SHORT TERM: market gaps down, DOW -108
Overnight the Asian markets were mostly lower. Europe opened lower and closed -2.45%. US index futures gapped down at the open yesterday and continued lower overnight. As the stock market opened the SPX gapped down to 1197 and continued to move lower. The SPX had closed at 1216 on friday. By 10:30 the SPX hit 1188, the low for the day, got slightly oversold, and tried to rally. At 10:00 the NAHB housing index was reported still in flat line territory: 14 vs 15. Just before noon the market rallied to SPX 1200. A pullback followed to SPX 1191, then another rally attempt took the market to 1210 around 3:30. Volatile day. Then the market pulled back some to end the day at SPX 1204.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.95%, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds gained 28 ticks, Crude lost $2.20, Gold dropped $35.00, and the USD was higher. Support for the SPX remains at 1187 and then 1176, with resistance at 1222 and then 1241. Short term momentum hit slightly oversold this morning, then rose past neutral in the afternoon. Tomorrow, the FED starts its two day FOMC meeting, plus we get reports on Housing starts and Building permits at 8:30.
The market gapped down this morning after setting up a short term negative divergence on friday and what appeared to be a potential Int. wave A high. The pullback this morning took the SPX right down to support at the OEW 1187 pivot. The pivot held and the market rallied, in a zigzag pattern, for the rest of the day. It certainly looked like we had a Minor wave A down to support, then a Minor wave B rally for the rest of the day. Yet, the potential Minor wave B went further than expected. Thus far, from friday’s SPX 1220 high, the market has pulled back 32 points, then rallied. We would expect a larger pullback if this is indeed Intermediate wave B. Today’s action makes the short term situation a bit tricky. Short term support is in the low 1200′s, then the 1187 and 1176 pivots. Overhead resisitance is at the 1222 pivot, the low 1230′s and then the 1240 pivot. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend likely ended at SPX 1102
LONG TERM: bear market highly probable
CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987
The fall is quicker than the rise further proving longer term bearish sentiment
Tony it will be fair to say Rangebound rules apply as we are in a band of 1160-1220, something major has to happen fir breakout eitherway
Vishal, yes that would make sense
1222 pivot time
hey dude !
Is the circus coming to town today?
More like the Hells Angels
hahaha
can anbody count 5 waves from 1136
This is what I have:
W1 1136 – 1174 38
W2 1174 – 1161 13
W3 1161 – 1202 41
W4 1202 – 1189 13
W5 1189 – 1220 31
I’m very happy with the waves, Today! Wednesday is a new day. GL. See ya guys later.
Wow Tony how many times have we failed to break 1222?
Also copper falling off a cliff the last 2 weeks
Pooch, the market has not closed over 1222 since Aug 3rd. Quite a few times
Hi Tony, I am still watching NDX for clues. The rally from 2035 has been quite powerfull and has already retraced abt 75% of the Jul/Ago decline. If SPX works its way to go higher, I guess we may see a new bull market high for NDX and that is a bit confusing if we consider we are in a bear market and we are only expecting major b for NDX to unfold.
On the other hand, if NDX starts to roll over I guess SPX may not get that uptrend confirmation that we are waiting for. That would suggest SPX is only working its wave iv while NDX is working its major b/2 ? …. thats confusing too. NDX may unfold a powerfull major c that may push SPX lower than expected.
M1, lots of options.A strong NDX could suggest a minor bear market.
M1,
Don’t focus too much on the Nasdaq 100. It is very heavily weighted in AAPL. AAPL is the most crowded trade on the street so expect a concerted effort to take it higher into the end of the month. Not the relative underperformance of the XLF, XLE, and small caps since the low on 9/12/11. Nasdaq Composite coming up on huge resistance between 2650 and 2693. 2670 is the 62% retrace and 2689 is where wave C=A (2337-2612= 275) and 275 + 2414= 2689. Not uncommon for Nasdaq Comp and 100 to go beyond 62% retraces on B/2 waves in cyclical bears since 2000. That gap at 2693 from early August will be a tough nut to crack and is up near the 200dma. If it pushes that high take a look at where the small caps/XLE/XLF are and I think you will have your answer for your next trade. In other words, tech always outperforms in the early stages of bear markets.
Sorry, meant “NOTE” the underperformance.
Thanks equity, if this is only a counter-trend rally for NDX it looks to me this is major 2 unfolding (not b). So I am not so confident just counting a different wave on the SPX.
Hope I am wrong.
NAS Moon Cycle…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2011/09/nas-moon-cycle.html
Highest Nosebleed 3rd Wave Targets For S&P DOW and NASDAQ (video)
http://www.wavegenius.com/2011/09/20/1215pm-elliott-wave-noon-update-video-for-9-20-11-highest-nosebleed-targets-for-sp-500-dow-and-nasdaq/
Tony,I’m now confirm that (iii)rd down of 5th wave about to start any time today,rest of the week will be very bad for the market.Now I’m predicting that this down move since may’11 will get bottom around end of this month (27 to 30 september).
thx Joy
Why??
NASDAQ Visual 6 Month Chart – Upward ABC and 1-2-3 targets
http://www.wavegenius.com/2011/09/20/1119am-nasdaq-6-month-visual-chart-upward-abc-and-1-2-3-targets/
Nas Fibo…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2011/09/nas-fibo_20.html
tony, if minor a was 84 points, and yesterday was minor b, minor c = 1188+84(.618) = 1240, or 1188+84 = 1272?
Wldcttr, Also Major C = Major A @ 1246
Tony, what if major c is a trubcated wave and can not surpass 1231 ?…would be that valid for major c ?..
M1, yes as long as we get a confirmed uptrend
Would rather let bernanke hit my stoplosses than let Any planet ruin my trades
Tony no offence to anyone here but are astrological forecasts very popular there as I see regular posts on it,have never been able to digest the logic and have lost quite a lot when I followed it once
Vishal, not particularlyArch Crawford is the guru on planet alignment with the various markets.But have not followed him in decades.
Pingback: monday update
Elliott Wave Forecast Video For 9.20.11 – .618 support for DOW SPX NASDAQ
http://www.wavegenius.com/2011/09/19/elliott-wave-forecast-video-for-9-20-11-618-support-levels-in-spx-dji-comp/
New Libra Moon on Sept 27th, fits in with wave 4 highs me thinks… some say new lows… but we will see. That would be next Tuesday, so 5 fibonacci trading days beforehand… something to consider. Looking forward to shorting October.
David,maybe see a low maybe 1150th before FOMC,then a high into 27th,then putting all chips on table for a substantial move down,,,,hate the crash word
One weekly moving average combo that I use has given a clear sell signal. The best part is that this doesn’t whipsaw much. Only 6 crossovers since January 1995 and all have had pretty good follow through.
http://equitybriefcapital.wordpress.com/2011/09/19/very-rare-signal/
SP500 Next :Lower Low…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2011/09/astro-next-closer-lower-low.html
Tony’s SP 500 chart here tells it all without over analyzing. This should be a bear wedge, but just not finished yet. http://caldaro.files.wordpress.com/2011/09/spx091611.png
We should see 1239 I think as the C wave heads up, with 1252 another marker. Personally I’ll look to scale in short in those 1239-1252 windows. NASDAQ at 2680 fills a gap on the upside and a 61% retrace of the entire 2011 decline high to low. APPLE is obviously the leader and interestingly lots of high growth stocks are still climbing. These are fun markets to trade. The 1188 level was a shallow 38% retrace of the recent 1136 low to 1220 high, and it smells like teen spirit from here. Best of luck to all
hey tony, can you explain the aapl chart? its confusing thanks greg
HooLoo, counting the new uptrend currently as a B wave.
tony could be an exhaustion bar on appl
Pooch, new products, earnings, they love them apples.
Thanks Tony, If this is only a counter-trend rally, I have the same possible numbers for NDX: major a/1 in place at 2035. 2035-2268=233 (a); 2268-2113(b); 2113-? (c); If c=a (+/-)10%…c=210-256 points. So the target for major b/2= 2323-2369. It hit 2020 today and SPX is underperforming as expected. =)
Furthermore, 2082-2268=186; 2139+186=2325.
HOWEVER, if we are still in a bull market it looks we may be at the beggining of a strong 3rd wave of a new structure to the upside. So SPX may have a strong rally and join the rally taking 1231 soon.
If the later is correct, how do you think could be the count ?
M1, have not really consider a bullish count for this potential uptrend.
Love oneself, or love oneself and all others. It’s a choice. Your future depends on it. Time is short. Make the choice!
Good to hear so…. It still looks like a split market
SP500 Moon Cycle…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2011/09/astro-moon-cycle_19.html
Thanks Tony
Wow, nice Lee…the Greeks seem to eat pretty well..
imho, the only reason why banksters seem to want to make an axample out of that small country is b/c these guys are one of the few remaining succesful tax dodgers. Banks realy like 2 things: monoplies & taxes – both serve them very well. That’s why they insist on strong taxe enforcement – so the can always get their money back +interest. If I remember correctly the 16th amendment (income tax) was ratified the same year the Fed had been created (1913). Hmm..hmm.. death….banks …and taxes.