SHORT TERM: market gaps down then recovers somewhat, DOW -88
Overnight the Asian markets were mostly lower. Europe opened lower but closed mixed. US index futures were lower overnight and the market gapped down to SPX 1335 at the open. The SPX had closed at 1345 on friday. In the opening minutes the market dipped to SPX 1331, got oversold for the first time since last monday, and then began to rally. At 11:00 the FED released the following: http://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/other-reports/default.htm#creditratings. The market continued to rally into the afternoon. Around 1:00 the SPX hit resistance at 1344 and began to pullback. This pullback continued into a SPX 1337 close.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.65%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.40%. Bonds lost 7 ticks, Crude dropped 75 cents, Gold rallied $15.00 and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX remains at 1313 and then 1303, with resistance at 1363 and then 1372. Short term momentum hit oversold this morning then turned higher. Tomorrow, Case-Shiller at 9:00, then Consumer confidence and New homes sales at 10:00.
The market stalled around the SPX 1344 area on thursday/friday. Pulled back 10 SPX points on friday. Rallied just short of the SPX 1347 high friday, and then pulled back even further today to 1331 today. Thus far, we can count the rally from last monday’s SPX 1296 low to 1347 having only one pullback of 10 points or more. Today’s decline did get the market oversold. On the bullish side: we can count the rally and pullback as Minute waves one and two of Minor 5. On the bearish side: we can consider this the beginning of a much larger decline. All we can be sure of at the moment, is this market has been trapped between the OEW 1261 pivot and 1372 pivot for all of 2011. The short term OEW charts remain positive with support at SPX 1335, then the 1313 and 1291 pivot ranges. Overhead resistance remains in the SPX 1344 area, then the 1363 and 1372 pivot ranges starting with 1356. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend high SPX 1356
LONG TERM: bull market remains at inflection point
CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987
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Heres a fib before I wander off
1320 = .50 % 1291.25 – 1347.75 ESU
HDVOT ..watch it next big fib is 1187 not a typo..
pivot sorry not fib..even though it is a fib ..u know what I mean
thx Lee, market hanging around 1320 right now
Thanks Tony for all your work in a difficult market. The indicators I follow just signaled a new sell signal for the SP500 (the Dow and NAZ did it yeasterday) http://hgpolites3.wordpress.com/ While it takes four days to fully confirm a sell signal in this system to avoid whiplashing, the overall strength of the trend is not looking good. Typically sell signals in this system are confirmed by the third day (this Friday) or the lates the fourth day (Monday) – could be some nasty market action coming……Greg
Thanks Greg, continue to see internal weakness.
Tony,
I’m seeing the same. Internals yesterday were horrible and we haven’t seen 4000 net advances on the Wilshire 5000 in about 8 months.
http://equitybriefcapital.wordpress.com/
Interesting thx Parkus
Thanks guys
Whats with HG then ?
Just a corrective move up ?
A commodity
..maybe just short-covering after the weak housing data today…or a move related to similar behavior in Molly corp, FXI, FCX..etc… which all look similar…maybe ready to run again?
what do you think, Lee?
Hey C B
I think its an Equity blog here
Later !
Looks like the bottom is in on MCP.
thanks ebc. Nice volume, too.
MA89 signal on deck. Should get a washout if they lose 1330 IMO
CLU traded .382 back last weeks high/low @ 97.79
Thanks H D !
No ones buying the HDVOT ?
I’m not trading ES
Hey C B
Nothing I see in GC is anything new yet
thanks fibolicious. yeah, I donated some $ to CL …now I am trying not to donate to corn…this budget spactacle is……well…no comment
No trades here. A missed opportunity for sure.
You can handle it HD. You’ve got ur own newsletter now
CL
Check it out sometime when you’re not killing em in Equities
“a deficit plan that ignores them fails a basic logic, math, and coherence test”
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2011/07/the-chart-that-should-accompany-all-discussions-of-the-debt-ceiling/242484/
Now I am almost certain that this 4th wave will bottom in august-end when other global markets also get their bottom for next and final upmove to conclude their bull run.In my count C(iii) taken 10 months(july’10-april’11) so C(v) should be lesser than that.So this bull run may extend till may-june next year.In short term we are in C(i) of ABC down from spx1356.
Aug 2 or my vacation starts late? Hey BO, you forgot your gse’s need cash now.( you know the ponzi thing Tim Tim handles) BO completely caves in a few days. Looked squirmy..
Thanks Tony
Inflection point indeed.
Hey Lee. Could you pls. give us ur thoughts on gold if anything shows up on ur radar? thanks.
Thanks Tony,
I was expecting spx to start a new wave up, but it looks like NDX is ending diagonal its minute 5 of minor 5…this may suggest the structure from june 16 is completed now and we should see a correction quite soon…NDX printed new highs today.
If NDX is in PV, we may call this structure as Interm 1, right ?..Interm 2 should follow and it could retrace 50% or more..I guess we should be bearish now
Bearish scenario, NDX completed wave c of B and now starting wave C down. I commented this possible count a few days ago
MGD, The NDX/DOW have both had five waves up during this uptrend.If the SPX/NAZ fail to confirm and we start heading down it may not be too good longer term.
Tony, it looks like the uptrend line support july21 – july 25 is holding NDX….maybe the uptrend is not finished yet….if it brakes down we may see a sharp selloff….the market has the final word
Tony, thanks. Are you expecting a correction in gold next week after the political noise dies down….if so, what levels are you watching?
CB,Nothing yet for Gold.Just had a $30 pullback last week
Thanks Tony. I thought that since the vol on down days was heavy & on on up days pretty anemic recently (in ETFs) we’re headed for a shake-out soon. Who says we need volume to do anything, though ?….
Thx CB