SHORT TERM: market continues in narrow range, DOW -2
Overnight all the Asian markets were higher. Europe opened higher and closed +0.40%. US index futures were higher overnight and at 9:00 Case-Shiller reported housing prices flat: +0.0% v +0.8%. The market opened slightly higher moving back to the uptrend high at SPX 1130. After a pullback to SPX 1128 by 10:00 Consumer confidence was reported at 52.9 v 50.6. Another rally attempt to new highs ended again at SPX 1130 and then the market pulled back. By 12:30 the SPX had dropped only four points to 1126, and then drifted higher before closing at the low. Starting last tuesday Dec 22nd the entire daily range as been 6 SPX points or less. It has been a very quiet trading holiday season. For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.20%. Bonds were up 5 ticks, Crude lost 5 cents, Gold was $8.00 lower, and the USD was higher. Support for the SPX remains at 1107 and then 1090, with resistance at 1133 and then 1168. Short term momentum was slightly overbought and then stayed around neutral for the rest of the day. Tomorrow the Chicago PMI will be reported at 9:45.
The wave three rally may have ended with today’s retest of the SPX 1130. There are negative RSI divergences on the short term charts. Should the SPX decline below yesterday’s 1124 low, then that is likely the scenario. Best to your trading and happy holidays!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bear market rally
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Hi Tony,Yes I can see that today is probably indeed a 4th. I did not see a count on this chart. I like my supercycle version 5th wave. A rise above 135 would fit nicely with your count. Let\’s say my version is correct, then IBM would start down in a "A" wave off the top?Thanks for the response, I appreciate it greatly.Roger
Hi Roger,Had been asked about IBM some time this year.Think you;ll find this count a bit more colorful:http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IBM&p=M&b=1&g=0&id=p14512270316&a=180779072
Hi X,Yes that was a typo …
Hi Roger,Expecting five waves up from SPX 1086.Yesterday\’s 1130 was only the third of those five.
TJ: The way Tony has it counted it is logical for the advance to stop where he has it. For more details, I would ask him.
My bad. I just checked my model and I see that now. Wave 1 is shorter than wave 3. So to get into the 1160s wave 5 will have to exceed wave 3.
TJ: Yes that wave could be "i" of 3. Nobody knows for sure.
Robert: Tony\’s 3 is longer than the length of wave 1. So this means 5 can be as long as it wants.
I commented yesterday that I was hard pressed to see how we could get into the 1160s if we had seen the top of wave 3, unless there was a really shallow wave 4 pullback. Assuming today\’s SPX low is the bottom of wave 4 and wave 5 = 0.01 point less than wave 3, that gets us to 1158.43.
TJ Writes: Tony updated the SPX 60 min to reflect a W3 completed @ 1130. I agree a wave was completed @ 1130 but personally I would label it W1 of W3. Call it a gut feeling based on the relationship in size to the preceeding W1 & W2 and the size of subdivisions within the now completed wave. Any feed back??
NASDAQ 10 Day Charthttp://Elliottwave.info
Forget what I just posted. That can\’t be.
Lee: I just thought of something but have no way of it being gospel. If the SPX is forming a contracting triangle on the way down, then maybe the ES is forming an expanding triangle on the way down.This really should be a low but something feels wrong. Maybe another low in 3 and 1/2 days from here. I am thinking too much perhaps.
Lee: The Es is forming a triangle on the move off last night\’s low. The SPX is forming a triangle on the move down.Could this be correct?When in doubt, stay out.
Roger, thanks for the update. The way I see it, is that the whole move since Oct ist still corrective and overlapping. Not getting involved here.
Hey gls,not nonsense according to the charts !
They\’ve evacuated the Nasdaq for some reason http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/ndaq
Cobalt,That small "c" wave popped up this morning in GS. Wouldn\’t suprise me if this is a convoluted top here,next week should be down.Roger
Wrong on that time frame. Market has to be in a corrective state. Going to have to wait until the daily slow stochs have truned back positive.Sorry to post nonsense this morning. I still think those two points (ES and SPX) have to be recovered before another trend up occurs.
Marcio (no name). I checked again the SPX daily chart and if you draw the downtrend line in the logarithm scale the prices have not reached yet this line and your assesment is correct, though it is too early to predict that we will go for a strong correction. Looking at the Dow Jones we still have a way up to run.
10:0 to 10:15 hopefuly makes the low of the day. Could try and go long ES there but I\’m not up to it. Once you have a good trade with something like that, it may be best not to get too cocky.If the SPX cash can recover 1126.00 on a 15 minute close, this market may be on its way.
This is the next 3 1/2 day low. Maybe it occured overnight. Ever since the ES took out 11220 it has not had a 30 minute close back above that figure. I don\’t think I would trust the market here until that number is recovered. Just my opinion.
No name. call you Marcio as this is the name that appears on your link name. Makiori is correct. The SP500 downtrend line was broken on Nov16th and prices are running above this trend line right now. On the DJ though, the downtrend line was not touched yet and is right now at 10654 while prices are below at the 10545. We still have a way up to go and I believe that we will have a correction after prices will test this downtrend line in the Dow Jones. Hope this clarifies your assesment.
No name, I really think we must be looking at different charts, even on the weekly chart the s&p has broken that trend line 5 weeks ago. I am not saying that is going up, just saying that on my charts I can\’t see what you see.
MAKIORII am the "No name"……if appear other name is because this program of the blog change my nickname…anyway…..lets go……….what i see is that the down trendline of the DOW JONES was brokem in last 3 days in the diary chart……oh ! came on !!! if we see the weekly chart we can go until the last day of the week dont you ?? so, the close to this down trendine of the weekly chart can keep !!…………………But the down trendline of the SPX to me still there ! to me still hasnt broken ! yesterday was touched !!!!! thats what i see !!! ………………….sorry may bad english….im from brazil……………
No name wrote:"the trend line from 1576 was touched today" …"from oct 2007".I see no trend line coming from 1576 to yesterday high.A down trendline has a negative slope and connects at least two high points on a chart and if you take the 11th of oct 2007 and the 19th of May 2008 that trend line was broken on a close basis on NOV 16th 2009.Am I looking at the wrong chart?
Don, thanks.
good discussion of pattern variants today by Handley. sounds generally in conformance with Tony\’s scenario. most probable is top of the up leg by mid January. tops: NDX 1920-1930; DJI 10900-11000; SPX 1160-1175http://www.dcradio700.com/schedule.html
Its over today ! The finish line to SPX ! The trendline from 1576 was touched today ! we are going to a strong correction ! without chance to go to the 1168………..look the trendline from 1576 oct 2007 !!!!
Cobalt I would get nervous if we went above 182-3, never say never, I learned the hard way.p.s. your\’e welcomeRoger
Roger, you\’re an angel. Thank you
. So your pattern would be negated if 195 is breached to the upside…I guess? Interesting because on my weekly you can see a possbl. inverted H+S which would kick in when 190 is breached. I guess it depends on whether or not you believe in creative finance…..Anyway, if something makes sense on the chart, the reality doesn\’t matter, I guess. Makes trading easier that way.
Hey Roger, can you do just one more chart, please (GS)? Apparently, in the spirit of mutual admiration, JP Morgan upgraded them today (price target 240). I\’d like to see how we get there. Ha Ha. This is getting funny..
But wait, there is more….all this is going to be funded by…..transaction tax …to be paid by the little guy, the daytrader….You are right Roger, they are dumb*****.
Merkin a real beaut, interesting that Wall street just loves these crooks. GMAC is a black hole for the taxpayer,remember all the ads for the cheap mortgages. These guys were right there with Mozillo and countrywide.Roger
The 64 dollar question is the up coming treasury auctions and if they stink. The USD dollar is gapping up,so somethings in the air.If the futures tank tonight, the rest of the week should be exciting.Roger
Imike, and there are some other interesting details like this one http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/10/business/10gmac.html?_r=1
GMAC is run and owned by Cerberus capital. (also known as Cryforus Capital)
Gmac just got billions more from our buddy tim. So lets get this straight, fre fnm and gmac mortgage books are crumbling . But were in a mini boom. Zombies books F but the mark to myth big banks are just fine?The enraging fact is gmac is a hedge fund, chaired by Dumyas first treasury sec Snow and includes Dan Quayle. Im sure that timmy is bailing out there redemptions. BOs one term will be caused by Timmy. by by BO.
Elliott Wave Forecast For 12.30.09http://Elliottwave.info
Visa (V) Closed at $88.02 Up + $1.26 on the day over 1.45% I most likely will day trade Visa again on wednesday. Looking for pullback with Visa in the morning. Good luck trading… God bless
I am hard pressed to believe that we have seen the top of wave 3. If so, the SPX will be hard pressed to get into the 1160s unltess there is a minuscule wave 4 pullback. Could it not be more likely that we are in 4 of 3 now or even 2 of 3 for that matter.I believe wave 3 started at 1093.88. I don\’t think there has been any pullback beyond say 4 points along the way.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a4oPPj5mh100&pos=14buuffys all in bet includes throwing workers under bus………….
Evening Star Doji\’s went in today on $SPX & $COMP. $DJI put in reversal candle on daily. Expecting pullback in coming days.
Tony, minor typo I believe 1024 s/b 1124 for completion of small (iii). Just want to clerify since many follow your thoughts,..including me. Thanks.
Hi Tony,When you say the 3 wave raaly may have ended with a test of 1130,do you mean that the whole rally from the March low could have concluded today?Thanks,Roger