SHORT TERM: market rebound continues, DOW +109
Overnight the Asian markets were mixed. Europe opened higher and closed +0.45%. US index futures were slightly lower overnight and the market opened a bit lower at SPX 1282. The market had closed at SPX 1283 on friday. Within the opening minutes the market started to rally. After a bounce to 1286 and then a pullback to 1283 by 10:00 the market moved higher. The rally continued until after 2:00 when the SPX hit 1292. A pullback to SPX 1287 by 3:30 followed, then the market rallied into a 1291 close.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.75%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.25%. Bonds were up 3 ticks, Crude dropped $1.25, Gold slid $6.00, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX remains at 1261 and then 1240, with resistance at 1291 and then 1303. Short term momentum hit slightly overbought at today’s highs after ending at neutral on friday. Tomorrow the FED’s FOMC two day meeting begins. At 9:00 Case-Shiller reports its monthly update on housing prices. Then at 10:00 Consumer confidence and the FHFA housing index is released.
The DOW continued to make new uptrend highs today as it closes in on 12,000. The upside momentum in this international index is supporting the other three major indices in the US. As a result the SPX/NDX/NAZ all had good days. Yet they are still below their recent uptrend highs. This week’s FOMC meeting, scheduled to end on wednesday with a 2:00 statement, is often a market mover. If the market is lower tomorrow we could have possibly seen the high in the DOW today. For now, the short term OEW charts are positive with support around SPX 1285 as the market bumps into resistance at the OEW 1291 pivot. The overhead resistance of the fibonacci cluster (SPX 1289-1306) and the OEW pivots (1291, 1303 and 1313) remains. This could be a pivotal week for the major indices. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend may have topped at SPX 1296
LONG TERM: bull market