SHORT TERM: market drifts higher in choppy session, DOW +144
Overnight the Asian markets were all lower. Europe opened higher and closed +2.10%. US index futures were lower entering the open, and at 8:30 Durable goods orders were reported much higher: +4.0% vs -1.9%. The market opened to the downside at SPX 1158 and slipped to 1156 in the opening minutes. The SPX had closed at 1162 yesterday. Right after the opening low the market started to rally. At 10:00 the FHFA housing index was reported higher: +0.9% vs +0.4%. Then after 10:00 the SPX hit 1175, hitting the OEW 1176 pivot, and began to pullback. Around 12:00 the market retested the day’s low at SPX 1156 and tried to rally again. Heading into the close the market made a higher high at SPX 1179, around 3:30, and closed at 1178.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +1.30%, and the NDX/NAz were +0.80%. Bonds lost 31 ticks, Crude slipped 40 cents, Gold dropped $70.00, and the USD was higher. Support for the SPX jumos to 1176 and then 1168, with resistance at 1187 and then 1222. Short term momentum hovered around overbought for most of the day. Tomorrow, weekly Jobless claims at 8:30.
The market opened lower and only pulled back a few points from yesterday’s closing high. Then it rallied to a higher high for this two day surge. So far this rally has had some positives that were lacking in previous rallies during this downtrend. There has been buying heading into the close, banks (KBE/KRE) have been rallying, Bonds have started to selloff, and Gold has dropped over $150 in just the two days. Risk may be back on, and Safe haven off. At least for the time being.
While this market is displaying some nice upside momentum. Unfortunately, the short term wave count is no clearer than it was yesterday. We are maintaining both potential counts, with the upward bias noted yesterday, on the SPX charts. Short term support notches up to the 1176 and 1168 pivots, with resistance at the 1187 pivot and the low 1200′s. Friday’s FED speech better have some investor friendly news, or else this market is setting itself up for a big disappointment. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend low at SPX 1102
LONG TERM: bear market highly probable
CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987
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Vertical move up tomorrow ?
last day
Just 4 U
Pivot and fibs 1
INV HNS 0
new low by 1 tick then pop
Thank goodness I’m starting a service biz
I want to get paid just for breathing
What kind of service?
energy/utility consulting. Brokering wholesale deregulated utility contracts for commercial clients
And maybe do some work as a kids party clown on the weekends:)
Lee, That sounds like fun.You can teach your clients how to hedge energy costs.And teach the kids how to trade for a living.Expect to see lots of kiddie commercials, like this, in the future.Only brought to you by Lee-Trade
https://us.etrade.com/e/t/jumppage/viewjumppage?PageName=etrade_super_tv_ads
Oh magnificient Tony… If you could look into
your crystal ball, do you see Gold entering a multi month multi quarter correction or a fast
then up .. Secondly how far down do you
see the commodotity currencies correcting…
Like my beloved Canadian loonie .. Do u see it
much below the American dollar?? Thank you
Tony!!
Hi Loonie, Gold has probably entered a correction which should last a month or two.Most of the foreign currencies are looking a bit toppy compared to the USD.CHF, CAD, JPY should have peaked and should now be heading lower.The EUR peaked quite a while ago.The AUD should make another high. Think the 2012 cycle low for the USD arrived early.
Thanks so much Tony
much appreciated!!
Elliott Wave Midday Update Video for 8.25.11 – Most bullish scenario
http://www.wavegenius.com/2011/08/25/230pm-elliott-wave-midday-update-video-for-8-25-11-most-bullish-scenario/
Strongly suspect a contracting triangle is what is happening.
Potential Highs 1180
1181
1186
All of the above have been met today
Potential Lows 1150
1146
1136
Suspect the 1146 or the 1136 as they both line up with Tony’s Pivots.
Will be shorting S&P if it will reach 1168 and will hold down to 1152 ( Have to leave some room for error)
Best to all
Dave
I guess we are looking at a IHS at the moment breaking out…I guess that projects to 1178ish?
If ur looking for INV HNS on SPX u can start nibbling here
ESU stopped at .382 back from low to high intra day @ 1165.50 also Tonys Pivot
36 hours left
thx Dave
Cancelled short order. Unwilling to carry overnight if filled, will start over tomorrow.
Best
Dave
That is what I see as well. 1148 is key support. Then maybe a run up to 1170 or so and that may be the top and the final leg down will be underway.
Elliott Wave Noon Update Vide For 8.25.11 – .618 and previous 4 support for SPX DJI COMP
http://www.wavegenius.com/2011/08/25/elliott-wave-noon-update-video-for-8-25-11-618-and-previous-4-support/
missed yes low in ES by 2 ticks
if ur looking for 1200 + heres ur cheap long
risk 1 handle :0
logging off
nice, Lee! you trade faster than most people can blink . Ah, those 3 sec. charts
FIbs – 1121 – 1190
23.6 – 1174
38.2 – 1164
50 – 1156
61.8 – 1148
76.4 – 1137
Intra-day – From highs 1190 to lows 1159
23.6 – 1167
38.2 – 1171
50 – 1175
61.8 – 1178
23.6 – 1183
Fibs – Lows of ~1159 to ~1169 recent day’s high
23.6 – 1167.12
38.2 – 1165.72
50.0 – 1164.58
61.8 – 1163.45
76.4 – 1162.05
Nothing cryptic or clever to say though, sorry guys
Hi Tony, Could your secondary SPX count become a wedge/triangle (abcde), or is it constrained to be a zigzag?
Also, is the blue line at 1650ish on daily gold a pivot? It’s the only one, so it was confusing me.
Hi Pat, The SPX could turn into a triangle yes.Been in a trading range for a while now.Expecting support at that level for Gold.
pivot time at the highs …cmon guys who’s taking over here ?
No overlap on ST ES count…yet
cheap long Tony ? ! day left
Lee, 1187 pivot yes.DAX is getting slammed.Slipped thru the 1168 pivot range …. needs to hold
Thanks Tony
Rumors of down grade and short selling ban in der fader land
CL retraced .50% exactly from yes high to last weeks low at 83.00
All US agencies reaffirmed AAA.
never a doubt
heres a fade my last one
new highs on the day coming
I am trying to keep up but I have to keep my day job so I can keep trading.
You daytraders will have to take up the slack for Lee’s absense…Who’s ready?
Hey 5 waves
It’s super silly
The only way to catch all this is to never get out
Best to u !
1164 .382 Fib (1121 – 1190)
So much for that Fib
Tony, just a quick general question, please: does a truncated 5th imply a completed impulse with more downside down the road, or does it reverse the previous trend?
CB, If we had a truncated fifth we should be in an uptrend.
If that was a trunc 5, and we have seen 5 waves from 1121, then would ~1150/1148 needs to hold? Am I right?
1146 pivot yes
thanks Tony.
ok thanks Tony
and thanks 5waves
This is looking like a wave iv triangle to me. This morning would have completed c. Still d down and e up to go before new lows. As per my work the Nasdaq Composite should not get above 2600 before making new lows. 1200 should also be a tough nut to crack for the S&P 500. Therefore, the wave iv triangle and what we are seeing now makes sense.
This is what I’m following; but a little stretch to count a,b, and c as 3 waves.
Tony,if all asset classes fall tomorrow after the big event,where would you like to accumulate the dips,equity? Gold? I know it all depends how much they fall if at all they fall,but if you could Plz answer hypothetically where would you wanna be long?
Hi Vishal, Only one hypothetical answer: GOLD.Commodities are the only real bull market in town.
If this rally is only a wave “c”, then imho it has already hit the first possible target range
1208-1101=107(a)
107*.618=66…..1121 + 66+/-10% = 1180-1193
M1….Wave “A” at 1208. Wave “B” at 1121. Wave “C” to 1230 area to finish Wave 4. I am not ruling out that that wave 2 of wave 5 down just finished at this level, and we go down from here.
kjbo, do you see three waves from 1121 ??…how is that count ?
M1….I dont see a REPLY button below you post so I will put it here.
That count is from ther Daily chart. I see 5 distinct waves up from 1121 on the 15 and 30 minute charts to end wave 2 of wave 5 down at this level. I am open to both counts in this screwed up market.
what do you think, Tony ?…did we have 5 waves or 3 waves ?
Tony
Assuming gold continues to trade lower as it did after it’s peak in 1980. At what price would you start to entertain the possibility that it’s bull market is over ? thanks!
Hi JaJa, If it trades under $1478
Hi Tony,
Hi everyone,
When the market was falling sharply in early August, it reminded me of two previous examples of 2008:
1.) January 2008 decline, followed by a doulbe bottom near 1275 and then some kind of a rally into May. If the current market is following this path, then the rally fom this week’s low can carry a bit further in the next couple of months and eventually reach 1250/60 before the larger-degree downtrend resumes.
2.) October 2008 decline, followed by a sharp rally, another re-test of the low and then a rally that did not exceed the previous peak. And then the larger-degree downtrend resumed in early November. If $SPX follows this path, then the current rally from this week’s low will top out sometime next week below 1210 and then in early September (my feeling is: after the Labor Day), the downtrend will resume for new lows twd 1060.
Just wanted to point out these two potential scenarios derived from a past experience. Of course, history never repeats exactly, but maybe it is worth paying attention to these two models.
Sorry, no charts this time.
Alexander
thx Alexander
Thanks, I noticed that as well…as you said…history never repeats exactly…
Gold count looks incomplete,another high is required to top gold.silver currently in B wave of ABC decline which should top with gold.Now perfect stage is prepared for stock down and gold-silver up to make their bottom and tops possibly next week,august end(! remember?).
Market is supreme,it changes colour very rapidly.Now I’ think from 1208 high we are in 5th wave of 1st wave down of bear market.Recent low at 1121 was (i)st wave todays high at 1178(62% retrace of 1st) is (ii)nd wave of this 5th wave.So we about to fall hard in (iii)rd wave.
The problem with this count is that (ii) looks impulsive…if that is correct a corrective wave should follow…
if we fall hard then we would probably have to adjust
Joydeep, I agree. That is one of the two counts I posted teo days ago. The other is that we are in a “C” wave up to 1230 area to complete wave 4. If we trade above 1190 then chances favor the ABC count. Everyone waiting on the FED. There is no way that one idiot should have that much control of a “FREE” market.
Elliott Wave Forecast Video For 8.24.11 – Highest Nosebleed 3rd Wave Targets
http://www.wavegenius.com/2011/08/24/elliott-wave-forecast-video-for-8-24-11-highest-3rd-wave-nosebleed-targets/
http://www.cnbc.com/id/44264105
Would like to see the market reaction tomorrow…but I would not be surprise if we see a big selloff.
=)
http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2011/08/xauusd-fibo_24.html
Hi Tony, What’s your opinion on Gold? Is it following expected path (iv down???)?
Yes.Gold actually got ahead of itself. And just like Silver and the Swiss Franc recently many exited the trade all at once.
Thanks Tony. Do you have this downtrend target for Gold?
Hi Scorp, $1650-$1700
Thanks Tony,
one question: do we have three or five waves from 1121 ?
Looks impulsive
http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2011/08/astro-moon-august-2011_24.html
Thanks Tony
thanks tony! i noticed xlf and xlk made lower lows, while the rest of the spdrs did not. transports did as well. just an observation.
Hi Wldcuttr, Yes noticed that as well.Some indices did five down, others failed the fifth.