SHORT TERM: market gaps down at open, DOW -249
Overnight the Asian markets were all lower. Europe opened lower and closed -3.0%. US index futures were also sharply lower overnight, and the market gapped down to SPX 1205 at the open and continued to decline. The SPX had closed at 1216 on friday. At 10:00 annualized Existing home sales were reported higher: 4.97 mln vs 4.91 mln. Around 11:00 the SPX hit 1183, within the OEW 1187 pivot range. After a small bounce and retest of 1183 near noon, the market tried to rally. Also around noon the FED issued the following: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/other/20111121a.htm. The SPX hit 1191 by 1:30, still within the pivot range, pulled back to 1185 by 2:00, and then rallied to 1195 by 2:30. Another pullback followed to 1189 by 3:00, then the market rallied to SPX 1198 by 3:30, and ended the day at 1193.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -2.0%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.9%. Bonds gained 8 ticks, Crude slid 35 cents, Gold dropped $38.00, and the USD was higher. Support for the SPX remains at 1187 and then 1176, with resistance at 1222 and then 1240. Short term momentum hit extremely oversold at today’s low and then rose toward neutral. Tomorrow, Q3 GDP at 8:30, then the FOMC minutes at 2:00.
The market gapped down at the open today, and continued to decline until it hit the low for the day at SPX 1183. After a retest around noon the market then rallied into the close before dipping some in the last half hour. Today’s decline could have completed a small wave five to end Minute wave iii of C DOW count, or Minute wave iii of 3 SPX count. We had detailed these smaller waves in the weekend report: wave 1 SPX 1244, wave 2 SPX 1264, wave 3 SPX 1209, wave 4 SPX 1224. If this is the case the short term OEW charts should turn positive to confirm, but currently require a rally over 1220 to do so.
Today’s decline took the market into the upper range of the OEW 1168, 1176, 1187 pivot cluster. The decline also stopped at the 50% retracement level (SPX 1184) of the 1075-1293 uptrend. Should our short term bullish count be correct, the market should now rally somewhat to complete a Minute wave iv, and then decline into the OEW pivot cluster again to complete the correction. Short term support remains in the 1168, 1176, 1187 cluster, with resistance now in the upper 1190′s, 1209 and then the 1222 pivot. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend probably topped at SPX 1293
LONG TERM: neutral
CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987
Tommyboys – “6 year Kress cycle peaked at the end of September-early October and the market rocketed – from a supposed peak!”
This is true, however… I could be wrong but I do believe there is one cycle still in its up phase and that’s the 4 yr cycle which is providing support, at least for the near term. Once that cycle peaks, all cycles will be in what is termed their ‘Hard Down’ phase until 2014. I’ve had the good fortune of speaking with Bud Kress several times (very bright and a very nice man, by the way) and, while I believe his long-range view of the mkts is right on the money, it’s very difficult to use the very long-term analysis to trade within the shorter time frames. So, when it’s deemed that a particular cycle ‘should’ peak, it doesn’t mean that the mkts will respond to that immediately. As well, there might be other extraneous factors at play (i.e., govt intervention) that might push out a cycle’s ‘due date’. A devotee of Bud’s who comments fairly frequently on the Kress Cycles is Clif Droke over at Safehaven.
Lee, forget about my words, just listen to your own:
“catchthemoves says:
November 9, 2011 at 1:40 pm
Don’t miss the rally which should begin tomorrow (Thursday).
Dr. CLee says:
November 9, 2011 at 1:57 pm
Thanks I appreciate u sharing a big rally would be epic at this point. ”
Dow rallied 400 points the very next two days. Not sure I can make it any clearer for you so will stop trying. Have a nice Thanksgiving and try to take it easy. It’s all good.
Haaaaa Catch
Man I thought I was passive aggressive !
No ! You try and take it easy !
Quit trying to save face here and get to work
Have a great holiday !
the problem seems to be that our dear politicians like to keep attention on themselves till the very last minute ahead a major holiday…anyways despite a few whipsaws here and there, stochastics is finally getting better. My “system” says :don’t quite 5 minutes befoer the miracle
http://screencast.com/t/LOdr2mcOPX
“don’t quit,” that is
Cheap long here ?
Ok guys have a Great Holiday !
Keep the P.A attitude away from the table
Everybody’s awesome and if Catch uses 99% one more time he will be hearing from my lawyers
LTR
99.5% .
Thanks. Have a great Thanksgiving too, Lee!
Happy Thanksgiving, Lee!
U bet C B Igor and I3 or whatever ur name is
don’t make you go PA on you..
you, too, doctor..
it just hit me.. that trying to keep the p-a attitude away from the table would be a form of p-a, so I ‘will not attempt’… it could easily manifest itself under the table instead
….Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Thanks Tony! Great work. Much appreciated!
no p-a here, pure joy,
the 1st minute only…he gets too damn technical after that
Sriman200,
Currency panic has been created to make sure year end fii panic accelerates and fiis get the he’ll out, post first week of December you will see a huge rise in nifty, 15% rise till year end mark my words
Vishal, thanks
Catch, hope this answer your question:
“M1 says:
November 17, 2011 at 7:23 pm
I still have the same charts(sorry if it is boring)….however, I’ve noticed that there is a chance we are already in minor 3 of int i.(see the dow 60 min chart)…if that is the case a major rally (as catch system is suggesting) looks very unlikely.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID4067322
GL”
I may be probably wrong this time. So good luck again.
By the way the chart was adjusted and updated.
QE3 and 23?
At this point, if we had a 1/2 (1215/1278) and i/ii (1226/1267) and 1267-1181=86 being 1.68 of i + posit diverg + catch system in buy signal, I should expect wave iv to unfold….uhmmm….
NAZ looks the same …2696-2500=196 being 1.51 of i
Guys / Gals
Gobble Gobble
get ready
Lee, Don’t they usually announce these liquidity programs before a Major program is announced?happy T-day
Yes
And Happy T day to you.
Are u going to buy ur Turkey or shoot one in ur back yard this year ?
The only turkeys I see around here are our representatives in Washington
Thanks, that’s what I recall as well.
Washington ? Heck take I 55 to Springfield they’re an easy shot just standing in the rain looking up
Actually we’re having ham
having turducken. it is one crazy mixed breed looking of a bird!
It’s so typical u would throw a duck in
We’re having Possum
you know we like ducks..
they must be listening to Gaga too much, i3 : )
Tony, I am so thankful for that +D you’ve put in ur chart. And thanks Donna, I’ve stopped looking at that chart for a while in my frustration : )
CB, they have successfully killed the bad romance..
haha… a nice attempt …two things come to mind : ‘harmonious society” and Gaga’s copyrights…I guess they changed the lyrics quite a bit.. funny!
The commists are the notorious offenders of the intellectual property rights…You tell them to change the lyrics, so they don’t infringe the copyright.. : )
yeah, why do they do it? b/c they can get away with it
they have a big army, don’t they? …it’s like saying “ur kid is an honor student, but my kid can dropkick ur kid.” …and so on…
Catch
How long have you been trading Stocks ETF’s ect ? Thanks
Scotty, I would usually not recommend lowering stop-loss levels; however, today it was much wiser to do so for two reasons: (a) in anticipation of today’s imminent Buy signal, the last thing one would want to do is get stopped out; and (b) it was only extended to the normal risk/loss amount of 100 Dow points, i.e., it was not extended on an absolute basis but only on a relative basis – in relation to the overly tight 50-point level instituted at the initiation of the trade yesterday. Good thing: had I not done so, I would have been stopped out (today’s low is 11,433.97), but because I took this action, I am still long with the Dow now back over the 11,500 mark and more to come. This is one of the benefits which come from being so familiar with the system, it allows me to see a turn coming in advance, ahead of the curve, with few exceptions. Let’s see how this one plays out.
Two most recent occurrences of today’s impending Buy signal, both within the past two months: first one garnered 500 Dow points in just five trading days, the second one garnered 400 points in just two days and the same 500 points in five days. Let’s see if today’s impending signal repeats these results. Signal is guaranteed to be generated at the close today so long as the Dow closes lower (i.e., in the red).
In my honest opinion the force of the waves are stronger than even the best system. And it looks to me this structure to the downside is not completed yet.
Good luck.
I believe and have seen time after time that this system is far better, far more consistent and immediate at predicting the market than wave theory, but the two often work without overall contradiction, in this way: if your interpretation of the wave structure is correct, then I would fully expect the Dow to close Higher today and thus prevent the Buy signal from being generated, which would allow the market to proceed lower as you are expecting. However, if the Dow closes Lower today, than a Buy signal will be generated and the wave structure you’re seeing will be rendered moot, at least for the immediate future. Another possible scenario: we close lower today and get a Buy signal and the Dow rallies short-term, at which time the system generates a Sell signal and the market proceeds to your expected lows. The market always reveals which predictions are right, let’s see what it does this time.
How accurate have your expectations been in the past?
I think we are comparing apples to oranges. It is all about bucks, and the rest is conversation. There are many types of players in this market with different time frames and objectives. The bottom line is the score on the scorecard.
I think I am in the minority who like CTM’s trading method and approach.
Thanks Ronini. Actually, I have thousands of people from this board who now read my blog each day, and the vast majority understand and love it. It’s the vast minority (a few diehard skeptics on this board) who don’t properly understand it. They tend to be the most vociferous, but I can assure you that the 99% know the score and see them in the proper light. When something truly works, the masses do not let the skepticism of the few dissuade them.
Catch, I understand your approach since I have a system that triggers trade signals. My system has only about mid 60% W/L ratio, and it doesn’t automatically generate price target. It is a grind.
Imminent buy signal is “anticipated” — The market could close up today and there
is no buy signal. Staying long overnight opens up a gap down tomorrow on a news report and a potential “Sell” signal generated on the close tommorrow generating losses. Playing the “Devils Advocate” here, trying to search for ways to get tripped up by the system. Trust me when I say EVERYONE here would love to have a 100% reliable system to trade. But after 40 years for me and a lot of years for the others trying to find something that reliable, there has to be some skepticism. We are all pulling for you !
Scotty
Thanks Scotty. I know what you mean – every investor is indeed seeking something which can predict the market’s moves consistently. I was one of them. I couldn’t find one anywhere that was very consistent. And practical (forward-looking, not rear-view mirror). That’s why I set out to develop my system in the first place. It’s about 98% complete. The only time it’s wrong – or my interpretation of it – is when I “miss” a signal, i.e., when the system generates a signal but I failed to see it. Given the fact that the system is comprised of 100+ sub-systems, this happens but not very often. This past week, in which I missed two sell signals in a row, is the first time that’s ever happened.
Let’s just see how it does in the future, which should equal or exceed its results of the past. In the past month that I’ve made it public via my own blog and here, it has done exceptionally well but you have yet to see any of its strongest signals. When you do, that will quell the skepticism from a few on this board. I don’t mind the skepticism at all, as 99% of the people who visit my blog seem to understand how powerful (though not perfect) this system is.
When I say “not perfect”, let me clarify: it has NEVER generated an Official Signal which hasn’t correctly predicted the Dow’s direction the very next trading day. Literally 100%. For those who don’t care about leaving some additional profits on the table so long as each one-day trade is profitable, they could simply heed each signal just before the close of the signal day, and then close the position just before the close of the following day. This should average portfolio gains of 50-100% a year. All of this can be tracked by anyone who looks over my previous comments here and on my own blog, and when I get the time I will put it together myself (already have all of the data, just need to format it, etc.).
P.S. If the market were to close Higher today, it would abort the Buy signal and I would either close my bullish position or move up the stop-loss level – e.g., if we close at 15,550-15,600, I would probably stay long and simply move the stop-loss to just below 11,500. This would allow for all potential upside while reducing the possible downside/loss of the trade to near zero. I like those odds, like that risk/reward ratio.
60 min + Dev in Tony’s pivot zone! Doesn’t get any better than that!
IMF just introduced a new liquidity program
so, we partially bailing them out..
Hi Tony,
It has been a long time since you commented on the bull market (20 yrs!) in 10-30 year US Bonds. Do you think it has further to go and what do you see as the top?
Thanks
bob
Hi Bob, Waiting for the 30YR to hit the 2008 low in yield.
Hi Tony, et al…
I’m not sure we’ll hit that 2008 level again to be honest. Inflation expectations would have to absolutely plummet to hit a nominal yield of 2.5% again is my guess. But considering the general sentiment regarding the use of money printing to bail out our various economies, I think inflation expectations could remain elevated just enough to keep nominal yields from getting back down that low. This is just my own assessment.
If you look at TIPS breakevens I think it will bear this out. Real rates are much lower now than they were back in 2008. If Europe totally collapses and we go into a global depression, then that’s definitely off the table (as is inflation).
As an aside, if we think about the linkage between markets and the scenarios that are required to bring about correlated moves, I don’t see any way that the current bullish DOW count can lead to a scenario where rates get back down to 2008 lows. The only scenario I see causing that move would be this being a real bear market and the S&P gets down below our recent 1074 low. Just my humble opinion
-rc
thanks RC, Not expecting that yield low anytime soon.
Ahh… well, fair enough.
Market internals deteriorated significantly for the last three days. BPI of all sectors made a reversal and are in a sell mode now except three defensive sectors. 5 sectors sank below the 50% center line. Quite bearish picture to me.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID4773938
Agree, Igor.. Market acting week during “up pressure” last 2 days
indicates stronger downside to come.
WEAK
What is “up” pressure
Possibly but could also be an inversion. There are also so many cycles on so many timeframes that just about anything can happen at any time. 6 year Kress cycle peaked at the end of September-early October and the market rocketed – from a supposed peak!
Igor to you consider volume or just level in your analysis? Volumes have been super light last few days. I was actually shoked that last Friday’s volume was off 20% from Thursday’s even while an OPEX Friday. Yesterday’s was about 18% (NYSE) below Friday’s and today’s is already off ANOTHER 15% from yesterday !
OK should read Igor DO YOU consider… and SHOCKED not Shoked!!
Hi tommyboys,
my model measures the percentage of stocks comprising a sector, with P&F charts showing a buy signal. I follow 2715 stocks currently. Volume is not included in analysis.
Up pressure is when cycles are to be
moving up and vice versa. If the market does not follow the direction the cycles indicate,
then it indicates the larger cycle in the opposite direction is very strong.
Today is the last day of the up pressure from
the “Market Map”. After today its down until month end.
1208 would be my target for today, which is very near
Tonys 1209 !
Good luck
SILVER VIEWS for those interested. Im interested in buying from 27-30
http://chart.ly/nkvsvjq
Best
Dave
Tony, if this is a third wave as I believe and your top count is labeled, we should hit the 1150 thru 1170 extensions fairly quickly, correct? Thanks for your work.
Hi CC, Think the pivot cluster between 1168 and 1187 should be good support.
Thanks Tony. It seems like lately, there hasn’t been a whole lot of support or resistance! Although, with my bearish goggles on, I could make a case for the old trading range to now be in effect, 1100 to 1200.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
For months now, this market usually trades through important support/resistance overnight.Then the market gaps on the open.This is what makes this market somewhat treacherous.
Hi Tony, I wonder how/when could we confirm or what would be needed to confirm if this large structure from 1371/1102or1075/1293 was an A-B or 1-2 ?
Mario, Two ways:1. if the market drops 10% or not from the high.2. the wave pattern completes on this last decline from 1278.
Back a few days ago, I proposed a mix of indicators to check the chances for a possible military strike over Iran. Crude Oil, SPX, US Bonds, US Dollar + Gold.
SPX is already below 1215. Crude Oil pulled back, but it looks it wants to resume the rally. US Bonds look ready to confirm a new uptrend. US dollar too. Not sure abt gold.
Tony what’s your take on the dollar index from a medium term perspective?
Vishal, mixed … no certain trend at this time
Ok, tony thanx for having alternate counts, i guess it worked out well,the way this is shaping up its no way to say which way will the s&p go, will it be fair to say the bullish count is still favourable or not necessarily?
Vishal,The bullish count is still in play.Can not post Rupee charts as stockcharts only provides a poorly performing ETF.
Tony i have a humble request, since longer term you are bullish on India, could you please add USD-INR currency charts to your daily chart updates, as all fii investments are currency dependent and the recent carnage or capitulation in india is only because of $ appreciation!
Analysts are predicting USD/INR will reach 58 and possibly go up to 62 few days back and after watching last few days movement in USD/INR from 50 to 52.85, they seem to be correct and the count seems to be for USD/INR is 2008 some where in jan it was around 39 and it moved from there to 52 in 2009 feb, if we count this as wave 1 then it came down to 44 moved around that level till july 2011, we can count this down move as wave 2. now the recent move from 44 to 52.85 could be wave 3 in progress.
Sriman
Tony,
In India, the nse exchange has another index called dollar nifty “defty”, I am not sure people can trade this index? you might already aware of it, just in case.
Sriman
Thanks Sri
Love oneself, or love oneself and all others. It’s a choice. Your future depends on it. Time is short. Make the choice!
SP500 Time Ratio 60min…5min…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2011/11/sp500-time-ratio-60min5min.html
Pingback: monday update
CB, I hope I am not that passive aggressive tricky fake candy you were referring to. What you read is what you get. I don’t like people posting after the fact. It is pointless and just silly. I am sweet as honey, only go after those tricky fake candies.
Hey I3, I don’t think you are at all. I thought u were kidding about “p-a” the other day – and that’s how I took it, as a joke. Anyway, it’s such an overused label that it’s easy to misinterpret what it really means , and we shouldn’t really throw that word around so casually, I guess. The question 2day was how we fell about fights…& the fact of the matter is that, sometimes, they are just necessary & quite productive because it’s better to express than to suppress ( which btw. is the opposite of ‘p-a’), so that’s how it came up.
“p-a” ?
you don’t expect me to type the entire, ultra-long word ” passive-aggressive”(‘p-a’) all the time, do you?…this alone could make me p-a…lol
Ahh! that P.A….Please don’t hit me..I am sorry for asking…I am not worthy..
Loonie et. al
My views on Gold
http://chart.ly/pkm2r6m
Good stuff David… Much appreciated!!
As Tony said Elliot wave analysis must be
one of the most difficult methods to
analyze the markets.. I am still sometimes
amazed when this type of analysis
nails it.. I’d still love to see all you Elliot
wave guys in the same room and having
it out… Ha!
Hi Tony – While the STORMM indicators and short term indicators are poised to support the OEW bullish count – the longer term technical indicators are very bearish and resemble closely the early 2008 (May 2008) situation. The long term indicators and comparisons seem to support a renewed major wave 3 down in its early stages.
Charts and discussion at: http://hgpolites3.wordpress.com/
Hi Greg, Some of our indicators are displaying similar 2008 comparisons as well.Doubt Central banks wil allow another implosion.
Love oneself, or love oneself and all others. It’s a choice. Your future depends on it. Time is short. Make the choice!
Thanks Tony for the reply – yes I agree – the ink for currency printing presses was probably loaded into the machines today……….
Thanks Tony, I still don’t see the end of minute iii in my alt count. It looks minute iii is in force yet.
However, I think the most important event today was that the 50% Fib Retrac held the selloff.
GL
Loonie. The break of 1702 on Gold is short term bearish with 1621 now on the docket for a pivot. Liquidation trade even taking gold down
Thank you David…there are some people
calling the end of this bull market..or
at the very least a much sharper correction and rest
Posted this after lunch today
http://chart.ly/8mcbf48
Bottom line? Sticking with my bearish views and looking for 1130′s by early December as most likely, with bounces along the way. Sticking with 1050-1070 during 1st quarter 2012 as well.
When GRPN went public I stated it would mark a seminal event and secondary top range in the Markets, so far so good.
Investors continue to underestimate gravity of European Situation as I believe some are here as well.
Safe investing
David are you still bullish on Gold??
ASTRO Update Sun 180 Jupiter… Next Intermediaire Low,,,
http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2011/10/astro-sun-180-jupiter-2000-2011.html
ASTRO Update Moon Cycle…Next Interim Low…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2011/11/astro-moon-cycle_14.html