mandatory, growing up optional
…so you are one year younger and soooo much more disciplined, Lee….Happy hunting in GA !
Well guys
I see the bears moved their stops again and are growling in ES
What do u guys think ?
13 waves up from 1202.
That’s sounds good enough !
right at the gap fill from Friday
If u move ur hard stops when a trades going against you thats not a system IMO
GL guys
1291 pivot time….gulp we’ll get overlap if 1287 falls. I still think we have 1 last wave up. Too greedy prolly.
You ES/SPX traders are the greedy type.
P
I think I just heard a double tap on a tree ?
Looks pretty tired to me. Short interest at 7 year low, AAII sentiment is pretty happy, nice fibb spot at 1300, Tony’s 13 waves up…. seems like there are lots of toppy signs.
In looking at things a couple months ahead, I’ve decided I won’t go net long anytime before April. The game being played by Greek creditors is most likely to come to the brink, all the way to the March 20 debt due date. The holdouts have no incentive to cave sooner than that. It could feel/look a lot like our own ridiculous game with the debt ceiling.
I’m not saying that an agreement won’t be made; that could very well happen. Just don’t expect anything until the last minute.
Short Term Zigzag Scenarios for S&P 500
http://www.wavegenius.com/2012/01/17/short-term-zigzag-scenarios-for-spx-2-day-visual/
1303 pivot, just realized that was hit perfectly. Round #’s though. This smells like sideway under R. Can you smell it?
That is a story since Dec 20. This time I think 1300 will hold till Friday – options expiration week.
Actually this story has a name – the uptrend.
Igor, Second monday holiday of the year opens tuesday with a gap up.
Yes Tony. Can you imagine frustration of all traders who closed their positions before a long weekend only to realize on Tuesday that they again missed a gap up.
1375 = Min. Target in 3rd wave in the S&P 500?
http://www.wavegenius.com/2012/01/17/spx-visual-3-month-chart-minimum-upward-3-target-1375/
Guys I’m back to DR CL
I feel there’s plenty of MUCH more qualified SPX / ES specialists here.
If ur feeling blue trading the equities just call me @ 1 800 DOC- CLEE
You picked a wild tiger Doc!
Just dialed the # and got a nice sounding lady
That was me Patrick..why did u just breathe heavy and hang up ?
Alert-
Sell at Gann Resistance line ?
CL held the .618 @ 100.95 from 97.70 – 102.98
99.04 is big
Ok guys I’m taking a break from the mkt for a minute .
What’s the call rest of the month ?
Joy are u around ?
Enjoy! anyplace interesting?
North Georgia woods
thanks Sir CL
U bet Tony
Looks like it could be impulsive off last weeks low.
Well find out .berry berry soon
Pardon my ignorance but what’s CL? TIA Tommy!
Hey Tommy
here ya go http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude_contract_specifications.html
Crude mini
Mini Crude is QM
hahaha … sorry
Haaa Tony can u imagine CL being the mini of Mega CL ?
No thanks
Feels like a mini to me
CLX could be a tanker then.
Thanks fellas!
Natgas- apparently they are making more of that
Oh no u din int !
Good morning! Everyone rested and ready to go?
GM!
Since EU credit and EU banks have been in focus lately here is an EWT observation of the Societe General (French Bank). The worst might be over?
Weekly
http://screencast.com/t/Ape8brGZ0ZDu
Daily
http://screencast.com/t/gsuygW5njL
thanks Magnus
Mondays are always green ™ let’s see if sellers come in at 1295 again. very mild dips
Are you joking??? 1350 next stop before the bear porn starts up again
I think we will find a top tonight or tomorrow morning. Markets have a habit of hanging up into expiry. 1304 – 1310 SPX shorting targets for me currently to end the minor 3. I will be looking for 1250 – 70 on the way down as first support/bottom for minor 4 (near end of Jan) and a possible buying opportunity for a potential minor 5 upwards after that.
At 1250 – 70 juncture and if gold hasn’t broken 1560 – 80 on a close I will look to enter on the buy side of gold and probably oil as well. Stops wouldn’t be far below.
thanks Alex
Hey pooch!
not joking at all. Mondays are always green™ Today is Tuesday though and I’ve been on a pattern for 1257-1296-1271-1304 into the 18th. I think we see a retrace before the big move.
Small pullback here this morning but likely to try again for higher at some point today. Nice short here and higher over the next day or two I think. I would be happy with a high tomorrow HD.
Hey H.D. actually looking for a top 1305-12 then pullback we shall see,so guess iam right behind you
Banks maintenance period with the ECB ends Wednesday 17th. The day after ECB lower the minimum reserve requirements for Banks from 2% to1%. The minimum reserve requirement is currently €200Bn+.
This means another “potential” €100Bn+ searching its way to markets.
There are discussions ongoing whether the LTROs and change of reserve requirements make any difference for yields since it is not obvious from looking at the daily ECB deposit figures. There are many ways money is transmitted through the system and then finaly ending up in the bank system again. See the following link
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/01/13/832701/
No with the S&P “worry” resolved (Fitch and Moody on hold) we might have a “trigger”. Mr Market will tell us soon IMHO.
QE started in late 2009.http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/XRCB
Thanks Tony, now that there is no chance for any long term inflection point, shouldn’t the bearish counts be removed ?
Thanks Tony
Enjoy the weather !
thanks Lee, 50′s and breezy, a nice break