SHORT TERM: new uptrends highs in quiet trading, DOW -3
Overnight the Asian markets open lost 0.7%. European markets fared better gaining 0.2%. US index futures were slightly lower overnight. At 9:00 Case-Shiller reported a 1.2% decline in housing prices for the recent month. The market opened lower at SPX 1263, dipped to 1262, and then started to rally. The SPX had closed at 1265 on friday. Around 10:00 the SPX hit 1269, a new uptrend high, and then started to pullback. Also at 10:00 Consumer confidence was reported higher: 64.5 vs 56.0. At 11:00 the SPX had retraced only four points to 1265, and then started to drift higher. At 2:00 the SPX hit 1269 again, and again started to pullback. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1265 and closed there.
For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.25%. Bonds gained 5 ticks, Crude rallied $1.70, Gold dropped $13.00, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX remains at 1261 and then 1240, with resistance at 1291 and then 1303. Short term momentum declined after being extremely overbought to neutral. Tomorrow, the economic calendar is clear.
The market rallied in the first half hour of trading to a new uptrend high at SPX 1269. After a pullback to SPX 1265 by 11:00 the day was essentially over as the market stayed within that four point range for the rest of the day. Short term OEW charts remain positive with support now around the upper end of the OEW 1240 pivot range. Short term support remains at the 1261 pivot range, SPX 1250, and the 1240 pivot range. Short term resistance is at SPX 1278, then the 1291 and 1303 pivot ranges. Technical indicators suggest the market may now be in a minor 10+ point pullback from today’s high. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: DOW confirmed uptrend, others majors likely to follow
LONG TERM: inflection point
CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987
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http://www.apmex.com/Product/65202/2012_1_oz_Silver_American_Eagle_Jan_18.aspx
Just 20% over spot ! What a deal !!!
SLV is under spot.
True Dat !
I’m $15 bid for infinity
nothing is rare.
http://elite.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=mcp&ty=c&ta=1&p=d
wow Chinese 1 Kilo Panda gold coin is sold out…this stuff is hotter than hot …
“Short term support remains at the 1261 pivot range, SPX 1250, and the 1240 pivot range.” From your Tuesday Report, Tony. The low thus far is 1250.05. Pretty good.
If you could figure out how to narrow it down from three support levels to just one, that would really be a tremendous trading tool.
Setting up for a very strong signal at tomorrow’s (Thursday’s) close.
Catch, Two levels is lowest I usually go.
u guys buying this ? http://screencast.com/t/jclKPCl4L
Hi C B
1244.75 was a S3 on my ESH charts I took the op to cover a trade but I am not long so its probably a good spot to be so
Hi Lee. Thanks! Nice short.
I only got a small piece of that (You are right some of us need to get up earlier 
. I hope I can trail this now to abt 1259 and see what happens…
Tony, so R U saying that ur grandson got a puppy for Christmas and YOU have to get up early to take care of it now ?
CB, No we still have a puppy from early summer.
Oh yes, Gerony…I remember you told us a while ago, Tony…the perfect countryside living just has to come with a puppy, right : ) Can U show us a pic sometime when you get a chance? We need some puppy love here sometimes …lol
Hi tony
Dollar looking strong.
This pull back looks a bit strong as a result of the strength in the dollar.
This has gone beyond a 10 point pull back, how low is ok, before a iv wave count gets negated?
Thanks
G
G, Does not look like anything unusual is going on.Wave ii pullback was 13 points, so 15 points for wave iv.Overlap area is at 1243.
You guys need to get up earlier in the morning
Just get a puppy
Haaaa indeed ! I hear ur in a winter wonderland at least for a day
1/2 inch … melted by noon
Full “Sell Signal” for indexes this morning 9:55 am ET
Tanks Scotty !
Think it will !
Hi
Thanks tony for your response.
G
SPX and VIX were both up on the same day… and my observation is that usually precedes a change in trend. SInce we were rising into a turn window of 23 Dec, that should be a high and selling could start anytime and continue into the 20 week Hurst low in the first week of Jan.
In Elliot wave, we are still in that bearish wedge. Either we have completed it during globex, or we will only have an ABC corrective wave in the cash markets from the 1202 low. Hourly chart of SPX has signaled an MACD sell. Now waiting for daily to do the same.
http://timeandspiral.wordpress.com/
thanks T&S
Thanks
Get er done
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Hi Tony
Just wondering what your wave count is from 1202 low. Have you got i, ii, iii (1269) finished and now expecting a small pull back for iv and then a v final. Would you expect this to go over 1269 and be finished by 29th December, the date that you mentioned in your weekend post as a possible top? And is this a major top that you expect on this date or just a mini top with more upside to come?
Thanks
G
Hi GK, Yes, see a i-ii-iii, and potentially iv underway, off the 1202 low.Was expecting a high tomorrow, but it looks like it will take more time.Unless the market gets volatile these next few days.
Hi Tony , finally got around to looking at long term charts on Gold.. my two cents..
a) Iran says will close Hormuz on sanctions. Oil promptly reacts yet Gold barely bats an eyelid. At the end of every cycle the cats and dogs seem the strongest. Oil has been the dog of the latest commodity bull market and now its starting to bark..One wonders whether this leg of the commodity bull market is over..
b) Also I concur that Gold has never done something since 2008 in fact I can say that the metal has done something which it has not done for the whole bull market.. It has never broken down with such ferocity.. Now, its impossible to quantify “ferocity” but looking at the candle weekly charts .. does not feel good
c) Finally fiscal austerity in a balance sheet recession is the perfect reciepe for a disaster.. it will bring deflation followed by the mother of all QE i.e the Great Reset. So my favourite is chart four.. I will keep on holding Gold as a hedge against the INR since I shudder to think where the INR will be if the US market does indeed collapse..The whole of 2011 the media was focussed on China hard landing. For the first time I hear the word India hard landing. As a consequence Foreign outflows out of Indian stocks were relatively benign in 2011 but may gather a tremendous pace in 2012 if the concept of India hard landing takes root in the psyche of investors..
ciao
Ciao Anando, China, not always in sync with the rest of the world, has been in a bear market since 2007.India, always for me difficult to count, has been in a bear market since right after the election euphoria in 2009.In fact, it’s pattern has looked similar to several troubled European countries.With Crude back over $100 it is not good for either of these economies.I remember in 2008 Gold peaked in the spring and Crude in the summer, while the US kept stating the subprime problem is under control.Gold peaked late-summer early-fall this time and Crude is still rising, while Europe keeps stating they have the sovereign debt problem under control.While I do not see a repeat of 2008, since Central banks know how to counter-balance a crisis now.The markets may force europe’s hand in the new year to get the problem resolved sooner than later.As a result I presently tend to favor chart #3.http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2011/12/18/gold-bull-or-bear/
Hi Tony, if Gold bull market over, what’s the target for bear phase?
Dave … $800
Hi Tony
Hope you had a great Christmas.
Just confirming scenario 3 does not talk about of end of bull run right. If this is D wave what would be the retracement levels?
Sai
Hi Scat, Have been posting this:Short term support remains at the 1261 pivot range, SPX 1250, and the 1240 pivot range.
Sorry Tony for the confusion I. Was referring to gold in my question.
Thanks
Sai
Hi Sai, First line of support should be $1535.Next support at $1470.
I am looking for TBonds to be a sell on Thursday. Short term cycles are topping. Longer term cycles are in a topping time frame. Looking for a move lower into March-April of next year. Inital target 130 on spot TBond futures.
Scotty, I also think there may be a gap in the 1150′s no? Good stuff, rhymes with my E wave patterns.
David I tend to look at price targets as I get closer in time (I’m basically a time trader)
Problem with price is after 40 years of various methods I can give you 20 different prices. As you get closer in time they get weeded out. And the the best area usually turns out to be near an inner trading band.
1155 is still open from 10/7/11.
Attention all Caldaro Cadets !!!!
Early Warning Sell Signal
http://markethighsandlows.wordpress.com/2011/12/27/update-12-27-new-mkt-map/
ASTRO Update Venus Latitude Reversal…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2011/12/astro-venus-latitude-reversal.html
ASTRO December 27 2011…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2011/12/astro-december-27-2011.html
Started building TZA today in tranches 25.86 to 25.35, will build tomorrow and thursday to complete. Market continues to form interim top.
NAS Time Ratio 61.8…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2011/12/nas-time-ratio618.html