SHORT TERM: market pulls back, DOW -207
Overnight the Asian markets were mixed. Europe opened lower and closed -0.30%. US index futures were higher, then lower, overnight. At 9:00 Case-Shiller reported a 0.2% increase in housing prices. The market opened lower at SPX 1249, and continued to decline after a rumor the ECU meeting for wednesday was cancelled. Within the first few minutes the SPX hit 1233, and then it started to rebound when the rumor was found to be false. At 10:00 Consumer confidence reported a decline: 39.8 vs 45.4, and the NAHB housing index also declined: -0.1% vs +0.8%. The market rallied until 10:30 when the SPX hit 1245. Then for the next two hours the market stayed in a wide trading range between SPX 1236 and 1244. Around 12:30 it started to pullback again. In the last hour of trading the SPX dropped below the 1233 opening low, hitting 1227, and finished the day at 1229.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -1.85%, and the NDX/NAZ were -2.15%. Bonds gained 28 ticks, Crude added $1.60, Gold rallied $49.00, and the USD was higher. Support for the SPX drops back to 1222 and then 1187, with resistance now at 1240 and then 1261. Short term momentum, which was quite overbought yesterday, hit quite oversold today. Tomorrow, Durable goods at 8:30 then New home sales at 10:00.
The market opened lower today on a rumor, stabilized, and then headed even lower heading into the close. The SPX 1257 area did offer quite a bit of resistance as noted yesterday. Today’s decline, however, cleared away our 1-2-3 wave count scenario from the SPX 1191 low. Now this uptrend is starting to look like the choppy B wave rally it was expected to be. With the break of the SPX 1233 level this afternoon anything is possible short term. With the EU meeting tomorrow anything and everything is on the table going forward. This uptrend did hit the 15 day point yesterday on that 1257 high. This market could turn quite volatile again. Short term support is at the 1222 and 1187 pivots, resistance is at the 1240 and 1261 pivots. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend high SPX 1257
LONG TERM: bear market highly probable
CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987
rumor of a London train station being evacuated..
anybody have this…Twitter noise
R1 and days open at the 76.40% yest range1139 ish ESZ
just a crazy magnet
R1 and days open at the 76.40% yest range1239 ish ESZ
just a crazy magnet
thanks Lee.
fwiw, I am foolishly assuming we’ll test that lower boundary again since the whole thing looks like a H+S intraday http://screencast.com/t/rdYrfJ5Y
Hope it’s not another training exercise
Tony
True dat
Market takes out days high .. its not worried
back under days open…what a love fest in there ESZ SPX
1239*
FYI – am hearing that the ground moisture here in eastern Iowa is pretty darn low (that’s coming from the tiling guys who are putting tile in the fields right now). Some of the farmers here are thinking that, unless there are heavy spring rains, next year’s crop yields could suffer as a result. They’re storing corn rather than sell at these prices & generally have not been selling forward next year’s crop.
Thanks a bushel MCK !
In the blog universe I had an Amazing Day trading CL!!!
Real world…I did ok
any positive day is a good day
+1
ESZ just hit the R 1 pivot again
a close above it would be interesting
What ya think Tony?
We going to take out yesterdays highs ?
Dr. C,1257-1221 matched the biggest pullback of the entire uptrend.Looks like we may head higher from here, in time.
THX !
Rumor is the Wiener schnitzel is too die for causing a short covering rally to PP at 1231 76.40% at 1334.50
C=A 1236
volatility makes for good TA IMO
pick ur spots and if ur wrong oh well at least on ur terms I say
Nice Lee, no clue what’s gonna happen- just prefer to be a seller right now.
H D
As long as it moves both ways more than 6 handles is all u can ask for.
CL not feeling it yet..they must be making more of it
.618 back. not happy with the waves
sorry Pivot Point at 1230.58
.618 back @ 1231 low/high pit
76.40 the eq lovers retrace @ 1334.50
1234.75
trade 76.40 % in a hurry.
Isnt that amazing guys ?
cheap short in theory but its just hanging around…
CL stopped at .50% day pit just under IB low
SPX bounced off some type of support it seems
CL at a S1 support on hourly S2 =89.21
ZC got worked off the 655 pivot. It’s bullish above bearish below IMO
.50% back in ES at 1228
Watch those fibs..76.40% is 1334.50
GL
H D
When new $$ comes in to the grains you’re going to get busy fast.
Speaking of grains:http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GKX&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p00659655152&a=155147974
thanks Lee.
I wonder when that new money is going to come …this one guy wrote the other day that “The Corn Market Is Like A Chicago Cub Fan; “Wait Until Next Year”.
Thanks for the chart Tony.
CB, The Cubbies now have three GM’s … next year is here
Hey Tony
This is the Cubs most productive part of the season…the off season
You think the world could handle a Cubs World Series Championship ???
Only if they get Sir Albert
haha, Tony ur always on top of things….and now that you call them “the Cubbies” …well, it’s onwards and upwards for them, I guess
I remember when Casey used to call the other NYC team, the Metsies.Not too long after they won a World Series.That was the year 1969 the Cubs collapsed in August with a 10 1/2 game lead.So maybe if we change their name they’ll change their fortunes.
yeah, that’s that love thing that does it, Tony… you’ve covered that topic many times for us lol.. ..or lurve (that’s how Celine Dion pronunces it, I think..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xbO3dfF9uuE
Tony, trust but verify, huh? ..it seems that her talent improved greatly AFTER that song, though…
I think thatthe only team for which that love thing is not working is the Denver Broncos…it’s a cult
looks like the good ol’ 11am program buy order support
FTSE Time Ratio…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2011/10/ftse-time-ratio_26.html
Tony,
I notice on 60 mins SPX chart you labeled blue a on 1256 high, is this part of c wave up?
Thank you!
Welcome Chung, We’re counting this entire uptrend as corrective.We believe yesterday’s action tipped off the entire pattern.Will detail in the wednesday update.But yes, wave A 1075-1225, wave B 1191, wave C still underway.
Thank you!
Looking forward to today’s report.
cheers!
Thanks Chung
good eye
Thanks Tony !
demark again… http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-25/demark-s-p-500-may-trap-bulls-after-rally.html
thx Wldcttr, Looks like we’re on the same page.
posted this the other day, just some squiggles… maybe a megaphone bottoming pattern in this bear? http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p55200792987&a=246936449
I’m still seeing 1284 for sure if not 1306. Also I like Greek Stock market index as well. Best of luck to all. Today’s possible entries are again ERTS for big breakout coming and IO which Im long at 7.03.
So it looks pretty clear at this point, there won’t be any monetization at this meetings. Any comments?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8848530/Brussels-summit-the-main-issues-to-be-resolved.html
Europe’s leaders have been working out how best to boost the the €440bn European Financial Stability Facility’s (EFSF) firepower without increasing government guarantees.
France has agreed to drop its demand to turn the EFSF into a bank that could borrow from the European Central Bank, leaving two ideas on the table.
The first is to give the bailout fund the ability to provide investors with a partial insurance against losses from eurozone government bonds.
The second will see a special investment vehicle (SPIV) set up “to attract a broad class of international public and private investors” such as sovereign wealth funds to buy eurozone government debt.
B wave rally.
What do you mean by that? That market will rally regardless of the lack of monetization, just because B wave rallies tend to be impulsive i.e. “irrational?”
With no monetization it looks like an european bank recap rally, i.e. US bank recap rally Nov08-Jan09.This market could go higher waiting for the final plan and execution.Then the economies will come into focus.
Well, do you expect that will fully take place today? There seems to be fresh new obstacles to resolution (Berlusconi, Germany again…)
From what I read the final plan will not come until the first week in November.
Pingback: tuesday update
Tony,1233 broken and I think top is in for the A wave.we are currently in B wave and it can go down till 1100 or lower but don’t break 1075.This B wave will be 7 wave affairs.
So a turn seems to have come on the Semi-Major GANN turn of the 25th with the break of 1233.
For me this should be the C down of Wave 2 of Major Wave B. We should find support at the 1187 pivot and just below in the 1170 area where there is a cluster of resistance and a gap to be filled.
We could get down here by 2 – 4th Nov (in time for the Fed meeting and statement)where the next Semi-Major GANN turn date arrives. They are coming thick and fast at the moment as there is another one after this the following week on 8 – 10th Nov and this one has me particularly cautious as if we got some fuel from the Fed we would rise into this date. Could this be a double top around mid-month or even a slight push higher to 1284 and 1291 pivots by then?! Hmmmm……
At this time it’s still not my preferred scenario as I think we could continue higher (with pullbacks) into March of next year.
Gold and Oil certainly seem to be smelling more QE but will they really continue to rise if RISK comes off and we start a Major Wave C down?
Er….. I am undecided!
However still short for now from 1240 pivot areas from a couple of days ago and looking to close around the targets above. More so if we’re at my current targets. I would go long then.
Any break below 1170 area is more serious and could mean Major B is over I guess and we’re in C.
Next EU meeting after this is 7-8th Nov. Next Semi-Major GANN turn 8 – 10th Nov.
I presume that we could still rise here Tony even if it doesn’t look favourable after yesterday breaking the 1233 area. If we did (seeing as we’re still in the GANN turn area and shouldn’t be fooled by a 1 day fall) would that make yesterday a Wave 4 or is that now completely off the table?
Thank you, Alex
Alex, The DOW held the pattern, so we’ll see.
am closing short
Dax Fibo…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2011/10/dax-fibo_25.html
Perfect timing
http://www.tabtn.org/news/industry-news/view/first-ever-national-test-of-eas-coming-november-9th/
And
http://www.gamespot.com/news/6260808/call-of-duty-black-ops-deploying-november-9
Quiet might be nice……….
Best timer award goes to
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/10/25/gupta-faces-criminal-charges/
Igor I got nothing on tranys but a email the Friday after lows about buying airlines I shared with T. Chart wise the horizontal lines work some. Gl
http://elite.finviz.com/publish.ashx?t=IYT&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_10,sma2_200,sma_55,sma2_20,sar_0.02_0.2,rsi_a_5,stofu_a_5_5_3,macd_b_12_26_9,adx_b_12,mfi_b_14&p=d&s=l
Thanks Mike,
I think trannies should perform well going into busy season before Christmas.
hahaha
Today my market sector model showed the breadth improvement in 3 sectors. BPI of the Technology, Services and Consumer Non-Cyclical sectors added 2% each. New stocks issuing a buy signal in the Technology and Services sectors make me believe that today’s decline is a retracement before new highs. It is worth a notice that 9 of 11 sectors in my model are at 50% mark or higher. It means that 50% or more stocks I follow in those sectors are in a buy signal. 3 sectors are below 50% mark. The Healthcare is a defensive sector. The Energy and Basic Materials sectors are lagging sectors and join the rally usually at the end. The overall picture shows that this advance is healthy. There are no signs to me to be bearish at the moment.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3474785&cmd=show&disp=p
Nice work, Igor. Thanks.
Thanks Tony.
fwiw, 20 ema is now above 50 ema….let’s see how long this uptrend lasts http://screencast.com/t/AvvdY7tpSSrO
thx Igor
Love oneself, or love oneself and all others. It’s a choice. Your future depends on it. Time is short. Make the choice!
Tony
Yesterday you replied to a post that if 1233 was violated would negate further upside.
Any comments?
Thank you
Yes I did.Would negate for upside for this rally.Not so sure about the uptrend though.B’s tend to be tricky.
DJI Fibo…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2011/10/dji-fibo_25.html
ASTRO Next Lower Low…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2011/10/astro-next-lower-low.html
ASTRO High October 25th 07h20…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2011/10/astro-high-october-25th-07h20.html
I could count five waves from 1075 as well as three waves. See the last chart (spx 60min)
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID4067322
Should the 4th wave act as support I will more confident we had 5 waves. If not, I guess we had only three.
I think wave 4 or b at 1197 and 1187(38.2% Fib) are crucial supports.
thx M1
Is it possible that this C-wave is taking the form of an ending diagonal?
yes
Love oneself, or love oneself and all others. It’s a choice. Your future depends on it. Time is short. Make the choice!
SP500 Fibo…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2011/10/sp500-fibo_25.html
Tony we are going down hard,did you see Amazon? I mean Apple, Netflix now Amazon,it will take major Euro miracle to keep thi this market up.Even with dow down 207 this market is extremly over extended.Has anyone seen were the snp stocks over 20 day average is,that homework for u guys tonight
Yes Pooch, taking these stocks behind the woodshed and shooting them
tony, who cares about stocks…lets talk about gold!!!…lol greg
HooLoo beauty is in the eye of the be-holder
Good news and bad news. First the bad. EU leaders can’t get their act together…again. The good news, US leaders now seem “less dysfunctional” than their EU counterparts! Thanks for your update Tony, tomorrow’s should be fun!!
Looks like a day traders market again Welcome back Lee