SHORT TERM: selling in Asia pressures market, DOW -48
Overnight al the Asian markets were lower including a 6.7% drop in China. Europe opened lower and closed -1.0%. Overnight US index futures were lower, and at the open the market gapped down to SPX 1022. It had closed at SPX 1029 on friday. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported at 50.0 v 43.4. The market continued lower until 10:00 when the SPX hit 1015. This was only a tick below last week’s SPX low. From a slight oversold condition the market rallied to 1020 by 11:00. Another pullback followed, but 1016 held this time and then the SPX vacillated around the 1018 pivot for the rest of the day. For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.65%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.05%. Bonds gained 16 ticks, Crude dropped $3.05, Gold lost $6.00, and the Euro was higher. Support for the SPX remains at 1018 and then 990, with resistance at 1041 and then 1061. Short term momentum over slightly oversold at the low and was rising to neutral heading into the close. Tomorrow, ISM and Construction spending at 10:00, then monthly Auto later in the day.
Coming off the SPX 1039 uptrend high the market pulled back 23 points into today’s low. This pullback is the second largest of the uptrend, only exceeded by the 39 point decline between Intermediate waves A and B. The OEW 1018 pivot is important, and a print at 1010 and lower would confirm a break of that support. The next OEW pivot at 990 is the more important one. A break of that pivot would indicate that this uptrend and the bear market rally are likely over. Today’s gap down was similar to the monday gap down following the SPX 956 uptrend high in June. Should the similarity continue the market should rally a few points above today’s close before making a lower daily low tomorrow. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend high at SPX 1039
LONG TERM: bear market
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Well you guys finally got some action.VIX says more VOL to come.
you just dont want that kiss Tony….Hey AA he makes the pivots !!
)
Hi Awera,The market makes the pivots, we just identify them.cheers!
S2, thanks for the possibilities.
What 3s, 5s, it was an ABC! Just fork it, babe! Parabolic ABCup in the morning, and down after! Classic!
Looks like it could be the start of something big. Hope everyone had a good day.
Slight new low near closing bell could end a 5 of 3 EDT.
Ah! That was a nice quick buck for UPRO! End of day daytrader short cover! sweet… Now on to tomorrow\’s job number from ADP…
AIGesus moving again! 20% down today! run baby AIGesus run!
Probably in 3 of 5 of 3 down. SPX is now in Tony\’s 990 pivot zone. Next bounce may only reach 998-1006 so I\’ll reload there. ADP and Productivity before the bell Wednesday.
Meeeeeeeooooooow!
Ok you mutual fund boys.SELL.Michael
Wiggin, ya keep on restocking, and wait until Christmas, nobody buys.. gee, I just hope I can get my 40 inch 1080P (use for monitor) for $250-$300 by that time!
Look at today\’s sales number, back to school sale? What sale?! Gee, poor kids…
I guess wave 3 wants to extend down a little before wave 4 up kicks in
Hrmmm…. TDAmeritrade\’s Strategy Desk has stopped updating again. Did the same thing yesterday afternoon as well.
I have wave 4 to 1010 – 1014 area….but it sure is taking its time getting there
That article on swaps posted this morning left out that there are 590+- trillion in notional value. No rules no changes in anything that got us here. If china dig renig it could banmonkey pay the counter partys ala aig? Michael
MCK: That\’s a good thought. But I also worry about the latest H&S patterns that have developed. Everyone seems to see them developing lately and they fail. Although I guess that at some point they have to start to work again! I sure hope that you\’re right.
gls: I am wondering what you\’re cycles are saying. I know that you don\’t like to talk about it too much, so any information you can share would be appreciated. Are your cycles still indicating to you the move up is not over or are they starting to indicate a possible change in trend? Thanks!
1018 would put a nice h&s on the 60 min chart…….
HD: what makes you think we\’ll go back and test 1018? I really hope you\’re right because I\’ve been bearish and I missed this whole move down (not that\’s it\’s huge, but big enough). I haven\’t traded since I got out of a bad short position a few weeks ago.
Frank – thanks for the article. I especially liked this brilliant paragraph:"Economists are calling for an inventory-driven recovery. With goods on their shelves now at low levels, businesses will have to order more in order to restock. This could turn into a virtuous cycle leading to more and more production."Keep stocking them shelves…lol
Needs to trade straight down now
1003-4 should be about it if we still have another 5 down.
LOL AA…It\’s a deal !!
are u serious H D ???
well lee… i hope not everyone lies…. we´ll mislead eachother…
prob need to backtest the 1018 pivot this week. JMO gonna treat myself to some troon. Only going to be 100 degrees today
See ya
looking how it reaches to 980-990 i will buy again, though i said no more trading for today. I am a liar, and what?AA it\’s the internet…no worries
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/recession-is-over-economists-say-2009-09-01So what\’s next? Depression?
Today has been a great day for me in a while…
Forker – HUGO has some splaining to do!
looking how it reaches to 980-990 i will buy again, though i said no more trading for today. I am a liar, and what?
i leave for a while and you tumble the spx…lol… can not leave you alone!!!
Off balance sheet acounting and banks. Sorry. Michael
Yes, Aur. If the larger SPX wave 1 down happens as I expect to 850-875, a big H&S formation is likely although I\’d expect the right shoulder to be much shorter in time and definitely not textbook catching many off-guard. The minimum H&S target would be 700, but you know my ultimate preferred target is 450ish or 300ish with 220ish or lower possible. The larger SPX 2000/2007 double top pattern and the Dow H&S with left shoulder in 2000, head in 2007 and weak right shoulder in 2009 both project to the lower of those targets. Transports and Russell 2000 etc would make much better 11-13 year H&S formations but probably all need to be measured in log or percentage terms. Get ready for the volatility again. I still want to see 990 and then 979 broken to be ultra confident though. Good luck.
Today first day ive heard gsnbc say "off balance sheet accounting" in same sentence. Wow! S2
If this wave 3 (possibly Y) extends down, w3=w1*1.6 at 989, right at Tony\’s pivot.
+D on the 5 min RSI with that last low. Nothing on the 15min
sorry, 60min RSI, MACD, MoMo
Toying with lightening up a bit here. We are at the support of two channels (8/24, 8/26, today\’s lows) and (8/7, 8/14 highs) converging. I still have decent resistance falling nicely now around 1011, though. A trade down would obviously erode nicely so I\’m torn – of course
15 min RSI, MACD, MoMo now at 7/6 rally support as well. To breach or not to breach…
S2: Depending on how long your idea takes if it takes a while (a month) it would set up a monster H&S from late July
Thx Michael
HD. Big hairy dude. That post yesterday was not a good post but a great post. With a vix on top. thanks.Michael
Has anybody noticed that bullish is not far removed from bullshi*? Worked yesterday. I want to add shorts at 1006.4-1010 on a 20dSMA backtest if I get the chance.2 more things…1. If you look at RSI on a 15min or 60min chart, you\’ll see this drop confirms SPX is in a strong 3 or C/Y. Most other indicators point to a wave 3, but I\’d say a drop below Tony\’s 990 pivot would seal the deal on this drop from 1039 being a large impulse structure.2. The 60min RSI that I follow has dropped below the level seen at SPX 979. That\’s a negative divergence, and, combined with the RSI level that I mentioned last week confirming SPX 1038/1039 was a completed impulse up from 979, usually indicates that 979 price level will be re-tested soon. CPC is not showing bearishness.
Lee, I think Tony so far has been proved right on his calls. He has an important OEW pivot a 990 +- 7 at usual. Since the path of least resistance seems to be down at least temporarily, I wouldn\’t touch the long side before we get to that area. With time we should also know if Primary B has indeed come to an end. If that is the case I will personally just trade short/flat.
Good point Lee. refocus….. I agree 1000 is psych support for the herd. I told myself the plan was to wait for the break and then move to longer timeframes, swings, positions. not sure the time is now but I\’ll be watching retracement wave structure to find a spot to put another leg in the bear suit. If this is {3} or {C} as outlined by elliot wave theory ……. GL
Thanks, S2!Lee: OK, I\’m buying – a round of MaCallan 18 on me!
"me sits back with a large popcorn" I\’ve got a 40oz :->>
so who\’s buying here? I\’m not being a dick like a few around here were lately… just a question
It did not happen the precise way I expected at all, but the daily indicator did catch a 10+ point reverse up (I didn\’t play it b/c I was worried about a wave 3 down), 1023 was overlapped and 1009 was tested. However, the rise to 1028 actually pushed RSI to a level that signaled 1039–>1014 completed a wave structure (ABC or 12345) confirmed by Dow surpassing Friday\’s pivot equivalent to SPX 1031. Nice thing for bears is the gap downs for the last 2 days were mostly filled and I expect any gap downs in the next week to be filled on the next sizeable wave 2 bounce.Now, SPX 1028–>1001=27pts which is longer than 1039–>1014=25pts, so we have the possibility wave 3 has begun or wave Y. I favor wave 3, but 984 makes Y=W*1.62 and 979 is the key pivot low eliminating most bullish counts. Plus, if wave 1=1039–>1014=25pts and impulses usually equal 2.5x wave 1, then SPX should reach 1039-(25*2.5)=977ish. So,975-985 is highly likely. Yesterday, I estimated SPX should fall to 950-965 by end of week with a Labor Day bounce IF 1039 was the top. That is still possible, but since wave 1 ended slightly shorter than I thought ( I was estimating 1010ish), so may the whole impulse. 975-985 is a better estimate now. However, one thing that does still support the lower 965 target is the 50dSMA and uptrend line from 667.Good luck.
fairly lame 4. I assume it has a c leg up to go. Shouldn\’t top 1008.5
How about sub 667?
LOL! Good call! What\’s next?! \\me sits back with a large popcorn…
Aur, I was picking up my sick daughter from school and came back to a tsunami. So, I\’ll say no. 1009 won\’t hold. LOL
This baby has legs…. SWEET!
wow guys history in the making today
Tony…WOW, you nailed this call today. You called for a possible higher high today than yesterday, followed by a new low. That is why your commentary on EW is the only one I follow. I appreciate your great work .
Sep- TIMBER
Green pukes
I like the xlf kbe action pullin down the qqqq. To the other no name fyi ? I guess i gota get a name. Michael
"Today\’s gap down was similar to the monday gap down following the SPX 956 uptrend high in June. Should the similarity continue the market should rally a few points above today\’s close before making a lower daily low tomorrow. Best to your trading!"
If this doesn\’t bust 1010 I\’ll be shocked. At least one more wave to complete a 5 afeter a small retrace, somewhere.
sweet sassy molassy
1008.13 will confirm for me the breakdown of the second half rally support we crashed through earlier.
The bears are back! Puking up good news!
I was wrong, happy, two sides to every trade
One might almost call it 3 of 3 like
That\’s a farily hefty move…
I must be crazy
Hey, no name, I\’m feeling pretty good about my short…..
S2: You still looking for a bounce at 1009?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/aug-ism-signals-end-of-us-recession-analysts-2009-09-01
pivot time….wheat is an awesome trade lately…
Now short a Brazilian shares of FYI because I\’m CRAZY EDDIE!
funky breach confirmed
let\’s get funky..
approaching the uptrend support line on the 5min for RSI, MACD, MoMo. 1022.4 (-2) is my price confirmation though we obviously need to get down and get funky below <you know where – no jinx>
Meaning…thats a good #
)
HD: That\’s what I\’m counting on. Looks like we\’ve tightened up the lines of clarity now to 1017-1030.52
I think you crazy if you short this FYI
Meaning?
1010.75 ws the low in futures MCK…
So was that C of ii in S2\’s count or something bigger? Definately a 5
should hammer that 1010 level that traders want to maintain
pivot ping pong
Hey Lee, Nice sell! Not much new.
1028.00 was 2 ticks short of .618 from yesterdays low to Fridays high… Pivot busted.. Nice scalp H D !!I did ok also:)
I\’m thinking it\’s getting time for the big whoosh…..
wheeeeee!! (I\’m short big time)
OK, here we go…..
no more trading for today,,,,,
thanks again for you r pivot points Tony, again!!!1250€!!!!whenever i see you i will kiss you!!!
How ironic is that?! I just started writing my masterpiece "Forking Parabolic ABCs"and what do we have here? A parabolic ABC! lol
http://www.scribd.com/doc/19286296
Added some BGZ @ 1028 from some fresh cash
A….99% …my gift to the world..;)
Morning H D….Whats new and exciting??