SHORT TERM: market gaps up again, DOW +214
Overnight the Asian markets open were all higher. Europe opened higher and closed +0.50%. US index futures were higher overnight, and @ 8:30 the NY FED was reported in the negative again: -7.7 vs -3.8. Stocks gapped up at the open for the third day in a row, and fourth time in five trading days. The SPX opened at 1188, friday’s close was 1178, and rallied to 1200 by 10:30. At 10:00 the NAHB housing index was reported flat: 15 vs 15. During the next hour the market pulled back to the opening level at SPX 1188 and then started to rally. Heading into the close the market hit its best level of the day, at SPX 1204, and closed there.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +2.00%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.75%. Bonds lost 14 ticks, Crude rallied $2.50, Gold rose $16.00, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX jumps to 1187 and then 1176, with resistance now at 1222 and then 1240. Short term momentum is overbought. Tomorrow, Housing starts, Building permits, and Import/Export prices all @ 8:30. Then @ 9:00 Congressional testimony from FED director Bertsch, and @ 9:15 Industrial production and Capacity utilization.
The market started the day on the upside, gapping up and rallying to SPX 1200. Around 10:00 the SPX cleared the OEW 1187 pivot, retested it, and then went higher. This rally was somewhat of a surprise, but still within the context of an ongoing Int. wave iv. Should the SPX clear the next pivot at 1222, then we will have to reconsider whether or not the downtrend could have completed at 1102. Until then, an important European meeting tomorrow should provide the market with additional information on the European debt problem. The short term OEW charts remain positive with support in the 1187 pivot range. Overhead resistance is now at SPX 1214 and then the 1222 pivot. A decline through the OEW 1187 pivot range should indicate that Int. wave v is underway. Tomorrow could be an important day. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend low SPX 1102
LONG TERM: bear market highly probable
CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987
Adios muchachos and senoritas
have a good one Lee. thanks for your help!
Broke down through 1187 and then burst back up above it. Seems like fairly bullish defense of the support, no…?
RC, market did not clear the pivot range (1180-1194).Just dropped into support and rallied again.
gotcha, thanks! still trying to learn all this good stuff… appreciate it
sure was…hit that TL twice..now what, though? ..more of the same tomorrow ?
http://screencast.com/t/bWaujpnLkwu
thanks Tony!
SPX 1295
http://www.marketwatch.com/
Ole death cross has em worrying eh
Has the Hildenberg show up yet =)
Hey Tony
This was the last sighting ..look at the date
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/hindenburg-omen-here
thanks Lee, August 2010 a few days too early
only death cross so far today was selling at the 1187 pivot
Agree, and yesterday too.Thursday/friday it was resisitance.Key level going forward.
geeeeeeeez 1195 *
They sure like 1187 past 2 days
We should get some distance here soon IMO
Lee, what’s your take on ZC today please , a break-out,or a fake-out..? http://screencast.com/t/VdP69UztJwx thanks!
Hey C B
Id guess head fake
but I’m not bearish
wow, you have good diplomatic skills, Lee!…I need a mind-reader now…lol.. thanks Lee!
..I wish they’d stop looking over their shoulder every time there is a dip in spx…c’mon escape into grains, folks
Lots of headline risks C B and it looks like it’s here for a little bit longer.
haaa yes those were lame answers….. probably cause I’m a little lost with ZC right now because of Tony’s count in SPX
No, they weren’t lame at all….you’ve summed up beautifully all the gyrations that we’re going thru now, which you can play so well because of how fast you can react…
I am in a different situation…I need a clear break-out to take the risk overnight…or I am toast..
Great call yesterday, Lee, and your 1195 id definitely intriguing…need to give it some nice name….Lee-Kaching-ivot ,maybe..?
20dma is at abt 1247… 5ema is acting as support….if we don’t brake that support soon I am afraid the 20dma will be like a magnet
It looks the bears don’t want to hear any bullish idea … but I think only a big move (I am talking abt trying to brake the 1001 lows) would surprise me
today
U guys see what I see ? SPX ES CL
shoot..what is it ?
haaa It was just the 1187 pivot MGD
I do think if we cant hold above 1195 in SPX right now that 1187 pivot will get busted fairly easily
Lee, Crude?
Thanks Lee. If 1204.49 was the SPX top then 1187 should be broken soon
Thanks Tony, ok. 1187.
it looks interm iv got on board in the last minute. We’ll see, but Europe may help.
Im thinking we just had 5 waves up from 1101 to 1204, now 3 waves down to 1152/65 pivots for bulls to stay in charge. We will see…
Tony
This is how I see the wave structure from Mar/09
1- 667 (Mar/09) – 949 ( June/09)
2 – 949 – 869 ( July/09 )
3- 869 – 1219 (Apr/10)
4 – 1219 – 1010 (July/10)
5 – 1010 – 1361 (Apr/11)
A – 1361 – 1102 (Aug/11)
B – 1102 – present
C – to follow high of B wave down to significant resistance in the 1048 area
I may be out a few points here and there because I only use percentages on PnF charts
If I am all wet please let me know because as you know I am very new to this and welling to learn from my mistakes.
Best to you
Dave
Hi Dave, Your wave 3 was three waves, and your wave 5 was three waves also. But you do have the general idea of a lower market ahead.
Thanks Tony
(iv)th wave of C still in progress and it should top out this week around 1222 pivot before the final (v)th wave makes bottom bellow 1100 around month’s end.From september onwards market will be in real uptrend for Intermediate (V)th wave which will make life time highs next year.
? Thats differnt view,thought the consensus was a1500 point move off the lows in wave iv than after wave v up a plunge of 15-20 % am i missing something in your counts.Thanks great calls by the way
Confused, but once again I wonder if my old alt count could be unfolding…Feb-Mar (A)…Mar-Jul (abc) (B), Jul-Aug (C).. P1 already completed and P2 underway. The numbers for spx 95*2.618=248….1347-248=1099….for dji 836*2.618=2188…12750-2188=10561
Now, if “a” was 71 points I guess “c” could go to 1.61 of “a” at 1232.
P3=2.62 of P1=637 points (if the numbers made are correct)
For the Interm iv case, I think we need to see this wave to start very soon if we want to keep this count alive.
Good Luck
I just checked the futures. Well, it looks the interm iv case may survive after all.
Tony, should we watch 1170 or 1160 to confirm ?
Clear the 1168 pivot range first.
Sorry, 1187 pivot range
Elliott Wave Forecast For 8.16.11 – 55/45 Bullish..here’s why..
http://Wavegenius.com/intraday
What makes you think the CRASH is over – done…?
http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2011/08/sp500-interesting-fibo.html
RN65-
631 if you want to be exact for the .618 retrace using your numbers, which were not my numbers. You can have mild overthrows…
Throwing this count out for thoughts. I know the 4th wave isn’t ideal but this rally has carried further than I expected. Felt certain we would get a strong open, close gaps and get some weakness into the close.
http://equitybriefcapital.wordpress.com/2011/08/15/potential-bullish-wave-count/
FYI, I admit the wave 4 isn’t ideal but the final low at 1174 doesn’t overlap the wave 1 high at 1173.
Thanks ebc.
Tony and Lee
We will see. It’s fun to try to anticipate for sure. Clearly all the 13 fib’s and sentiments and insider buying coupled with the wave patterns tells you to give it a shot. Since you had 5 waves up to 1370, would it not make possible sense then to have 3 waves down to correct it? Wouldnt primary 1 have to be 5 waves up?
I mean, did we not have an ABC Correction over about 9 years from 2000-2009 that ended at a .618% retracement of the 74 lows to 2000 highs exactly at .618.
Would we not then impulse up in 5 primary waves to all time highs?
666 to 1221
1220- 1010
1010-1343
1343-1256
1256-1370?
ABC-
1370 to 1258
1258 to 1347
1347-1101
Primary 3:
1101- ??
Ah , who knows… but the bears need to start growling I guess.
David, Read your post and I am interested in your retracement calculation from the ’74 lows to the 2000 highs. I don’t get 61.8%. I show the market topped on 03-24-2000(1552.87) and the 74 low on 10-04-1974(60.96). Do you have something different? These numbers are for the SP500 from Yahoo historical data. Thanks, Rob
Can anyone find a count that has Primary 2 ending at SPX 1101 ?
It lines up perfectly with the .382 13/13 scenario
Seems to me people are not giving it enough respect
Found one
http://www.activetradingpartners.com/signup.php
If the entire move from Mar09 to May11 was Primary I.Otherwise it would be stretching EW to make it fit.
Thanks Tony :>)
Are you sampling the sweet corn and peaches down there yet ?
Yes, the count I stated here last week, but I’m not sure I believe in it. The whole structure
from the Feb high to 1101 may have just been an “A” of something bigger. Time will tell and one has to be patient. The point to enter long was at the end of the day Wednesday last week and take your chances.
Yes sir, that 1101 C wave low is coming more into clear view. 38% retrace of entire bull cycle in 3 wave fashion, 13 fibonacci months from July 10 lows, 13 fibonacci weeks from bin laden highs of 1370. major insider buying, hugely negative sentiment. I don’t think ANYONE is giving this any creedence as a primary wave 2 bottom at 1101. Well, we will see. Good work as always Tony!
Thanks Tony
cheers Lee!