SHORT TERM: market rebounds, DOW +136
Overnight the Asian markets were mostly lower losing 0.5%. Europe opened higher and closed +1.40%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 381K vs 364K. The market opened higher at SPX 1253 and continued to rally. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI came in slightly lower: 62.5 vs 62.6. Then at 10:00 Pending homes sales were reported positive: +7.3% vs +10.4%. The rally continued until just before 11:00 when the SPX hit 1260. A pullback just past 11:00 to SPX 1257 followed, and then the market moved higher. Nearing the close the SPX hit 1264, and ended the day at 1263.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +1.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.85%. Bonds gained 3 ticks, Crude added 35 cents, Gold slid $7.00, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX moves back to 1261 and then 1240, with resistance at 1291 and then 1303. Short term momentum rose from extremely oversold yesterday to overbought today. Tomorrow, nothing on the economic calendar. Happy new year!
Inflection points long, medium, and short term. Reviewing the charts after yesterday’s new uptrend high, and pullback, we found the major indices at a very interesting juncture. Under a bearish scenario we can count the DOW having completed five waves down from May11 to Oct11 to end a Major A. Then a three wave, abc, Major B wave possibly completing at the recent highs. The recent DOW highs exceeded the October highs for a clean abc advance. A five wave Major C down would be next. The SPX offers a similar view, yet with the Intermediate c wave, of the abc Major B advance, ending with a failed c. As the current uptrend high is about 2% shy of the October high. The NDX/NAZ uptrend fell short on two parameters. The high occurred early in December, not late, at about 3% shy of the October high. And the entire advance from the early October low looks like a triangular Major B wave. Under a bullish scenario the SPX and NDX/NAZ have a lot of catching up to do. The first few weeks of January are likely to be quite telling.
Short term OEW charts remain positive, as they have since a week ago tuesday. Support here remains in the upper end of the OEW 1240 pivot. Short term support is at SPX 1261 pivot range, then SPX 1250. Short term resistance is at SPX 1278, then the 1291 pivot range. Short term momentum continues to rise after yesterday’s extremely oversold condition and ended overbought. Tomorrow ends the week, month and year. Happy holidays!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: inflection point
CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987
Tony, thanks for a wonderful site and all your hard work. Thanks everyone for sharing your knowledge. Best Wishes to all of you for 2012!
happy new year CB!
Tony, what is your opinion on oil? Happy New Year, and thanks for your generosity, time, and dedication to this blog.
Catch,Looks like Crude will end the year with a confirmed downtrend.See support around $93
Tony, from this side of the Atlantic. Thank you for all the superb analysis and insights during 2011. A year that has been somewhat harder over here.
Happy New Year!
happy new year Magnus
Today’s gold move. Dead cat bounce, or did it make a bottom in December (2011) instead of Jan/Feb (2012)? Happy New Year?
Hey Mike
U could hear on pin drop on that subject today in the blogosphere Silver included.
That’s the big money question . Happy New Year !
Thanks Lee! I think Tony knows the answer. Happy New (and prosperous) Year to you, and ALL!!
Mike,Removed the hedge on my core position, if that’s what you mean?
I was mostly interested in your current opinion on gold, taking into account today’s rally, which pulled back quite a bit. People’s opinion on gold are all over the place now, from an end to the bull, to a major correction into next year, to a bottom is already in. Any further thoughts would be appreciated. Thanks Tony!
Maybe Patrick will respond.
As a trade, tough to say. As a trend, much easier. Terry Laundry’s T-theory has the right side of the bullish gold T out past 2020. Smart Money Tracker is also looking for much higher prices on both gold and sliver (after we bottom…whenever that my be??) Both have attractive track records.
1257 S&P to start 2011. My bet is that THE BEN BERNANK closes the S&P above that level to call it a positive year. Mid January low – (maybe a panic) that will allow THE BERNANK to institute a new round of quantitative easing??? to once again rally the markets beyond reality!
)
Tony and all, thanks for a great year of entertainment and prognostication on the blog.
Wishing everyone a Happy and Profitable New Year.
( Lee, step away from the eggnog
Randy
happy new year Randy!
Hey Randy !!
Hqappy New Year !!
Funds have vested interest to close the year positive… above 1258 will do it. We should see a low made on 3rd Jan, possibly gapping down. A bounce to 5th Jan, and a major low made 17th Jan.
Current time cycles are pressuring a movement lower with the Hurst cycle due next week, the 10 TD low on 10th Jan, full moon on 9th Jan and major cycle low on 17th Jan, coinciding with the 55 TD from 28th Oct peak. Plus, the daily indicators are overbought and looks to cross down
anytime. They are nowhere near a bottom yet.
Stay short till 17th Jan.
Amazing,
Exactly what my “Market Map” has been saying for 3 weeks.
Just amazing
Really, it does coincide with yours ? Great, double assurance. Happy new year.
For those who follow T-Theory, Terry Laundry has mapped out what he calls a Ringing Cycle Low to occur Jan 22-24. Their last Ringing Cycle Low was nailed on Oct 3, so it does seem like many different roads are all leading to the same general conclusion.
Random Acts
The T-Theory people are one of the highest
visiting entities that come to my blog.
Monthly chart on S&P & Dow look like they are forming the right shoulder of a h&s that targets approx 880 on the S&P
Am watching 12105 (10mSMA) on Dow to see if closes at/below this level today. Wouldn’t think Dow would break above the 10mSMA if it is forming a h&s
thanks MC,happy new year!
Merry New Year MCK !
1261 *
happy new year Lee!
Haaaaaaaapy New Year TONY !
My end of year market harmonics and notes:
http://www.twitlonger.com/show/f1kosu
Cheers all
D
And more tidbits of harmonics
Nov 28th pivot low was 144 days from the Jul 7 pivot highs, 32 days from the Oct 27 highs and 55 fibonacci days from the Oct 4 lows.
The rally from Nov 28th inclusive to tomorrow will be 32 days as well, and 34 fibonacci days on Sunday. 13 fibonacci weeks from the Oct 4 lows ends tomorrow, and 8 fibonacci trading days from Dec 20th turn is tomorrow. I’d say plenty of reasons for bulls to get nervous.
Maybe bears get nervous,break of 1270 and what does Tuesday bring.Huge gap up?
Gotta LOVE all this bearishness in bloggersphere. Sentiment hovering near generational lows certainly not a market TOP indication. 1999-2000 type sentiment is what makes tops. Couldn’t get ANYONE to believe we were in trouble in early 2000 and EVERYONE thought I was nuts. Now just the opposite – “the world is ending”. Likely to see a “one sided” market (up) for some duration coming soon. SP up 40% in 2012 – ya heard it here first.
happy new year Tommy
Ditto Tony and thanks so much for this forum!
Happy New Year Tommy Boyyyy !
I wouldn’t call 50% Bulls generational lows
Per recent Sentiment Traders report.
Observational consensus appears to have been/is buy high yielding stocks.XLU outperformed all nine SPX sectors this year.And, the higher yielding DOW outperformed the other majors every quarter this year.This suggests investors are defensively neutral to bullish.
Scotty…talking about general macro sentiment. Sentment Traders , AAII and others neutral – last couple weeks. But bloggersville and the “street” have been super bearish ever since the bottom. This sentiment has even goten worse. Talk to anyone from your cabbie to your hairdresser or review 90% of financial blogs to catch the real feelings out there. This said we’re due for yet another pullback to once again scare the masses. Longer term however positioning for the launch to new highs – the last 6 months have been good for this. Happy 2012!
TB,
I agree, there are many willing to follow EWI into the abyss. I hope this low into mid-jan
will get the bulls down near 20% and then we can launch into what I think might be the 3rd of the 3rd of the 3rd. I will have a projection in the next week or two that is gonna blow most peoples socks off.
HAPPY NEW YEAR
It is one of several indicators that I look at. It is also why I wait for the cross before acting. Also, take a look at the Fib Fan drawn from 1010-1370. We slammed up against it several times and it is happening again. The same fib fan from 2006-2007 provided the same resistance as the market made its last move higher in May of 2008 at 1440. The fan line today is providing the same resistance. Also of note, the Fib Fan from 1370-1074 (78.6%) intersects the 1010-1370 fan line (61.8%) at around 1273ish tomorrow (in the next couple of days). Stock charts does not allow for the 78.6% retrace line but that is the fan line that is intersecting the 61.8% from 1010-1370.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=0&id=t48841675740&a=243753337&r=4912&cmd=print
Oh, and I would ignore the BLUE fan line for the time being. I have it drawn in (667-1370) but it has not yet proven to be meaningful. The 667-1219 however has been amazing. Check it out below.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=2&mn=11&dy=0&id=t26472936789&a=248174651&r=9395&cmd=print
oy vey, sorry for the added post. I meant to ignore the blue fan line from the post at 8pm not the one from above at 804pm. The one from above is the the one that has been amazingly meaningful.
thanks .
Tony,
Have you ever published a long term EW count for interest rates? If so could you provide me a link. TIA
Hi Bill, This is the latest:http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2010/12/16/us-govt-bonds/
Thanks, all!
Dec. 30 – Jan. 4 should be short-term bottom, after that, up for a while – according to my experience-proved and tested cycles. Otherwise, if that doesn’t work out, drastic crash to be expected at or shortly after Jan. 4.
The money is made in the markets by taking a stake at the extremes, unfortunately it is always the hardest emotionally to do so as we all know. Back around Thanksgiving in the 1150′s the market was stretched low and going long was difficult, but the turn was coming. On Dec 20th yet another low, and a turn window… from 1203 we rallied 67 points. Now at 1263 or so, and almost 8 fibonacci days from the turn and 13 fibonacci weeks from the Oct 4 lows… it seems we are yet again an an inflection point. Taking a short position here is what I am doing, but for sure its nerve racking.. yet, that seems to always be the right time to make a counter intuitive stance.
Best of luck to all, thanks Scotty and Valu for your great inputs
Great call David. It is always the most difficult to trade with your own money on line. Great points in the post.
David,
This is where the psychological aspects of money management
can alleviate the stress of trading. If a relatively small % of your capital is on the line
you trade with a clearer…….. more objective head.
More on this in 2012.
Hey everybody,
GOLD CRASHING next few days ?
http://markethighsandlows.wordpress.com/
Market moving up into the 26-29th window I discussed last week. 8 Fibonacci trading days tomorrow counting the 20th turn, 13 fibonacci weeks from Oct 4 low. Market could top and correct hard into Jan10/11-15 area, rally… then top by March 7th is my general view.
I posted that I was scaling into TZA on Tuesday 25.31-25.80 and I added today in 26.27 ranges on average on the pullback from 27 fwiw
As Tony says, we may need to wait til next week to find out what is what… in any event I continue to stick with the most probable scenario being a secondary bull market high completing shortly with a top no later than March 7. I’m trying to swing trade a good pullback here near term.
Best of luck to all
D
Good stuff ! Thanks Tony !
I’m going to trade huge size and not use stops in 2012
I’m heading out to Walgreens to take a head shot for my pic in my Forbes 100 spread
Lee,Say hello to Paulson while you are there
lol, Lee!
OMG, I am so not doing THAT again!…it was fun to do that sometimes in 2007-2008 though..
Happy Holidays, and Happy New Year (in advance) Tony! At this point, do you have any probabilities for the bearish vs. the bullish scenarios (say 40-60, bearish to bullish)?
happy new year Mike,SPX technicals still leaning to the downside
MACD and RSI are forming terrific BEARISH divergences on the 60 minute charts. If one takes a look at the 1292 high RSI was at 77 and now at 58. MACD was at 8.5 and now in the 1′s. If we can poke above 1269 with those bearish divergences in tact, it might be the beginning of the next leg down. Of course, it will be a terrific head fake for those that look at the 200 dma and the weekly MACD which is about to cross the 0 line. What a whipsaw that will be!
Thanks for the updates, Tony and Scotty.
Val, great points, absolutely….and nice charts as always – I’ve just looked at your SPX chart see what you mean.. the whole thing is that markets don’t seem to like neutrality a whole lot, though. They just have to ‘over-do it’…, so where does it leave us right now?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p67104277763&a=244530375&r=565&cmd=print
You can see from the chart above that waiting for the two to confirm divergences consistently works.
I’ll be waiting, not only for the market to move above 1269, but for the 60 minute MACD to cross back down (assuming it crosses up first). Now, the high might be 1270 at the top of the Bollinger Band or quite a bit higher than that. The key is to make sure the bearish divergence on RSI and MACD are in tact and that MACD begins to rollover for confirmation. I don’t think it is too far from here. It is sometimes painful to watch the market move away from you in anticipation of that next opportunity but patience will win.
thx mike
Thanks very much, Valunvstr. Agree with you that we’re getting OB here on intraday (while still neutral on the daily). Markets are a pain in the neck, for sure : missing out on a move hurts, losing money hurts, buying high & selling higher is difficult to do but can be very rewarding…. being uncomfortable most of the time is kind of the name of the game ….Overbought/oversold conditions are something some traders really like, while others prefer to stay away from … just a matter of personal preference. Objectively , though, OB/OS means that that’s where the largest price moves occur, so they are pretty irresistible to some.
It’s also interesting that some neg. divs. on 1hr charts can persist for quite a while the market rallies off of posit. divs on lower time frames. before finally returning to the “problem” area after some time (like the neg. div.@ the end of Oct.) . So the market does what it wants to do when it wants to do it….and it forces us to watch several time frames simultaneously….and that’s why we hate it (I mean, love it) sooo much… : )
Thanks again for your charts and explanations, Valunvst. Much appreciated. Sorry ..this is too long
oops…”neg. divs. on 1hr…..persist for quite a while, while the market…