SHORT TERM: market rallies on GDP data then pulls back after FOMC, DOW+169
Overnight the Asian markets were mostly higher. Europe opened higher and closed +2.2%. US index futures were higher overnight and at 8:30 preliminary Q1 GDP was announced at -6.1% v -6.3% last quarter. This is the worse back to back showing in 60 years. Nevertheless the market gapped up at the open to SPX 860 and continued to rally. While there were small pullbacks along the way the market remained in rally mode right into the FOMC announcement at 2:15:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20090429a.htm
. Shortly after the FED statement the SPX hit 882, a new high for the uptrend. Then the market pulled back into the close hitting 868 before bouncing late. For the day the SPX/DOW were +2.15%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.90%. Bonds were down about 1/2 point, Crude rallied $1.00, Gold gained $7.00, and the Euro was higher. Support for the SPX remains at 848 and then 789, with resistance at 912 and then 935. Short term momentum was overbought at the highs. Tomorrow, the weekly Jobless claims will be announced at 8:30, along with the PCE and Consumer spending. Then the Chicago PMI at 9:45.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20090429a.htm
. Shortly after the FED statement the SPX hit 882, a new high for the uptrend. Then the market pulled back into the close hitting 868 before bouncing late. For the day the SPX/DOW were +2.15%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.90%. Bonds were down about 1/2 point, Crude rallied $1.00, Gold gained $7.00, and the Euro was higher. Support for the SPX remains at 848 and then 789, with resistance at 912 and then 935. Short term momentum was overbought at the highs. Tomorrow, the weekly Jobless claims will be announced at 8:30, along with the PCE and Consumer spending. Then the Chicago PMI at 9:45.
After the market appeared to have ended Major wave A at SPX 876 on April 17th, it sold off to SPX 827 by the 21st. While we were expecting a rally off that low, we hadn’t expected the rally to last this long, nor make new highs. Nonetheless, the wave structure of this B wave rally appears to have formed another triangle. A contracting one in the cash market and an expanding one in the futures market. Reviewing the historical Primary B waves we noted a relationship in time between the preceeding A wave and the B wave. In 1929 the A wave took 16 days and the B wave 10 days. In 1938 the A wave took 27 days and the B wave 13 days. Thus far in 2009, the A wave took 29 days and the B wave has taken 8 days. This suggests when this triangle completes we should get another down wave exceeding the recent SPX 827 low. Based on this analysis and the time factor we are upgrading the recent low to Intermediate wave A and this rally to Intermediate wave B. Intermediate wave C should follow to complete Major wave B. This also suggests a low some time in the latter part of next week. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend makes new high at SPX 882
LONG TERM: bear market
Hi Mike,If the market forces a change in labeling.
CBOE equity P/C ratio today = 0.618 !!
My 15min indicators are similarly positioned to Monday\’s close (all turned down with the slower ones on the cusp of bearish crosses). The next open gapped down as I said was likely but the gap was not as bad as the futures indicated and it was all given back quickly. I\’m not sure if we\’ll get the same gap down tomorrow, but it\’s certainly more probable than normal. 859-860 would be the first target with various other targets down to 848 with air down to the 825 gap. Sitting on the 870-871 uptrend line from 847 has me a little worried if SPX doesn\’t gap down.I won\’t know my new daily signal until the 5PM NYMO results.
Thanks Mike!Hi PW,These websites continue to mess with what\’s not broke.The B is actually a light green indicating a temporary labeling.
BudDropped into the close, so the NYMO closed about 20pts. lower than yesterday.A/D ratio did finish at its worst of the day.Do not know if I have any original thoughts here.Think we are holding up through month end, and could possibly continue to do so through the release of the bank ST results.We all know of the very overbought conditions now, but this advance began from the strongest oversold conditions in many many years (decades?). These are interesting times, to say the least.I am modestly short now, expecting to go long after a correction to est. 765-825.
press, oh yeah, what ever happen to Martty? I remember watching him on Louis Rukeyser\’s Wall Street Week. He always looked on unsure when he spoke…In any case, I posted a link on his Zewig Breadth Thrust indicator here early AM…
Wiggin4uwrote: Thanks Tony! Dead on again as usual.Wiggin4u… What do you mean Tony is right? Please, enlighten me.
ok, sorry, I got a little over reacted..
Seems like 3 of 3 of ? of c of B ending for the day. Targets 840ish. Does this have to be an 3 down or can it be (please) a 5 down? 3 would land us at the long term 2-4 support for the opti-bulls. I would like to get their attention below 850.
time to get a few ZZZ got a big day today. Holiday here in China….
Thanks Tony! Dead on again as usual.
ROFL….
Bud, I suppose I don\’t, and I thought I did. And there\’s no solace in knowing that several of us here have been stung. But a nice close coming.
Palroy…..any thought\’s on the direction?
Bud, yeah… its those annoying things at the bottom of the screen under the women market analysts with big teeth
Bud Foxwrote:EGOLD…..actually, I began in the summer of 1982. With a $45/ year newsletter that went out each week. LOL.That\’s awesome Bud !!(not 2 hijack) I started running orders on the CME floor that summer for Stotler & Company..not making much more than $45 a week..Half air traffic controller,and half market timer All Bad Ass !!Later guys Im done ..
New tech. No one knows what the tape is anymore!
Yeah…..now those are a few very famous words….don\’t fight the tape.And…you do know how to read the tape, right?
I used to love to hear Zweig make all the cheerleaders cry on Ruykeiser\’s show
Marty Zweig\’s voice is ringing in my ears: "don\’t fight the tape." So, I3, a message to you, me, and the other bears: Don\’t fight the tape. (I sure have and I am smarting.)
I f*$&^ knew it!
EGOLD…..actually, I began in the summer of 1982. With a $45/ year newsletter that went out each week. LOL.Yeah, I have had some interesting times. Back in the 80\’s I had a duo life style. Half air traffic controller,and half market timer. Sleep, what exactly is that? Yes, I have some money on the linenow for my close friends IRA. I think, being responsible is more important than sleep….
Puddy, in my opinion, that 89wSMA might be a good target if the price-volume congestion area and 200dSMA is broken. I\’ll keep it in mind and study it if that happens.
877-878 was a backtest of the uptrend line from 855 that was broken (I think I said 847 earlier but that uptrend line has not been broken yet). I\’d prefer to see 878.18 hold into the close but I suppose an irregular flat is possible.I mentioned a couple weeks ago that 3 unfilled gap ups from 768, 811 and 825 accounted for almost all the gains from 768 to 876. Well, now we\’ve had two more gap ups from 855 and 874. The latter has been filled but this rally has been founded on gap ups since 768. I don\’t know what that means historically (is it strength, weakness, manipulation or what?) but it\’s interesting.
This is the first time I have seen Pesevento beating himself up because his prediction did not come true. Although I have not been following him long.
Bud, you are a pro. Man you were there in 1987. Gosh you know Dan etc..You in the IV league, I am a beginner. I don\’t know what the crap I talkto you. You pretty much know about any topic. You don\’t freaking sleep.Man you are pretty darn good on what you do! About UNG, I know theyhad earlier policy for going towards UNG are main source. But somehowis gone.
I feel like Rainman counting toothpicks…Wapner at 4…
SEOK – yes, I know. He did act surprised, which maybe true. Or a cover for what hesee\’s as an error in judgement. I would think, he is doing a CYA thing right now….But, we\’ll see Friday. Actaully, I am thinking 5/18 might be more important as a top….Just my thoughts…
well let\’s hope this is 2 of 3. Should not top 878.18.
Bud. I was thinking the opposite. Market would go up into 5/5 and crashing down on 5/5 and keep going down into 5/18 and start move up on 5/18. But, Presevento was a bit shocked market broke 875 and keep hitting the higher high after 4/20.
Can see 5 down on the Q\’s and SPX (we also could see this yesterday).
EGOL…..BRIC countries, like China began their market advance earlier than US. Belieive China began in late October 08. They, if like China, Could be getting a bit tired, a lot of profits are already built into the Shanghai market, doubles.triples,etc….look at 600300.SS for example. and remember the exchange rate is nearly 7 to1 us dollar….
S2, Kenny has put up a chart where he indicates the 89 week sma is a target for the rally (currently just under 1200 but dropping). This would fit well with Tony and Kenny is quite a bearish individual. Just another view.
stop with all your technical this market needs to go down and down hard, technicals dont matter when its beiing manipulated dates and waves and financial astrology and moon phases and whatever its artificialy held up and the only thing that matters is time, because when the time comes and that elastic snaps and the natural order of this market comes back reality will hit us all and finally whe will make one hell of a sharp decline and then after that whe will be able to start building a new and better economyWhe cant predict anything now because its heavily influenced by gov money, the obama administration is trying to keep the american way of living on life support by financng debt with more debt from money printed out of thin air.
SEOK…..I do not know. I was thinking, and probably wrong that we have a sell 4/30-5/1down into a low 5.4-5 and the rocket up into the 5/18 date…..Presevento should be TFNN Friday so we may have to wait to hear his thoughtson time.I do think, that the NY Summation index has worked so well since 3/9 that thenext signal, a sell. Will be a big one. But, this indicator can lag a bit. Whichis what trend indicators do best, they lag in term so time.
One question, most emerging market are much closer to 200Sdma, then U.S. by now.If U.S. pushes higher (just for a thought), then those BRIC will have more chancesfor BULL, it\’s really odd situation? in global economy, when they all landed inbear at same time around?Any thoughts welcomed
Cool, we just broke the mini uptrend I was talking about earlier… I wish we had more volume (although price matter first) and more power on the move down, now we need to close both 30 and 60 minutes candle below that line at close… we might still close above the trend line at close, that would sux…
I was just reviewing price-volume for the last year. I mentioned many times before that 850-900 was a HUGE congestion zone. After the last few weeks, it has become more so. In fact, you can extend the price-volume to 825-925 and there is simply nothing comparable to it going back 1 year, 2 years or 10+ years until you look all the way up at 1250-1350. Why is that important? Well, first, it means the 912 pivot, 944 January top and 200dSMA (which will be down to 900-950 in the next few weeks) are HUGE levels if this bull run intends to run to 1100+ like some are suggesting. Second, it means we could be here for longer than many expect because there are going to be lots of trapped/scared bulls and bears selling at break-even or small profits. Third, it means dropping much below 800-825 is very dangerous for bulls. Let\’s say SPX filled the 768 gap, it would have to rally 60-90 pts and 8-12% just to get back to the lower part of the 825-925 congestion area which may put a cap on the rally. That plays into the idea that if a large correction is due, 789-825 should contain the damage with a likely trip back well into the congestion zone possibly testing the upper end of it and the 200dSMA. Of course, that type of action will only solidify the 825-925 area even more meaning SPX could trade in and around the 825-925 congestion area for 6 of the next 12 months with possibly a short-lived spike above it and likely a huge dip below it at some point with another backtest. Currently, today\’s 875 is the middle of that congestion zone. On the other side of the coin, if SPX can break through 944 and the 200dSMA for more than a few days, this techncial evidence supports a HUGE ramp up. Just something to consider since all that price-volume zone represents tons of trades/investments that people have made over weeks, months and years. Good luck.
easy 4 u 2 say
…see yas after the close ..
Bud, if market goes down prior to 5/5, do you think it could be a big up day on 5/5? what do you think? I heard about this date as well from Presevento.
oops 3 of a of c of b of B
fat fingers
really shouldn\’t hold if this is 3 of a of c of B
could probably make the case for a H&S neckline here as well
Second try at the three day support
lets rock !
was not (correction) confirmed by a higher high. Sorry
spoke too soon, c of 2 was confirmed by a higher high.
Thanks Aureliano…I\’m readyI don\’t deserve 2b up $$ 2 day..If I miss a move cause I didn\’t chase so b it..itll be open 2 morrow
Looks like c of 2 is targetting 882ish
GDP down 6% in America……distribution is almost over…..mark down phase….is coming….God bless
FYI – it would appear that the 5/1 sell has come in a bit early, Next is the 5/4-5 date.And what I find interesting, inconjunction with the Presevento 5/18 date is that itappears to fall inline with the Neely flash email I received.Tony….if there is a BIG TURN coming in May. I know you will be working hardto catch it.Tony, or S2. My question is this. There usuually is a rather healthy decline just prior toa major crest – call it Wave 4 low – for now. Do you 2 see this forming?Bud
I will not chase !! my price or nuttin !
short this rally.. I could b wrong ..but what else is new?:)
lee, getting ready for what?
880ish in 15 minutes would be a nice convergence of: 1) 15min BB midline which should hold; 2) retest of 3 day uptrend support broken earlier today; 3) nice abc for 2; and 4) my personal happiness and breakeven point.
getting ready guys…
Let\’s see if this 2 has and abc in it or not (looks like a yes). Pretty comfortable with it so far. The 1 fell a bit short of target but if this 2 stays below 880 the larger 1 down targets 840ish
$BKX hourly chart……Wedge…..which way will it break? Down is the answer. bKX hourly is making lower highs….$38.07 high….35.23 high…….and todays lower high..of 34.33…..This Bank index Bloomberg news is reporting 6 of the 19 banks will need more working capital…..I\’m kinda surprised its not more….Where did all of the markets gains go today? God bless
BKX may be treading water until the ST results are release Monday?This could provide another opportunity for a market top?Also, XLF could be in a triangle prior to a move up?Already very painful to many, this potential topping process could get more uncomfortable.
VIX is trying to crack above its primary downtrend line (89.53–>81.48…) for about the 8th time. Last time it lasted about 2 days slightly above it but fell back in. When that finally breaks, VIX should theoretically hit 40-42 with SPX falling hard. Has it used up its 9 lives?
Email from Glen Neely – Sales Ptich???? You Decide….In January of 2008, I proclaimed "The Bull Market is Over." Few believed, but 16 months later, it is obvious that call was right on target. In the next few weeks, the S&P is likely to SOAR upward, convincing most the Bear market is over. Oh how I wish that were true. NEoWave structure (an advanced, logical form of Elliott Wave) tells us something very different. What it indicates is almost impossible to believe and will shock nearly everyone, causing most to jump back into the market at exactly the wrong time. This will be the last, great trading opportunity of this decade (and maybe the next), so you do not want to miss it. The NEoWave S&P TRADING service not only caught nearly every major move in the S&P during 2008, but as recently as this month it was rated by TIMER DIGEST to be in the TOP 3 most profitable in all 3 categories (last 3 months, 6 months and 12 months). Preparation is key to surviving the coming turbulence. If you are not already a subscriber, get your NEoWave S&P Trading service now (click link below) so you can fully prepare for what\’s coming. http://www.neowave.com/product-trading-service.aspGood luck,Glenn Neely
Noticed that BKX has essentially traded between its 10 and 20dSMAs for the 9 previous days, but that can\’t happen many more days since their gap is narrow. This morning, BKX broke out (using KBE as a proxy) but has since fallen back to its 10dSMA. I\’d like to see KBE trade in the red today or maybe it could trade flat sitting on the MAs and then gap down. This index might signal trading moves in preparation for next week\’s stress tests which are rumored to be delayed by a day or two. BKX has certainly lagged SPX recently with negative divergence.
If ur gonna sell ..sell rallies…
Amos, still don\’t know how you think FAZ is going to $24… it would require XLF go to $0… yes, you can have compound effect if xlf zig zag down and milk as much from FAZ as possible, but $24 still a very tall order to fill…
FAZ to $24…….its just a matterof time……Equilibrum = Balance…..I\’m not selling any of holdings until FAZ reaches its target price of $24…….Time target should be in the latter part of May. God bless
The uptrend line from 847 was broken and the channel or expanding triangle line was touched at 889. The move down from 889 appears to be 5 waves. Still, no major damage to the bullish cause yet. Closing flat or negative would be a start with a break of the 8-10dSMAs at 858-860 a potential turn signal, but, to confirm a bearish move IMHO, SPX still needs to break 848-850 which is near the 855 gap, lower uptrend line from 827, 20dSMA and 848 EW pivot. SPX could easily bounce above 880 in an ABC and then back down to 867-876 by the close leaving us hanging until May 1st. Until 848 is breached, risk remains high for new SPX highs in short order. Good luck.
Well hold on to your butts lads and gen, here comes the bounce… and it bounced right on the mini uptrend started April 28th. So we need to break that uptrend first and the we got the bigger uptrend which is at around 85.75 on SPY
I am again short with SPY puts. VIX is trying to bubble up. I think we have reached the reversal point. Daily and Hourly RSIs have -D, Stochs are turning down, Volume tapering off since March rally. IBD 100 lagging the broad market. So many sell signals lining up. Are we waiting for some news….
Ha, we are back to the base of the rounded reversal yesterday…Seok, draw fib line from high to low, most likely 50% retrace which is at the Open low?
if it bounds, where is it bounce for intraday?
666 >>>>> 888 >>>>> 777 , usually I dont play ! but ! good Luck !
Some may argue I\’m stretching it, but I am not counting my daily sell signal at the close yesterday as a failure yet. The estimate was to reach 859 before 889. 888.7 was just shy of the max drawdown but the key thing is that the recommendation based on 75% odds was to wait to make the trade the following day, so one could have easily entered short at 880-888 with a fairly good risk/reward with stop above 889 and profit target near 859 (or maybe even 868 if you bump it up due to better entry). If you got in short at 880-889, then any SPX price at 870 or less (which we just touched) should not turn into a losing trade.
NDX banging on 200MA
So, if we hit the 867 for *gasp* 1 of 1 of 1 of 1 of c of b of B… what will 2 look like. I have to say the fear biter in me says I should lighten up there in case we get one of Lee\’s 99% retracements…
Well, I guess 882-883 was TOO perfect. 888.7 is now a 24% retrace of 1576…still a virtual Fib 23.8% retrace until we cross 900. If SPX can get below 873 before getting above 880, it would look like 5 waves down from the top with a target of 868 +/-. Otherwise, there\’s a stronger chance of a new high IMHO. I\’m still sticking with the irregular flat from 876 with one more C wave down.
Lee! You\’re rich! $1
but hey if whe ever make news lows im ill be rich
Frank, some people show a triangle on the 60 min chart that shows 30 on the Q\’s as a retest. You might want to watch that area when we get there for a bounce
impulsive please im holding faz @ 20 $ talk about beiing assraped i dont even know if i will ever break even so
hhahah i knew it mediatik .(Hors ligne)a écrit : im gonna make a little prediction alright if this downtrend continues be ready to see the swine flu come back full force in the news Il y a 18 minutes | Supprimer
Who called it? CNBC just announced WHO says Pig Flu pandemic imminent
MCK, Lee, you guys called it!mediatik, news are irrelevant. I am just trying not to get a$$raped by GS.I am still hiding under the desk. Somebody please call me when we get down to 830~840 level. I just want to break even…
Well we filled the gap, now what?
Tony moved the green \’b\’ over today\’s SPX high…
Thanks Palroy!
That\’s alot of lines on that 1 st chart of S2s..Haven\’t seen that many lines on a chart since the early 80\’s
Berniewrote: S2, could you post the link again to your public charts please.http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3026812
S2, could you please post the link to your public charts again.Thanks!
im gonna make a little prediction alright if this downtrend continues be ready to see the swine flu come back full force in the news
This looks pretty well-formed… so obviously I\’m screwed!
well, gap closed, so what next? No bounce, give me a break… we need a bounce to make a lower high, still no lower nigh and lower low on 60 minutes spx chart…
breakeven finally
Sold SPY puts, expecting a bounce at SPX 875….
Lee, by the way, about yesteday\’s TNX chart, I guess this is what it means… Bond market is telling Ben to shove it up his a$$…http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1002-Oh-Beeeeen-10y-Ts.html
this is the best and happiest bankruptcy ever lol
Lee, Is ok, I placed my bet already, I\’ve added bit more short today, I\’ve added some SDS and QID. QID was a bad choice, wow, QQQQ just keep on surprise me! That sucker is strong today… oh well, eventually people will come to their senses… or maybe not, bulltard are bunching of stock buying retards…