SHORT TERM: market rallies to new highs, DOW +72
Overnight the Asian markets were mostly higher. Europe opened higher and closed +1.0%. US index futures were higher overnight as well. At 8:15 the ADP employment index reported expansion: +201K vs +217K. The market gapped up at the opening to SPX 1325. The SPX had closed at 1319 yesterday. By 10:00 the SPX reached 1328, a new rally high, and then pulled back a bit. Also at 10:00 the FED released the following: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/other/20110330a.htm. The SPX pulled back to 1324 by 10:30 and then started to rally again. Around 1:00 the SPX hit 1332 then another pullback followed. At 2:00 the FED issued the following: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20110330a.htm. The pullback continued into a SPX 1328 close.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.60%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.60%. Bonds gained 13 ticks, Crude slipped 50 cents, Gold added $4.00, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX remains at 1313 and then 1303, with resistance at 1363 and then 1372. Short term momentum hit extremely overbought today with a slight negative divergence. Tomorrow, weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, then Chicago PMI and Factory orders at 10:00. Also, there is a speech by FED governor Tarullo at 12:45 in N.C.
The market gapped up at the open today, it’s fourth gap up opening since the SPX 1249 low. The rally from yesterday’s early SPX 1305 low continued into this afternoon when the SPX hit 1332. SPX 1332, btw, was the level of the double top formed in early March before it declined to 1249. We had noted 1332 as the first level of resistance after the 1313 pivot, and before the 1344 high and the 1363 pivot. With a slight short term negative divergence at today’s high this may be a good area for the end of Intermediate wave one. Overall, this rally looks more and more like a new uptrend. It has certainly been impulsing higher, the NYAD has already made new highs in market breadth, and a couple of SPX sectors are in confirmed uptrends. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend likely bottomed
LONG TERM: bull market
CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987
ouch!
?
Hey Lee, how r u? U know that song title is a really funny commentary on this market…& sorry I was actually off topic b/c I was referring to Jimi’s song. “ouch”was just my “short” answer and what came to my mind after I had read the lyrics. If you want I can give you the “long” explanation… you know I can be rather lengthy, though
Tony, how do you see oil playing out with this market? Still hitting 110 then correcting?
Also, can this market rally with continuing rising crude prices?
Yes, Crude still uptrending. Yes, feel the threshold for energy prices damaging the bull market is close to the previous high.
so up until $150ish we can expect the market to rally?
Yes, that’s the way it looks at the moment. $111 is current uptrend resistance.
or $110?
Sorry still confused Tony, having brain farts today lol.
So $111 will provide uptrend resistence to the stock markets correct?
$111 is uptrend resistnace for Crude. Stock market should take off after Crude makes its uptrend high.
ok thats what i originally thought just wanted to confirm lol.
Is $111 your long term uptrend target? Meaning you don’t see crude going any higher say $150ish?
And if it does go higher what are the ramifications for the market? Can it still push higher along with crude or will it possibly japordize the bull market?
$111 is uptrend resistance.
$150 should present problems for the stock market $175 is our long term target for Crude.
if we take out 1329.73 this works as an impulse off the low today.
ESM is tired IMHO
” Calls w likely change nxt 90 mins, but early call from CBOT – corn up 20-30, beans up 50-70, wheat up 5-10″
gm
Tony–Have you changed the price targets or time line from your 26 sept long range projections??? Thanks
Welcome DJT, Will update that report when we get an uptrend confirmation.
That’s just wrong! You tell them HD is coming for them! Stop me out and then limit it!
ZW went .382 back @ 745
You gotta be handy with the steal, if you know what I mean-earn your keep. http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZW&p=m5
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Looks like we’re all short. That usually works…..:roll:
curious if anyone has done wave counts on oil and BIDU..AND where people think we are headed with these…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p96197757709&a=67199593 http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BIDU&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p07243462628&a=109235971 higher … both still in uptrends
pricewise we are at R…look at momemtum though…indicators lead, price follows. I think we fill the gap and test 1317-1318 and then go up. During last uptrend once MA 34crossed abv/ 89, 34 was the main line of defense. http://screencast.com/t/9hLcffut
Tony, can you explain the alt count of the weekly CCJ. If this is correct, what type of pull back (low) would be typical? Rejected at the gap (32.xx), sure looks prime to take that 28 low out, I thought the 25-27 area would be a good initial entry. thanks
MLR, Concerned about recent events in regard to nuclear. Still viable but may be put on hold for a couple of years. Demand will then likely ease and CCJ might ease as well. The alternate count is a large ABC bear market rally. careful
thanks. I thought that is what the pattern/label depicted. Certainly another event will be devatsting, however, the end of deep water drilling was also headlines a few months ago. NatGas is certainly the best alternative. Once the the govern gets behind this source it may take off. We shall keep monioring.
Also, might add. NatGas should benefit with Nuclear on hold… especially in Japan.
Thanks Tony
back to 1291 pivot ..my guess
Lee, possibly
Love oneself, or love oneself and all others. It’s a choice. Your future depends on it. Time is short. Make the choice!
Hi Tony, it looks minor w5 ended today…I2 should be unfolding….1284 looks an important support…1291 pivot is right at 50%…I guess I got the target for I2 !!… what do you think ?
sorry MGD
I didn’t see your post before I posted my epic” back to 1291 pivot” LOL
Well it has to happen now right ?
I guess so … but it looks too easy…have an alt ?
MGD, certainly possible
Love oneself, or love oneself and all others. It’s a choice. Your future depends on it. Time is short. Make the choice!