SHORT TERM: new bull market highs, DOW +115
Overnight the Asian markets were all lower. Europe opened lower but closed up 0.85%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 9:00 Case-Shiller reported lower housing prices: 139.27 vs 140.86. The market opened at SPX 1338 and continued to rally. The SPX had closed at 1335 yesterday. At 10:00 Consumer confidence was reported higher: 65.4 vs 63.4, while the FED started its FOMC meeting. The rally continued and by 10:30 the SPX hit a new bull market high. Around noon the SPX hit 1350 and began to pullback. Around 1:30 the SPX neared 1345 and then tried to rally again. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1349 and pulled back to end the day at 1347.
For the day the SPX/DOW were 0.90%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.65%. Bonds gained 13 ticks, Crude slipped 25 cents, Gold slid $5.00, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX remains at 1313 and then 1303, with resistance at 1363 and then 1372. Short term momentum moved right back to extremely overbought today after dropping below neutral yesterday. Tomorrow, the FED concludes its two day meeting with an afternoon statement and a press conference with chairman/ceo Bernanke. Also tomorrow Durable goods orders will be reported at 8:30.
Index futures traded higher overnight and this morning’s earnings reports helped the market open higher and push higher throughout the morning. After the rally got going there was little hesitation breaking the bull market high at SPX 1344. A new high was posted at SPX 1350. The next objective for this market, of course, would be the OEW 1363 pivot. This would be a logical area for a Minor wave 1 high and then a 15-20 point Minor wave 2 pullback. Let’s see how this plays out with FOMC day tomorrow and FED speeches into the end of the week. Short term support is now at SPX 1334 and then the 1313/1303 pivots, with resistance at the 1363/1372 pivots. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend high SPX 1350
LONG TERM: bull market
CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987
http://www.cnbc.com/id/42784181
Tony, semis are far from their 2001 highs … a buying oportunity ?
2011
Hi MGD, We liked the Semi’s coming into the August 2010 low, still do. http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2010/12/02/sox-index-update/
Love oneself, or love oneself and all others. It’s a choice. Your future depends on it. Time is short. Make the choice!
http://www.fox17online.com/news/fox17-west-michigan-severe-weather-tornado-large-hail-20110426,0,1625664.story
Hey Tony
12 inches in my parents rain gauge since friday. They needed rain but this is a bit much.
Hope all is well.
The link I sent is from the local news in MI.
That tornado hit 14 miles north of our place in MI.
Lee, Yes it’s swamp city here after a very cold winter. Lots of flood warnings everywhere. Nasty winter/spring
Hi Tony. Sweet call on SLV hitting 43.50. 43.55 was low for the day! Added to my Sliver position shortly after your feedback this morning. Many thanks.
Probably drove by your ‘hood this afternoon on my way to Nashville from St Louis. (Our airport is not in great shape at the moment.)
Cheers. Billy
Hi Billy, Yes that tornado friday night did Lambert in. If you took RT. 57 you did. So far, so good in late trading. cheers!
Tony, does micro 5 for silver need to exceed the micro 3 price or that’s not a requirement? Silver seems to be ramping up in after hours. It sure looks like the pull back had something to do with expiration today.
Expiration is normally a rough time for the metals. Yes, that would be expected.
http://finviz.com/futures_performance.ashx?v=17
Just had to post pre Benron…..
While short one cds dept swaps cash…:/. Have pre vid of dog and pony show!
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38451750
These things are the biggest bulls of my lifetime. Being a srimp. Can’t get in. Lol
Those Fed boys might not say much but they dance funny….
Thanks Tony.
I am not sure from looking at the $NYAD chart…are you happy with the way it has actcted today….or has it failed to make a higher high?
Thought it made a new high.
Thanks Tony. I really liked that write-up about $NYAD you’ve done recently …it’s such a precise and useful indicator.
Just one indicator CB. Don’t bet the Chicago ranch on it =)
Love oneself, or love oneself and all others. It’s a choice. Your future depends on it. Time is short. Make the choice!
Haha, Tony how did you know that thoughts like that still occasionally cross my mind..?….but no, a Chicago ranch would be a keeper…so I won’t do it…
I was just amazed to see how well it caught the top in 2007…
And 1987 and 1990 too. 2000 was kind of a failure because it peaked in 1998 and only dotcoms/tech were rising after that.
That’s interesting, Tony. Thanks!
Rally is just above the 1344 pivot at 1347 … seems with the extreme overbought nature of this minor wave up to 1363 we may retest the breakout point of 1340 before we see 1363. Fed hype tomorrow may be a little overblown. QE2 coming to an end not just starting so big boys may sell the news late Wednesday or Thursday post announcement. Could we trade all the way down to the pivot at 1334 without ruining the upside target of 1363 to 1372? -CJ
Those are a lot of questions for a simple country boy like Tony.
Thanks Tony !
Speaking of crazy Southern Illinois weather…
Ya’ll be safe down there tonite and tomorrow.
Thanks we need a break … today was a sunny spring day 70′s
Tony, ….and 1344 was finally broken today…
how much do you think the market could rally if QE3 were announced or suggested tomorrow ?
Hi MGD, Does that stand for Miller Golden Draft? QE 3, it is unlikely they will end QE 2. The monetary base has already exceeded expectations. Which implies it’s a third of a third rather than a fifth. Do not think the FED has to say anything at the moment. They have another meeting in June.
MGD 64..Cheers !!