SHORT TERM: SPX completes full downtrend retracement, DOW +45
Overnight the Asian markets were mostly higher. Europe opened lower and closed -0.30%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 Jobless claims were reported flat: 462K v 468K, and the Trade deficit improved slightly: -$37.3 bln v -$39.9 bln. The market opened lower at SPX 1143, and continued lower until 10:00 when it hit 1139. After nearing oversold on short term momentum the market started to rally. By 11:00 the SPX hit 1146. At 12:00 the FED released the Flow of funds report: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/Current/. A pullback continued to 1142 by 12:30 and then the market turned higher again. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1150, fully retracing the entire Jan/Feb 1150-1045 downtrend. Some buying after the close ended the session at SPX 1150.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.35%. Bonds slipped 5 ticks, Crude added 15 cents, Gold gained $1.00, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX remains at 1133 and then 1107, with resistance at 1168 and then 1179. Short term momentum neared oversold this morning, and then moved higher for the rest of the day. Tomorrow, Retail sales at 8:30, then Consumer sentiment and Business inventories at 10:00.
Late this morning the DOW looked like it had completed Minor wave 3 and we updated the DOW 60min chart. Yet heading into the afternoon neither the SPX nor NDX would confirm the activity in the DOW. Then in the last hour the market spiked higher and ended the day with a full retracement of the previous downtrend. Based upon OEW we now have five waves up from the Mar 09 low: Jun09 SPX 956, July09 SPX 869, Jan10 SPX 1150, Feb10 SPX 1045, and Mar10 SPX 1150 thus far. Since the two corrections, July09 and Feb09, did not alternate. We will be shifting the SPX count to match the DOW which has been the preferred count for a few weeks. Now the SPX/DOW will both display a bullish count without alternation between corrections. And, the NDX/NAZ will continue to display their bullish counts with alternation. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend new high SPX 1150
LONG TERM: bear/bull inflection point resolved in favor of the bulls.
Thanks Tony,But my doubt isn\’t about the alternation rule and the bullish counts, wish I understand perfectly. My doubt is about the Zig Zag from the march lows.I noted that the second leg of the uptrend – from july, the wave c of B on the "old" bearish count – could be underway yet.The SPX 1050 top in jan would be a wave 3 of c, and now the fifth wave of c is underway to finish the bear market rally.Curiously the alternation rule fit in this bearish count. The corretions are waves of different degrees – i.e., wave major b and wave 4 of major c.I\’m afraid that the market have now rallied in five waves from july, only to finish the bear market rally a-b-c, a B wave from march 09.Please take a closer look at this count:http://img96.imageshack.us/img96/1017/38240138.gifRegards
Hi Franco,answered your question in the blog.
Hi X,Market has refused to comply thus far.
Hi John,Without alternation between the two corrections that\’s the only way I can count it.
Maybe not.
Here comes the last half hour blood bath.
wuss
I can\’t, I pulled a muscle in the gym on the other day.
if we all push at the same time…………..
A W is a W…I think like the Cubs fans.
I3 thats an old post from this morning..
Nice Lee!
sorry guys had a winning trade in es…been a while :/ anybody notice the high in ESH after the # @1059.50 ?Thats what that was ? So AH does count eh????
I need one too!
I\’m a symmetry freak and completely missed that. perfect time and price. At least it was only 120 points >8-I Maybe time for a break.
HD, it sure aint easy. : (
Painful stupidity.http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4002/4427148429_98bcc66a60_o.png
Haa It just bounces off them ! I\’m just a guppy in this pond !watch the intra day fibs !
Go all in, Lee, ya big whale! Stab someone in the eye with a pencil, steal their book, and sell all their holdings with their card!
Question:Who do you have to $$$$ to get some volatility?
Tony, I appreciate your work. I\’m troubled with your SPX count. You can count it that way. No rules are broken. On the other hand, I can\’t help but feel that we\’re drifting further and further away from "the right look." It\’s a subjective term, I realize. Nonetheless, when I don\’t see it, I don\’t see it — based on years & years of counting.
10,546.73my call
amos, GL with your call..My DJIA Call: 10617.43
gls wrote:"I still feel the move off this morning\’s high was 5 waves."It was. On the NDX it might be wave "c" of a flat. Not so sure about $SPX.
the fever is back
gl guys
I am 90 points lower on my call.
Call The Close 10,612.54 SP 500 1150.51This game is very tough… I understand If you win the car.. rules states You can\’t drive it out of the lobby area. The car must stay in the lobby.
I still feel the move off this morning\’s high was 5 waves. So we are either in "b" or "ii". On the 1 and 5 minute charts.
back to .50 on the day(pit) in esm
Thanks, Igor. Best I can hope for near term is that triangle is a "b" so "c" down would come. Then I can exit.
LOL
Lee: I hope I give not too much details this time
Now I understand why you like to go to Church Amos !
Thanks Igor
The same pattern on the SPX.
A contracting triangle is forming on 5 min NDX chart all this time today. Draw boundaries and wait for the break out.
Well, that move wasn\’t a "i" down.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article17204.html gold/euro couple weeks ago no excuses.
AB: I don\’t know what I favor longer term. Tony\’s scenario may be the one. And probably is.I just can\’t get a 3-3-5 out of my head ( from the Jan high). With the 5 yet to come. This means that bigger "iv" isn\’t over.
That 15 minute move down awhile ago is the key near term. It was a "c" down or it was a "i" down of something. We wait.
gls: concur. I like an EDT from the triangle breakout in early Feb for complete the 5/e/whateverthef*cktherallyhasbeen since March
You could say I love it but I apparently like disfunctional relationships…Underwhelming in any case so far today. Think there\’s any money managers that still need to load up long before the weekend in the Hamptons?
If we start heading down vey soon, it should be 3 of 3 from the high today in small timeframes of course.
If this small decline was "c" of "b" I am extremely disappointed. Should know soon if we start heading back up.
The long bond is taking off, yields dropping.
http://www.marketwatch.com/video/asset/gold-bulls-curious-excuse-2010-03-12/F6AB9875-09EA-4ABF-A8F7-748C33989943
CL has been rocking that\’s for sure.u should give cl a try gls
OIl sure headed lower here. Gold, silver headed down. Money going into equities?
.50 % 1146.50 in esm held so far…
Not sure how much retrace we will get. Could be flatish and painful. 112x-114x, pretty much in the 1133 pivot is \’expectation\’.
This should be part of a corrective wave 4 from 1044 by the primary count.
KO ..1 minute chart..5 wave down… Capturing $.10 per share on the bounce.. KO does well by history between March to June..sales increase as the weather gets better..Plus, Spring Break… Coke is second choice over beerGood day trading stock
Lee EXwrote: gls,Any count on the USD? DX?I just have wrong ones.
U have the fever dude
Lee: I just took two Ibuproven.
ok Im posting like a meth head.later guys
gls,Any count on the USD? DX?
The NDX mah have had five waves down also on the one minute . The "v" was an ED. So could go above 1923 here on this rebound.
I see a green 3 on Tonys 60 minute…
U deserve a day off Pepe !
gls,U have the fever dude
I\’m neutral today , dont know what to do , I\’ll use my time sending my curriculum to Tiger to get that caddy job !
make that low to high
It does look like one could short the NDX with a stop right above 1923 ( cash).
Five minute charts on different indeex are not showing the same pattern today. NDX, COMP, and RUT show declines immediately.SPX and INDU made another high after the open. Rut shows five waves down from the opening. NDX says it is possibile it is in a "iv" yet. Small timeframes from this morning. I hear sirens in thebackground here, somebody coming to arrest me if I go short more I suppose.
.382 back in ESM from pit high to low @1145.25
It was partying like it was 1999 !!
Lee, Heard a crazy stat that this was only the 2nd time since the futures inception that they\’ve pushed straight up that long. Probabilities went against us.
H DI\’ve had a rough couple of weeks . But that was then
G1 Lee. I had a small slump buster too. Still bleeding though. That HO went 59.50? wow.
Lee, feel free to make money.
Fibtastic H D !
sorry guys had a winning trade in es…been a while :/ anybody notice the high in ESH after the # @1059.50 ?
Thx for the gap up guys. Hate waisting chickens. <1139 key reversal level. Otherwise tony\’s 4. Morning Lee. 41.75 = 1.618.
Still operating under the hypothesis that this uptrend has been a wave 4 & needed to take out that 1150 high to complete the wave. Keeping tight stop on the new short, however. Probably will close if SPX trades above 1161
so quiet here hmmmmmm…Ive got money to make ! Cmon who\’s with me ?
I shorted still more NVDA at $17.35. Is anyone fading this top?
btw, I put on a new short at the open this morning……
According to my trading platform, there was a small gap left unfilled on SPX on the drop at the open on the day following the SPX 1150 high. After the open, the SPX traded back towards filling the gap but didn\’t fill it. Yesterday\’s late afternoon action didn\’t quite fill it; this morning\’s did.
Mich 72,5 vs 74,6 expected
NDX did close the open Gap ,not SPX , BKX its starting to get a little overbought and I think theres a resistance level near 51.50 or something like that , financials and Technology leading all of this so far !
Mich at 10 , lets see if they win the battle here !
Plus you\’ve got 3 unfilled gaps below this level left during this uptrend. caution for all bulls.
filled the gap left when SPX peaked at 1150
Not so bad the Retail Sales , nothing changed !
GL today guys
Hi Tony,Woud you please comment this alternate count? I just found that, quite bearish. The Dow could be in a fifth wave (5 of c of B) now:http://img202.imageshack.us/img202/8643/16177847.gif
Elliott Wave Forecast For 3.12.10http://Elliottwave.info/blog2
Thanks Tony and David!
have posted an update for the spx for those interested… http://www.tradeyourwayout.com/2010/03/spx-60min-chart-update-are-we-there-yet.htmlare the bears on holiday watching porn from 恭安? come on… snap out of it!
Thanks Tony GggD
I\’m sure those are Asian porn sites, probably under age. Someone delete them.
Hi Tony, I was following your intra-day count. I wonder if we completed 3 with the final push at the end or tomorrow AM. A pull back here would have all the double top callers sceaming at the top of thier lungs. Then perhaps, a shallow 4. I would guess a 20-35 pt pullback would be it since the MO has been shallow pullbacks, perhaps, to the 113x pivot area. If/when the 1150area is captured for a few days, it may not be lost until the rally is complete. Also, nat gas trying to hold the 4.4x area. It needs to make a stand here. Thanks.
Earnings coming out FRiday on (ARNA) ..anyone following this Boitech stock? They have few drugs waiting for FDA approval I hear.. Interesting weekly and Daily chart pattern… ADX/DI + ect…