SHORT TERM: market continues to move higher, DOW +45
Overnight the Asian markets were mixed. Europe opened lower but closed +1.35%. US index futures were higher, then sharply lower, then higher again heading into the open. At 8:30 Import prices, (+0.2% vs +0.4%), and Export prices, (+0.3% vs +0.5%), came in lower. The market opened slightly higher at SPX 1163, then dipped to 1157 in the first few minutes. The SPX had closed at 1162 yesterday. The market then rallied to SPX 1174 by 10:00. After that the SPX drifted down to 1161 by 11:30 and then turned up again. At 2:00 the Budget deficit was reported inline with expectations, but much higher: -$134.2 bln vs -$90.5 bln. Around 2:30 the SPX hit 1176, then pulled back to 1165, before rallying again heading into a SPX 1173 close.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.65%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.40%. Bonds lost 12 ticks, Crude gained $1.75, Gold rose $17.00, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX moves up to 1168 and then 1146, with resistance at 1176 and then 1187. Short term momentum hit slightly overbought twice today and ended there. Tomorrow, Retail sales and the PPI at 8:30, then Business inventories at 10:00.
The market opened flat today but did manage to hit the OEW 1176 pivot in the afternoon. After a pullback to the 1168 pivot the market then headed higher into the close. Today’s action was enought to turn the short term OEW charts positive again. Near the close we updated yesterday’s tentative “green” Major wave B with the normal black label. The market should now be in a three wave Major wave C, with Intermediate wave A currently underway. Short term support is now at the OEW 1168, 1146 and 1136 pivot ranges. Overhead resistance is at the OEW 1176, 1187 pivot ranges and the low 1200′s. If very recent history continues to unfold the market should rally tomorrow, and then decline on thursday/friday after FED chairman Bernanke’s thursday AM speech. Then it should rally next week. If all falls into place we could see the mid-1200′s, (OEW 1240, 1261 pivots), soon. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend may have bottomed at SPX 1102
LONG TERM: bear market highly probable
CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987
What do you think Tony? A retest of 1178 or 1180. I got out at 1202, obvious resistance.
Just posted CC
Thanks! Your pivots have been very helpful.
Man life is awesome up 1000% in my entries at the dead stick lows in well just a lot of stuff. You have to buy my service to find out .
Cmon u can’t say X wave and Lee and not expect a visit from the troll.
great job Tony and H D
Shhh! Waiting for the 3 of 3 call. Then I’ll know starting 5 down. Almost a perfect contrarian.
Ah Lee, you’re just the man behind the curtain now.Send me a link … hahaha
Man I would pay but I put all my money in this cause a expert chart reader said this was a great stawk. (sarc)
http://elite.finviz.com/publish.ashx?t=SEED&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_10,sma2_200,sma_55,sma2_20,sar_0.02_0.2,rsi_a_5,stofu_a_5_5_3,macd_b_12_26_9,adx_b_12,cci_b_12&p=d&s=l
iMike, That looks almost as good as this one:http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PPC&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p35470345737&a=243747712
Love oneself, or love oneself and all others. It’s a choice. Your future depends on it. Time is short. Make the choice!
Hey! At least yours is a real business. not a red army commy ____.
Seed got took from me a while back. I’m a problem child.
Tried to – it back years ago. “they No barrow for yous me!
http://elite.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=SEED&ty=c&ta=0&p=m
Dbl chocolate muffin
I’ve got 1202 and change on my radar.
Tony, in my opinion NDX got an uptrend confirmation today…do you see the same ?
M1, no
Life is good, we entered SOXL from 29.65 to 30.50 today, just sold 1/2 up 6-7% intra-day.
Clearly a WTF wave
Great calls all week Tony.
It’s an X wave HD, an X wave.Just joking!
Ex-Trader Lee said we were heading to 1200 this week.
Ex… ha- He knew it and so did you! Happy to have got a couple points from it. Way overbought. Near symmetry from 1140-1204 and 1136-1200 GL
Key breakout levels taken out – SPX 1189.50 and NASDAQ 2568 – (VIDEO update)
http://www.wavegenius.com/2011/09/14/elliott-wave-midday-update-video-for-9-14-11-spx-broke-1189-50-and-nasdaq-broke-2568-both-key-breakout-levels/
1186 taken out
Tony if one was long, you would tend to tend to stay long till Oew charts stay positive or exit on wave targets let’s say in today’s scenario 1230-1250, what’s a better way to play?
Scale in … Scale outYou need to create a strategy
NASDAQ break of 2610 = 2850? (Visual 3 Month Chart)
http://www.wavegenius.com/2011/09/14/1241pm-nasdaq-3-month-visual-chart-a-break-of-2610-2850/
WOW Merdith Whitney just said stocks are an incredible opportunity at these levels.Biggest bear turned Bull!!!
Elliott Wave Noon Update Video for 9.14.11 – 3rd waves setting up -again- for DOW S&P and NASDAQ
http://www.wavegenius.com/2011/09/14/1211pm-elliott-wave-noon-update-video-for-9-14-11-3rd-wave-setups-in-dow-nasdaq-and-sp-again/
Thanks Tony,But in Ending diagonal 5th wave,1st and 4th wave can overlap.
Joy, yes indeed.
Very interesting Joy. Good eyes
Tony, if NDX roll over from here could be possible it has its major 2/b in place at 2240 ?..or it still needs more upside ?
M1, We need an uptrend confirmation to confirm the wave.Nothing yet.
Thanks Tony, NDX has a different count than SPX, right ?…so if it roll over without an uptrend confirmation I wonder how could be the count ? ..just curious
Thanks again.
M1, So far, we have on downtrend in the NDX/NAZ and that is it.Actually it is good that these two are out of sync with the SPX/DOW.This tends to weaken the decline.When they are all in sync, like 2007 – 2011, the market can make big moves.
If 1180 gets taken out again, I could see a test of 1200 today.
Tony,Market action forced me to change the ongoing 5th wave down count slightly.From the start of this 5th or C(v) since 1231 we may have completed (i)st @1140,(ii)nd @1204,(iii)rd @1136.Now in (iv)th and about to start (v)th which may not go bellow 1102.So we may get failed 5th wave here to conclude this downtrend around 1120 this week or early next week.
Hi Joy, Your waves are overlapping.
Tony,Bears believe October 2011 will be a replica of 2008, 2 such crashes in three yrs has iit happened before? It’s just an assumption Ofcourse but I just wanted historical perspective
Vishal, Historically, 2008 was a rare event.Stock markets do not drop 20% in a week on a regular basis.The permabears are actually still looking for 1987 type action: 20% in one day.
Haha I get where your coming from Tony, being obsessed with one count or one view can be quite costly as each one of us has found out in our careers, thanks for bringing objectivity in your analysis
Tony how do you see European situation resolving in the weeks months to come,I know no one knows how it will pan out, but I wanted to know your perspective from your previous experiences and how similar is it to Asian crisis after which US began it’s decade long bull Mkt
Vishal, Today the head of the ECU suggested they start thinking about Euro Bonds.Europe was up big today.It’s a start.
I believe more apt to see 3-5% moves in October and rest of year
Tony what is your time frame if wave C were to hit 1240-60? End of month,mid Oct, end of Oct?thanks Pooch
Were looking at early October
Thanks Tony your the best
Lovely!
Make no mistake…..Tony is one of the best there is at EW. I always try to trade with one of his counts. As an active trader it is up to me to decide which count holds the most weight, which time frame I want to use and where I want to enter and exit trades along the way. As one of my counts , I also have an ABC to the 1240 area. I preferred the Int. wave 5 wave down starting at 1200 area and traded the first and second waves as such. I do not like the stall and am now shifting more weight to the possibility of an ABC. This is a news driven market and it can turn on you in a flash…especially if you hold overnight. .Now 80% of the trades are done by supercomputers running algorythms….and nobody told them they were supposed to follow Elliot Wave Theory. Be careful and take some profits when you get them.
My Bad…..I meant INT. wave 5 down starting at 1230 area.
Dont look now gang, but the Semi Conductor index may be forming a huge W bottom, and is a leading indicator. Long FIO up 7.7% yesterday from buy in. Here is a chart of SOXL, 3xbull chip stocks… looks like 35-37 next. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SOXL&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p45479439574
in case you all did not know, Morgan has put together short squeeze baskets on tech names; To see all MS swap baskets hit “MSSA”
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Nice!
Hi tony,
I think SPX is in a downtrend from 1231 where it finished its recent abc correction and it is in its wave v ending diagonal.
Thanks
http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2011/09/sp500-fibo_14.html
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38451750
Lol, no ones gona get paid for Greek swaps.
Maybe Benron can explains at the “systemic rodeo” am!
thanks Tony. what speech is Ben giving this week?
September 15Speech–Chairman Ben S. Bernanke Brief Opening Remarks At the Conference on the Regulation of Systemic Risk, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C. 8:45 a.m.
thanks – I searched but could not find it
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-13/swiss-1970s-inflation-specter-seen-in-central-bank-s-unlimited-franc-sales.html
Nice historical perspective… Now this may trigger Gold 3750 USD after falling to 1600 in Oct ha!
Hi Tony, just recently came across your blog. Noticed that you have SC3 likely to complete next yr (or possibly 2014) with a target around S&P 870-1010ish. At the rate this market is moving its possible we could get down to that area this year.
From this I assume you are not expecting a retest of 2007 low ?
Also, once this low is reached, you expecting a bull run which will exceed previous all time highs ?
Welcome Zebm, Supercycle SC2 completed in 2009.We are now in the basebuilding stages of SC3.The first bull market has unfolded, now we’re in a bear.We do not expect a full retracement, maybe 50% – 61.8%.
Sorry Tony, not sure how to edit my previous post, should have read it before posting!
I mean’t u were looking for [ii] of SC3 to be in the 935-1010ish area, followed by a [iii] which would exceed SC2 highs ?
By this I guess you aren’t expecting the lows of 2009 to be retested ?
Elliott Wave Forecast Video For 9.14.11 – Best Case/Worst Case scenarios for DOW S&P NASDAQ
http://www.wavegenius.com/2011/09/13/elliott-wave-forecast-video-for-9-14-11-best-caseworst-case-for-dow-sp-nasdaq/
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We entered an alert to go long FIO at 19.38 this morning early on. Closed up about 5% plus and we plan to hold. With that said, yes the action looks bullish until the 21st, then we head down again
http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2011/09/aapl-reversal.html
thanks. can see a falling wedge on the spx hourly. a break above 1176 pivot, potentially +80 points = right at your 1240,1261 pivots. cheers!
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/nyse-short-interest-soars-highest-july-2009-epic-squeeze-forming-bank-america-shares