SHORT TERM: December starts off on a positive note, DOW +127
Overnight all the Asian markets were higher. Japan called for an emergency economic policy meeting, and Australia raised their base rate 0.25% to 3.75%. Europe opened higher and closed +2.50%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at the open the market gapped higher to SPX 1103. During the opening minutes the SPX rallied to 1109 before pulling back to 1104. At 10:00 ISM manufacturing was reported lower: +53.6% v 55.7%, Construction spending improved: 0.0% v -1.6%, and Pending home sales posted its ninth monthly gain: +3.7% v +6.0%. The market resumed its rally shortly thereafter and hit SPX 1112 by 1:30. The market then drifted lower for the rest of the day, hitting 1107 at 3:30, and closing at 1109. For the day the SPX/DOW were +1.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.30%. Bonds lost 12 ticks, Crude added 85 cents, Gold rallied $19.00, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX ratchets up to 1107 and then 1090, with resistance at 1133 and then 1168. Short term momentum was rising late yesterday and reached overbought today. Tomorrow, the ADP index at 8:15 and then the Beige book at 2:00.
This two day short term rally has carried the DOW to 10,501 and the SPX near the previous high at 1114. This sideways choppy action in the SPX continues to appear similar to the choppy sideways action at the last medium term top in June. As a result we have modified the short term hourly count to display a potential fifth wave, short term rally ending, currently underway. Several US sectors continue to be in confirmed downtrends: KBE, KRE, R2K, SOX, XLE, and XLF. Also, negative divergences continue on nearly all timeframes and the OEW 1107 pivot remains formidable. Again a breakout above this pivot would suggest higher prices, and a break down below the 1090 pivot, lower prices. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bear market rally
15 pips are pretty nice…I think it trades/moves better the es..
i\’m not really loving being locked in a 15pips range for 6 hours but i see some potential here
Hi Jeff,The move from 2002-2007 in the US was clearly an impulse wave.It was also an impulse wave in many parts of the world except Europe.
High tomorrow , skip trade
3BEPb, having fun with euro?? : )
remaining full short overnight with options and small outright (with stop on the outright at entry level spz9)have a nice evening guys
Looks good from here HD.
G1 Wiggin. 1115-1105A C=A closes gap. Just saying.
Things are not clear , flat
wig, it a joke as moon cycles were discused in stu days ago…….ecb rate blah in morning. could ratel fx.
I am short Tiger, long his wife
5 minute timeframe $RUT ad $SPX seem to now hitting resistence at what was once support… 1107 and 596 … apple very weak.. I\’m thinking we are going lower…. Golfer Tiger Woods got caught… cheating on his wife…divorce soon…big bucks
Covered short entered long 100%
stu said moon beams!What does that mean?
xman, stu said moon beams!closed my stinky bank trade. will reapply soon.Gl guys,
xTrader llook on Gold, it moves already independent from the dollar. Its a question of time for the stock market
long 6E 1.5041. super tight stop
I am with Tony all the way, waiting for the "C" wave down. But if the stock market is tied to the dollar, does anyone here know how the market can possibly go down when the Fed Reserve will continue to devalue the dollar for the next 2 years? They have no choice but to pay down the massive debt with worthless dollars. Can Elliot Wave find a way or are we changing history ?? For those that know alot more about it than me…..at what point will the dollar separate from the stock market? I am just trying to find justification in a move down. As Curley said " I tried to think but nothings happening".
Baby steps….Ur gonna do well my friend..Best of luck ! stay humble and don\’t be afraid to get paid..who\’s buying here?
i\’m taking baby steps lee. 6E is scary as hell but i think ultimately FX is where its at because it seems equities just react to FX moves 90% and 10% something else.
everything so good but; fed saidMost Districts reported some pickup in home sales, though prices were generally said to be flat or declining modestly; residential construction was characterized as weak, but some Districts did note some pickup in activity. Commercial real estate markets and construction activity were depicted as very weak and, in many cases, deteriorating. Financial institutions generally reported steady to weaker loan demand, continued tight credit standards, and steady or deteriorating loan quality.delusion new d word "deterioration"
watch this oil close then 3BEPb…How\’s it going with 6E generally? Glad to see u guys trade different products..That aapl trade I posted was a joke big bear..cmon u knew that
i\’m trading the euro and watching nasdaq at the same time.. tick for tick its the same thing
Out this morning and missed TZA at 11.25. Just put in order at 11.50 hoping the market has a bounce into the close. Watch today not follow the usual routine.
Potential EDT AMZN. W5 cannot exceed price of W3. Shopping puts.
Be carefull eg, this month testy.
Waiting for new Intraday Lows to close my Shorts
50% short stop today\’s high
Its goig to take (time) to get retest of lower levels…. Profitable strategy … keep tight stops
Cindy you wonderful , after some years I just realized today that for me to buy must be a seller there or vice-versa ! after all I\’m not so dumb ! Now I\’m proud of me ! LOL
my mall budie says there in panic mode. Im in fl so what can i say. but he said next month a bunch of stuff gona close in there, our other mall is bankrupt. the feb jobs look at jan will be devasting. Mys stinky bank thingy workin. Earnings are down 20 percent qtr over qtr. expect exact same or worse here. yet 80 percent of co\’s will win at "beat the # game" so cute that game! while my month wasnt 49 percent i did enjoy shorting some beat the # bs. ppt not in there. amzn pcln were nice qs (their the mcd in there space). other than that blah.Btw my mall buddie sold his house and is moving away to OK. Says there closing the foot locker after dec. B$G money printing not reaching shoe junkys.
What! I get eff\’d out of my 1111 short and come back to this. I took 1 for the team there. Well I got my starbucks and if we go into Tony\’s MAs on the 60 min oversold there\’s a scalp long IMO. GL
this a buy here guys?
wow ..we were almost at 99% bullish this morn here…
hmmmm …. AAPL
cindy
imike – That is huge, considering last year sucked. Wonder how Q4 earnings YOY will lookPivot gone!
I guess there is just an equal amount of buyers and sellers again. LOL! Started wondering if they are ever going to let this market fall or are they just going to keep holding it up forever?Dollar looks like it is wanting to break to the upside. IMHO
Gallop sugest a 25 percent decline in retail sales YOY. So the fiction continues, delusion.http://www.gallup.com/poll/124508/Gallup-Economic-Weekly-Thanksgiving-Week-Disappoints.aspx
Stephen, my last position was buy, but will skip this trade. Please readI have been waiting for short entry since then, haven found one!So I am waiting!
somebody here wrote that Beige book should be telling. Well, I rather wait for NFP. probably sucking in shorts bit by bit. everywhere you read, blogger says non-confirmation on all indicators. This rally is going to be a classic teaching material on Technical Analysis.Einstein theory of relativity applies, when light pass by objects of heavy mass like Bernanke, light bends, the truth bends.Newton law says the bigger the action, the greater the reaction. All things go up must come down.
This maket its starting to go anywhere ,who bought dont sell, but the buyers dont look so many at this level ! tricky market right now !
$RUT 596 testing is it just short covering? Or is there Committment by the Bulls… very important level in my opinion
Expecting TZA to make a new low, not thinking 11.25 is the Low….
Bulls are starting to Focus on objective… $RUT 30 minute time frame.. the Bulls better hold today 60 minute gains.. Clarity is becoming better….
I\’m guessing a close below 1107 would reconfirm the pivot – at least for now. Lots of counts still on the table including a possible top.
well hello pivot..
Still waiting , couple more hours ! Bitch book could be telling!
Tony Wrote:As a result we have modified the short term hourly count to display a potential fifth wave, short term rally ending, currently underway. So SPX and NAS make new highs …. it can\’t be that easy can it?Nice trade Makiori!
I think it was u Bud
Budwrote:You guys, must have waken-up the $
That\’s awesome Ive lived here all my life and I\’m still finding great places to eat..Oil \’s a drag on equities after the # it seems eh? watch oil
11-23-09 Bulls Surged ahead to 600 levels $RUT… 30 minute time frame… only to loose all gains over the next hours… This surg for first 60 minute is loosing steam… lets see If history repeats itself
You guys, must have waken-up the $
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NpLM393Uj0oI can\’t trade it. I was bullish Friday and bearish Monday. Just dumb. 0-3 taking a TO. Unless corn can get some legs at 410. GL all.
Lee I didn\’t see your question last night about me being in town. Part of my family lives in Chicago so I visit once or twice a year this is why I am familiar with good places….
lee check T chart. Not in here but watching. Got a stinky -bank and some +gld chips. Only money printing bs play.One day zsl dzz gets to option price? The bank is the bank i bank at.Im stumped, so trade like its 2008 dec.
Victory has to go to the Bulls Army…. 10,500 level they entered it… can they get close above 10,500? $RUT looks like it going to get some backtesting now… lets see If their new support levels hold. More money = Success… Kinda liken to President Obama New war strategy… more troops to maintain regions that they have entered and won..First hour looks good for Bulls…. this might be part Santa Claus rally?
good luck everyone..
Thanks Makiori..
any thought on oil guys?
Randy – do not trust me, but my count just finished a minor/minute 4.
Does anyone know the wave count for the SPX within wave v? Did we just finish iii?
RUT breaking above 600, leads to 610. fyi
The 1107 pivot got stretched about as far as it can go. Any more and 1133 is in play.
TZA, coming off the 10/19 pivot they can take it alot lower…(10.07-9.85).
Full short @ 1114 based on timing not on price
I understand Federal reserve has Target price of 1598 for $SPX …. Fiat Money system they can print dollars to no end… strong military complex = Success…. I see the surg! by the Bulls is winning…. 30 minute time frame $RUT they are over 596 levels… lets ee how high they march……
TZA…looks like 10.72 is the rough PO….
good Q randy.
Still waiting, NASDAQ had fake sell and then buy yesterday, so being careful!
imike,not quite verbatum…no mention of victory! If we don\’t plan on winning, why are we there?
Federal reserve members are running America economy, Our goverment sells the whole economy to these bankers…. Their Strategy in markets are to surg ahead…. then they don\’t stick around for very long… Killing the Dollar … and killing our troops…. Human life means nothing in these last days…same with the Dollar…. it means nothing to these bankers…. its all a big game…. Rich vs Poor…. Average human being today really can\’t figure the world out.. they have gotten things to confusing…
TZA has 11.42, or 10.74….you feel lucky?
He did read Bush\’s iraq speech wig. verbatum ..LOL
The Bulls Army Strategy seems to be open the market with a surg…. $RUT Hourly time frame… 595 level… Kinda like to President Obama New War Strategy he laid out last night… troop surg… then Bear Army regroups and attacks….
Doesn\’t the mkt always rally after Bush gives a war speech?
financials sector are weak… $RUT Hourly 595 seems to be strong resistence … Upper channel line from 650.44 high to 601.36 high… Lets watch the reaction RSI is still under 66.66% on hourly readings….
Zombie banks again not playing.Ted ya buying here.? or sellin?
Bayes Theory $SPX has tried 8 times to break the 1112 upper resistence levels…. 8 is matching number… Factor lacking is Volume… Given the Bayes theory keeping tight stop loss with your short trade should keep your risk within manageble range. I just can\’t vision with indicators suggesting this is just simple backtesting.. which will fail again…. Bayes Rule…
$USD is currently rising…….. Giving more odds of market sell off…
Same with Dow from 9678.95 Low 21 trading days ago to todays high of 10,501.28 back test of channel line…
$SPX draw a channel line from 1029.38 Low 21 trading ago, to 15th trading day low of 1112.28….. today prices went up right to the channel line and stopped…. You got a reaction….when prices hit that line… from 1029.38 low to todays high of 1112.28 is exactly 21 trading days……. So odds now favor we get reaction down…..
Market is currently in backtest mode… Any type of short squeez to 1125 area will be short lived with powerful thrust back down.. So when making your bearish stance trade… keep in mind its only going to be short lived..odds to me is to the downside…
1-day overly bullish breadth, volume and sentiment suggest a down-to-flat day Wednesday. If any pullback or consolidation is contained (especially if above 1099), I expect another high Thu/Fri. There are several Fibs at 1121-1126 with another at 1136 and 1168 near Tony\’s pivots, and my gut says to expect 1121+ now. However, I expect Russell, XLF,XLE, BKX and Nikkei to stay below their 2009 highs and pretty much everybody is calling for 1121+ again. A final wave 4-5 combo to 1116ish where C=A*.382 for the final leg of a double ZZ or broadening top is possible. I will remain flat for now waiting for a sign. Good luck.
Steven, If I must thank the Fed, GS and the cronies for my new work contract, I must give them extra thanks for practically forcing my previous 10-year employer to ship 1/3 of its jobs to India and Costa Rica with my mentoring.
I\’m not either bearish or bullish..all I want to be is right, and that\’s it…the more right i am, the more money i make trading, and thats the way I think it should be for all traders…short when there\’s a downtrend, long when there\’s an uptrend
Thanks Ted. The recent low being 1083 doesn\’t work on a monthly chart so I\’m still lost. No worries. I know you see it clearly in your perspective. You\’re just not spelling it out clearly for morons like me. ha …. A visual chart says so much more. I think what you\’re looking at as 1 is a 3 waver, not impulsive, but I\’d like to see it and learn something. Stop by intraday. We\’re all here and posting entries- good or bad.
The 11/30 Low – 1083 – now is seen as a W4 low….thus heading up to new highs, and the12/18-20 looks like the best time frame for a high, and do we call it a W1 High, from 3/9/09 ?Bud
it\’s the 1 month charts from the recent low to now
Ted, I\’m curious about your count. Can you post a chart so we know what your counting as 1 and 2 (of ?). It seems a strange place for a 1-2. I would assume a C wave but I\’ve watched your videos for the last several days and it seems your on the fence also. Thanks in advance. Great site you have there.
We now have a possible broadening top in both the Dow and SPX. If it completes a 5 wave decline below the previous low last Friday we have the setup. A 66 pct retracent rally would be the warning of a serious decline ahead. Another warning is AAPL and AMZN hit the top targets today and look to be doing a impulse of the top.I think the biggest question now is what is going to take the lead down? The market or the USD, top in equities bottoms the dollar? Or does the dollar break to new lows. If the USD breaks 72 in a 3rd wave I really doubt if the market can say that is bullish.cheers, R.D.
Ted, I just need to know when to buy and sell, can you just post that!Cheers!
lee – you\’re so full of it…….. no way you just made 300k on a trade….
up 49% last month…yes, been trading it
$WLSH Hourly Chart…. Head & Shoulder Pattern… Head at 11,470.47… I count 8 New hourly lower low from 11,470.47 to 11,093.46… If the Head & Shoulder pattern plays out the target low is at 10,900…. $RUT Monthly Chart Pattern… with 11 year cycles… this is 3rd month… each month we are getting lower highs.. Tuesday trading is going to be very important. I just can\’t buy into the Bullish case… I don\’t see it… God bless
ted, are you trading that forecast? If so, you have the wrong blog. The bloggers here (provided they even trade) have fought the tape since march? Every pullback has been a crash,…