SHORT TERM: market adds to gains, DOW +62
Overnight the Asian markets were mixed, ending flat. Europe opened higher and gained 1.3%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 Q3 GDP was reported +1.8% vs +2.0%, and weekly Jobless claims ticked down: 364K vs 366K. The market opened higher at SPX 1247, dipped to 1244, and continued to rally. At 10:00 Consumer sentiment was reported higher: 69.9 vs 67.7, Leading indicators were positive: +0.5% vs +0.9%, but FHFA housing prices declined: -0.2% vs -0.1%. The market hit SPX 1252 around this time, pulled back a few points, and then drifted higher. At 1:30 the SPX hit 1255 and then went into a narrow trading range, in quiet trading, ending the day at 1254.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.70%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.80%. Bonds gained 2 ticks, Crude added 75 cents, Gold dipped $7.00, and the USD was flat. Support for the SPX remains at 1240 and then 1222, with resistance at 1261 and then 1291. Short term momentum nearly hit extremely overbought, but backed off. Tomorrow, Durable goods orders, Personal income/spending, and PCE prices at 8:30. Then New home sales at 10:00.
The market opened higher today as the SPX made a higher high for the third day in a row. After monday’s decline to SPX 1202 the market has rallied to 1255. Just 12 points below the uptrend high, and only 38 points below the October high at SPX 1293. This market is still on track to make an uptrend high by Dec 29th. Short term OEW charts remain positive from tuesday at about 10:00, with support now at the lower end of the 1240 pivot range. Short term resistance is at the 1261 pivot range, (which was entered today), SPX 1278, and then the 1291 pivot range. Support is at the 1240 pivot range, SPX 1230, and then the 1222 pivot range. Best to your trading, and happy holidays!
MEDIUM TERM: DOW in confirmed uptrend, other majors not
LONG TERM: inflection point
CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987
yeah and i just covered my nflx shorts from 300.
kudos stockpro!Is CMG next?
Booked out on half of my Spx longs at 1262 here, I see a nice symmetrical triangle formation in Spx similar to gold when it was around 1720, but I would favor an upside breakout here
Market climbing according to script into the 29th max. Riding my Jan 110 calls on BIDU from 6.93 nicely, will close out likely today though. I am slowly working into TZA position at 25.86 here just starter shares, will be adding Tue-Thur next week on pullbacks in TZA (rally in market).
Continue to see a top on or around 29th, a drop into Jan 10th/11th that could be harsh…
Or… I could end up wrong. Mostly Im watching the dates, and letting price action drift upwards and not likely to get short aggressive til latter next week.
Best
D
Tony,as expected market following exactly what I’ve predicted,now it should go on till the new year without much of a correction towards 1320+ levels.As of now my view is same since market bottomed for primary A wave @1075 in oct’11 is that we are in primary B wave of ongoing bear market,can go till 1350 kind of level next year before it ends and the primary C wave starts.
Merry Christmas to you all and happy holidays.
Nice call Joy.
Happy holiday Joy,Nice calls!We have significant overhead resistance between 1313-1327, centered at 1316.Would watch that area carefully for signs of market deterioration.
best performer in the high risk portfolio yesterday was $dmnd at +10.2%.
Hedged long position: Sold Dec.30 ES 1250C@14.25
Bought Dec.30 ES 1270P@22.00
Will remove hedge if or when SPX clears 1260.
On my real trading.. got seriously whooped on my HSCEI shorts and less so in HSI and Kospi..There too the pain trade is to be long and am now positioned max long in all the three….The only silver lining in the cloud to all this bullishness is that the sensex will likely follow with a lag providing a nice set up for going short next year and help make up for lost time and money.. till then fingers crossed !!!
While the weekly chart of the erstwhile leader Nasdaq continues to suggest that the big money trade may still be on the short side..yesterday’s price action throws up an interesting dilema…Both the Dow and SPX are in firm uptrends in both the daily chart and weekly ….while Nasdaq continues to struggle..even on the daily charts the bias on the Nasdaq is still negative… Is Facebook a fad or has it changed our lives ? that is the question Nasdaq is trying to answer i suppose after Zygna flop…given that the daily has now confirmed an uptrend on the Dow and SPX the pain trade is to be long…IF i were an U.S. trader I wud be long the dow or spx as of close yesterday..every fibre of my being is against the trade given the Nasdaq chart.. and the analyst inside me is 100% sure that it will make a loss and the best that I can hope for is breakeven.. but as a trader I have no choice but to be long here…like a moron
Hi Anando, Or take the rest of the rest off =)
Very True!
Tony,
Merry Christmas! Question – Can the 70% of markets you follow that are DOWN trending sustain while the DJIA is UP trending longr term or will something have to give. I mean the US can’t rally against 70% of the rest of the world can it ?
Hi Tommy, Not likely.happy holidays!
Happy Holidays to Everyone.
Thanks for all your insight Tony.
http://lasertrader.wordpress.com/
This was placed on the site a couple of days ago, and I find it interesting – Helene Meisler swears by him.
Not many people are expecting things to go this way!
I used to follow him a LONG(i think it was the 80s he was at Cowen),my god..I have become an old-timer)time ago. My two cents-hes a ROCK STAR. I used to love his stuff!
Brian
Thanks for that Brian..interesting stuff…. no, you’re not old when you scrape your memory a bit….just think “we’re still standing”.
I find it interesting when I of “the waylaid bull” camp find another thinking in a similar vein.
Another of the few is Tom De Mark, but I think he has some timelines.
.
happy holidays Fiona
Oh look it’s pivot time again. If there’s such a thing as a cheap short its 1256-1260 ESH
HO HO HO
Yes Im a bit hammered but just saying
haaa.. trading (well) while hammered – it can only be done by Lee
Merry Christmas, Lee! ..GL with ur trade…looks like you will have a big winner there…this thing looks sooo overdone…
C B !!!!
)
Merry Christmas !!!
I’m just guessing as always unless it turns out to be right if not I blame the new planets that have been discovered recently
You have a been good this year u have to be excited about Santa !!!
: ) haa, so now ur our Chief Trader AND Astrologer as well…well, all I can say is that we’re in very good hands… And I don’t know abt. Santa – just in case ”I ‘ve lowered my expectations to the point where they’ve already been met.” Hey, the less I talk the better I trade..so I need to, yes, shut up more. Happy harpooning, Lee & be sure to leave things in a good condition for us in the morning, OK? Have fun!
perfect spot! While i’m scared of the calendar(year end rally) I am small short now planning to add into year end.
Brian
p.s. picking a perfect stop is a bit tuffer
ASTRO Moon Cycle…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2011/12/astro-moon-cycle-total-lunar-eclipse.html
Tony – thanks for the daily gifts you give us all year long on the EW Lives on – the very best of holiday wishes to your and yours, cheers, Greg
thx Greg, and to you and yours happy holidays!
Scotty…. you do very nice work my friend, great job. Agree with you on both your views.
Thank you David
Merry Xmas to all as well
Which way next chart: http://chart.ly/jfjdw6y
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Tony and all the little OEW Elves
“Advance Warning”– Gold Sell Signal
http://markethighsandlows.wordpress.com/2011/12/22/update-12-22-spx-gold-advance-warning-sell-signal/
Time for an Egg Nog
Cheers
A politically incorrect MERRY CHRISTMAS to Tony and all here.
thanks Bill, and Happy holidays to you and yours