REVIEW
Market soars (SPX 11.8%) after FED chairman Bernanke addresses the Council on Foreign Relations before the open tuesday morning. The following is the text of the speech: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20090310a.htm. Economic reports during the week were generally mixed; Budget deficit expanded, the Trade deficit contracted, Inventories declined at a lesser rate, and the weekly Jobless claims were about the same. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 9.9%, the NDX/NAZ added 10.2%, Asia gained 5.4%, and Europe was up 7.2%.
LONG TERM: bear market
With the stock market now into its eighteenth month of the bear market we have the potential for the first completed wave pattern of Primary degree. We have been expecting this bear market to unfold in three Primary waves: ABC. Primary wave A would complete the first low, followed by a strong Primary wave B, and then a retest or lower lows in Primary wave C to end the bear market. Primary wave A has subdivided into three Major waves: Mar 08 (SPX 1257), May 08 (SPX 1440) and potentially Mar 09 (SPX 667). Major waves A and C have subdivided into five Intermediate waves. Major wave B was a simple counter-trend rally. The five Intermediate waves within Major wave C are defined as: Jly 08 (1200), Aug 08 (1313), Nov 08 (741), Jan 09 (944) and currently Mar 09 (667). Should the Mar 6th low at SPX 667 hold, and OEW then confirms a new uptrend, we can expect a Primary wave B rally to follow lasting several months. Historically, using similar bear markets (1929-32, 1937-42, 1973-74) as a guide, a Primary wave B rally can retrace as much as 50% of the entire bear market in about five months. The bear market decline thus far has been from Oct 07 (SPX 1576) to Mar 09 (SPX 667): 909 points. A 50% retracement would drive the SPX to 1122. Our Primary wave B target, all along, has been between the OEW pivots at SPX 1107 and 1179. Even after a 58% decline in the SPX, the waves and the pivots are still in alignment. After such a massive decline, a 50% retracement rally sounds quite extraordinary. But it is really only a rally back to the September 08 levels.
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend
The downtrend that started in early Jan 09 at SPX 944 appears to have unfolded in five waves. This is the typical wave structure for every downtrend during this bear market. The characteristic for the first four of the five downtrends, has been a relatively strong second wave followed by a weak fourth wave. This characteristic altered during the volatile fifth downtrend between Aug 08 and Nov 08. That downtrend offered two fakeout volatile rallies, first in mid-Sept. and then in late-Oct. Those rallies were the second and fourth waves of the downtrend. During the current downtrend the market appears back to its normal characteristics: a strong second wave and weak fourth wave. With this in mind we have maintained the count posted on the SPX/DOW hourly charts. The five waves during this downtrend are defined: wave 1 (804), wave 2 (875), wave 3 (742), wave 4 (780) and wave 5 at the recent lows (667). When attempting to define a downtrend low we naturally rely on the pivots, fibonacci and several technical indicators. At the recent low there were positive RSI divergences on every timeframe except the monthly, which is the most oversold it has been since the 1930′s. There is also a positive RSI divergence in market breadth (NYAD pg.5), and the VIX (pg. 5) is now downtrending. Also of note was tuesday’s surge in up/down volume. The 27:1 reading was the highest since Sept 07, while the bull market was still ongoing. Lastly, during the volatile Aug-Nov downtrend, not once did the market surge on a week to week basis, until that downtrend ended in late Nov. Then, the market bottomed on friday Nov 21st and surged 10.9% the following week. This downtrend appears to have ended on friday Mar 6th and this week it surged 9.9%. In summary, probabilites suggest that the downtrend ended on March 6th at SPX 667.
SHORT TERM
Support for the SPX remains at 734 and then 717, with resistance at 768 and then 789. Short term momentum was getting overbought again at the close on friday. The rally from the lows looks impulsive, and is not choppy like the rallies during the downtrend. In fact, on a very short term basis this rally has maintained support from the SPX 673 secondary low on monday. The rally has also been interesting in its dealings with the overhead pivots. On monday the SPX rallied to 695 (the 696 pivot) and was turned away. Then on tuesday the SPX broke through the 696 pivot, rallied to 720 (just passed the 717 pivot), and closed there. On wednesday the SPX rallied to 732 (the 734 pivot) and was turned away. Then on thursday the SPX broke through the 734 pivot, and rallied to 753. Finally on friday the SPX rallied to 758, just under the 768 pivot and closed there. It does appear that the SPX may challenge the 768 pivot before any sizeable pullback, (more than 22 points), occurs. Best to your trading!
FOREIGN MARKETS
The Asian markets all rallied this week with an average gain of 5.4%. Only China’s SSEC is in a confirmed uptrend.
The European markets rallied on average 7.2%, but neither the DAX nor the FTSE are in confirmed uptrends yet.
The Commodity equity markets rallied 7.3%, and both Brazil and Canada are still waiting for confirmed uptrends.
COMMODITIES
Bonds were relatively flat on the week, and have been going sideways for about a month.
Crude gained 2.4% in its uptrend, but the rally looks choppy and may run into trouble at the $50 level again.
Gold lost 1.4% on the week and appears in an unconfirmed downtrend. Expecting a retest of $800-$840 in coming weeks.
The Euro rallied 2.2%, and the USD down 1.5%. Both currencies appear to be setting up for trends reversals soon.
NEXT WEEK
Certainly a busy week ahead. Monday kicks it off with the Empire index, Industrial production and the Home builders index. On tuesday the PPI and Housing starts, then on wednesday the CPI and Current account deficit. Thursday we have the weekly Jobless claims, Leading indicators and the Philly FED. Then on friday Options expiration. The FED starts their periodic FOMC meeting on tuesday, and reports their findings on wednesday. Also on wednesday the Banking Director Cole gives testimony to the Senate. On thursday FED governor Tarullo gives testimony to the Senate, and on friday there is a speech by FED chairman Bernanke in AZ. Busy, busy week. Best to your trading!
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Hi all,The most important thing about rallies is that they hold support.When support pivots fail, rallies fail. And visa versa for selloffs.While I feel the bottom is in for this downtrend. The test of that anaysis is now!
Hi Cobalt,The different SMA/EMA\’s are jusy a reminder to me of certain differences.
Serge, The guys on the Tiger show you referenced (my first time to listen) seem pretty confident SPX needs waves BC still. SO SO many people are saying that. Whether you use the irregular flat 3-3-5 from 692 or my ABC count from 667 (667–>732=A,732–>714=B,714–>775?=C where C=A approxmately), there are legitimate counts indicating this up move COULD be over. That might be surprise #1 since even many bears see the up move as a 12345=A, and surprise #2 is that this up move was not wave 4 from 944 for SPX, it was potentially 1-2-1-2 based on other markets as I proposed on the weekend so even the bears will cover and buy too early. Of course, my alternate surprise scenario is an ABC above 804 which will turn many ABC wave 4 bears into bulls, but I don\’t know if the market has enough mustard and it needs to finish its business before all the stimuli take strong effect.
I knew it! You are a whale! : )
If this down move is impulsive, then based on my 1min chart observations, it would be ideal to gap/drop down tomorrow morning 5-10 points followed by two or three wave 4-5 combinations likely to the lower end of 734-742 before bouncing in a wave 2. If sentiment increases in bullishness again on that bounce, minor wave 3 will be setup well.
Maybe ran out of steam, but do not think weare yet done with going higher. Still looking forthe SP800 ish level….that\’s all….
yes I3 ….But u can make alot of $$ just trading 2\’s and 3\’s lot mini\’s.
Tiger is onmms://70.84.37.42:8083/tfnn
small means 10 contracts?
finally!! waiting for this all day! bull for sure ran out of steam today
makes sense to trade small..I need to learn that :0
its not easy ..thats 4 sure
we have just taggd the first, Sell signal at 757 on the 60 min chart….if your following Carolan\’s work….
don\’t want to be too chatty, but puddy, excellent!
Gah.. Started building shorts Friday late. Without the T/A and EW there was no way I\’da held them through today\’s high. Everything is green, green, green now since I started with TNA shorts.
what the hell is going on? I just saw 200,000 contract move, are we part of it, we better be, pal, or I\’m gonna eat your lunch for you…
Also, if it is the last major leg down, there should be some sort of panic in the selling…..stocks being thrown out the window. Again, not a scenario for very large upticks.
if we stay under 757 Im taking em home
Whatever twists and turns we get on the way down, I now pronounce Wave 4 over and dead.
Keep in mind that this could very well be 3 of 5 of Primary 1 down. The bounces up should be limited if that is the case…..
Hey I3 ,rather sell a rally… Get Catherine on the horn she was the shooter here..:)
Nothing he gets nothing until we trade 740..00
Lee, sell a few thousand contracts and keep it below 755, please??
S2, I like the micro. It\’s a possible map. Plus, when you\’re "hot" they are golden. We\’ll see if you are hot…
Lee what did you feed that dog? geez…
yea…
Must break below 755 to have failed 5th wave on last C and overlap. Otherwise bull case still intact.
Probably getting too micro, but here\’s the ideal scenario to make sense of all the crap in my brain.1. Tuesday: SPX trades down to 734-742 in a 5-wave impulse probably temporarily bouncing along the way from just above or below the gap fill at 756 and back testing the breakdown around 766 before finally reaching 734-742. Wave 1? I\’ll probably sell half my shorts here and reload the next day.2. Wednesday: SPX bounces back to 756-766. Wave 2?3. Thursday: SPX falls to 734-742 again possibly surviving a breakdown until options expire. Wave 3?4. Friday: SPX continues to fall just below 714-720 in an impulse to trigger long stops and short profit-taking before bouncing back to 724-742. Wave 3&4?5. Following week: SPX drops but holds 696ish the first time bouncing to 714 or 734-742. Wave 5 and then larger 2? Then 3 of 3 of 3 of 5 begins cracking through 667 pretty easily down to 585 where w3=w1*2 approximately and near Tony\’s pivot and below a lot of stops/buys people have at 600ish.6. The following following week
– SPX bounces in a back test to 650-670 and then down to 500-550. That would complete wave 3 of 5 in the counts I offered over the weekend. Then, 450-500 would complete wave 5 probably into the 2nd week of April..
Sorry. Don\’t want to piss on the parade. Go down you commie *astard! Down I say!
4th waves are never straight forward
We hear you, S2…..always keep the alternative clearly in mind is the best policy.
S2, Thanks …
Obviously my shorts today are with you guys, but just realize that your sentiment is common to what I\’m hearing from bears on the blogs meaning it will likely not go so easily for bears. The scenario I just laid out would be one slim possibility for how the market could delay things for another 3-5 days even if its ultimate destination is down hard. There should be short covering at 742ish, 715ish and 696ish to fuel temporary rallies at a minimum.Also, as an alternate to my bearish scenario below, a drop to 734-742 sets up SPX for an inverse H&S bottom which would project to the upper end of my 850-880 congestion area. 734-742 is very important.
Now ur talking Hawk !!
I want one of those "limit down" opens…!
me too, Hawk
I want to see a strong gap down and continuation tomorrow.
THIS IS SPARTA!!!
Yah, SPX fell just short of 779 where A=C in my ABC count from 667. But probably close enough for hand grenades and Tony\’s pivots.
The Dow advance from the low can be seen as an a-b-c with a = c = ~535 pts. each
Trend line from 673 to 714 to 742 was just tested and held at least temporarily.
can this up move be a rising wedge (666 to now)?
My 15min indicators are signaliing a probable rollover here. The last 2 signals only led to 16 and 18 point drops (732–>714 and 758–>742), but the 3rd or 4th signal is usually the charm for a larger drop. 774-18=756 potential…gap fill? Then, we\’ll see what happens. Falling to 766 makes this more likely.
Need some nice volume on this push down…
Brett, I noticed the same thing this morning. My observation of the bear market is that wave 2s have been failing at the upper BB while wave 4s haven\’t quite made it there. Maybe more evidence SPX is in a 1-2-1-2 instead of a wave 4 if it gets there, but I\’m not giving that too much weight.ISE was at 161 until a few minutes ago. The last time we saw a cluster of 3 readings of 160+ within a week or so like we could have today was Christmas to end of year 2008. You remember what happened after that. The 2 times before that were 1) the day before the bull market top and 2) the 3rd week of July just before a 10% drop and the last bull market gasp. Over the weekend, I gave you stats regarding singular 160+ readings which have seen increasing drawdowns but prophetic to the downside nonetheless. In our case, ISE has 2 readings of 160+ and is attempting 3. EVen if it falls short, it shouldn\’t make you feel too good since I arbitrarily picked 160 to analyze extreme cases and 2 instances ain\’t much better. Volatility levels suggest the next drop should be more violent than the 2007 cases.
It\’s flirting with breaking the trendline……
c\’mon, keel over already!
I could argue that the S&P will go up to 810 to touch the top of the Bollinger band, right into S2\’s danger zone. based on my primitive analysis.
OK, AAPL to 55
Sold half my calls…
Naked Spaniards in seal-cull protesthttp://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.faea6ca815221f889eb08324c42f2bef.1d1&show_article=1
OK, dow hit 7380. time for the pullback.
this is not fun…
Bonuses should only be allowed if you succeed…You don\’t deserve a bonus if you torpedo the financial system. In the future there should be agreements that allow for bonuses to be reclaimed if the companies fail. That will get the short term bias out of management.
Serge, you could be right on. The Friday series of 1-2s may be resolving in a Monday series of 4-5s after the gap up. 774, 779, 784 are target numbers I have after 771. I need to looka t Tony\’s 789. All but 1 of my 15min and 60min negative divergences are holding due the choppy rise, but they could be in jeopardy if 780+ is reached.
I agree with you Brett. The question is how best to do that. If that\’s what the govt wants to do, then nationalize AIG first, THEN fire them.
Which is more offensive, Obama meddling or the "Heads I win, tails the taxpayer loses" status quo in the financial industry? Both stink, but the latter is more offensive…Those thieves should be put in jail.
Sorry, 7380
Tonys count seems to be right on with this abc move, his 789 pivot is getting closer and should end this wave.If we reach that number the gap in BGZ at 67.50 will get filled, I will go short then.Holding BGU in the meantime.
resistance on the 60 minute chart on the Dow at 6380…..
Also, when this 60 minute channel breaks, there will be no looking back for awhile…..should go practically straight down
As disgusted as I am re the AIG bonuses, I find Obama meddling in business & not letting the process take care of itself alarming.
Risk of a little mini-wave 3 down is high. Talking 10-15+ SPX points. Maybe a gap fill. 771+ eliminates that temporarily at least.
Brett, Let me clarify. I believe the 804-822ish DANGER zone and 850-880 heavy historical congestion area are VERY important. If 667 was THE bottom, I certainly give better than 50/50 odds that 880 will break and 950-1050 will be reached at a minimum. However, because I place so much importance on the 800s, if SPX drops sub-600, I think it is unlikely SPX will exceed 880 for a couple years. 450–>750 would be a 67% gain and a 27% retrace (allowed for B waves). 550-880 would be a 60% gain and a 32% retrace. You can see how 850-880 actually looks like a reasonable B-wave bounce from such low levels especially if you believe this bear market is worse than most. I\’m not making a prediction here…just suggesting a strong possibility that should be considered particularly for retirement accounts.
S2, LOL! Good luck.
S2 why is your B target so conservative..As you said you don\’t expect 880 to be topped for years.
Hawk, I fully expect 771 will break now that you said that. LOL. I think 780ish is still a good possibility but with a potential EDT, negative divergences and initial top targets met, I figure this is a good place to build the majority of my short position and add lower or higher based on action.
S2, I gotta give credit where credit is due, and you rock man. If 770 marks the end of our wave 4, yours was best wave 4 trading that I\’ve seen anywhere on the net.
Lee, May SPY options in small trading account. SDS in large IRA. Not full boat. 401K to cash equivalents. If the trade works, I\’d likely sell half to all around 741 and get back in if it breaks that and then bounces off 714-720. If it fails, I\’ll sell half or all around 784 and look to re-short at 796-822. Basically, I\’m not at risk for as much as you so I can afford a larger stop or scale in. I want to get into natgas, oil, gold and SSO when I believe in THE multi-month bottom. Good luck.
the rally today especially has been driven by the financials in the SP500. When the financials turn lower so will the whole market. It looks like it has already started to happen.GS looks like it has a interesting triangle forming. JPM also is overbought and is bumping into a trendline.I think bearish is the way to be right now
short @ 767.00
bot sds @ 87, avg 87.5other position FAZ and SPY jun 65 Puts
only reason I ask is 14 point stp 4 me would be risking about 7g in esm
nice job S2…. What did u short? SPY?
0% long now. Shorted 770. Stop about 784. See a potential EDT this morning that could complete the ABC from 667. If so, the EDT is satisfied but may have a couple points higher. If not, I see SPX reaching 780ish in a last standard impulse higher.
Seems destined for 771.
Benanke misquoted world wide that he said recession would end in 2010. CNBC talking about Mark to Model, new term. My gosh, all Bull Shits flying around to justify this BS rally.
bot SDS @ 88
this sucks…
The Dow\’s getting squeezed between the pivot & the uptrend line…..
Bud,I am of the same opinion as you are. Namely that there was no real capitulation down at the 665 level and therefore it cannot be the low.
The Dow hasn\’t broken the up channel on the 60 minute yet. Up against the 768 pivot…..
Serge isn\’t that triangle void now? It fell apart like a cheap suit
VIX upnatgas, oil, nasdaq and gold downNot real encouraging. ISE and CPC are moving from extreme bullishness to mild bullishness.Uptrend line from SPX 673 is at about 758. That line may hold as it has so far this morning and lead to one more slight high or it may break and get backtested. In either case, I\’d be a little surprised if SPX has a big down day today.For this week, I can easily see 734-741 getting tested with a 50% retrace bounce OR 714-720 getting tested with a bounce back to 734-741.
Keep in mind that there\’s an AAPL conference tomorrow…..I\’m waiting until after this initial selling lets up to see how AAPL responds
NDX/COMP seems quite weak today. Any news drivers?
S2…OEW is Bullish, ref SSEC 000001.SS.AGET has W3 Low 10/28 1661. W4 High 2/17, 2417….AGET [S] 1560-1480….S2 do not see 1200ish yet…below 1983the market decline should accelerate.IMO….SSEC is leading the SP500 by about 1 month. Further, thewave pattern of Shanghai Composite was a clear a-b-c up to theW4 High. Upside is appearing very limited, rally today was onvery low vol. market appears to be playing off DAX/FTSE monday…….
seeing quite a few negative divergences on SPX 15min and 60min charts. SPX may need 771+ to eliminate them. 765ish may be a good short with 772-775 stop.
Long faz here
Looks like I may get a chance to sell my remaining 20% longs a little higher. I\’m going 0% long today and will short today or tomorrow depending on how things unfold.NDX needs 2% higher to have a 62% Fib retrace of its February top. COMPQ needs 3% higher to reach a 62% Fib retrace of its early February top. Both NDX and COMPQ have already exceeded a 50% retrace increasing their odds as a wave 2. INDU and SPX need 2% higher to reach a 50% retrace of the February highs and make a wave 2 count more likely than wave 4 as I proffered last night. FTSE needs 1.5% higher from the current intraday price to reach a 50% retrace of its February top.Maybe all the indexes want 1-3% higher to confirm the more bearish 1-2 or 1-2-1-2 counts versus the 1234 many are counting since January. SPX 770ish does the trick with key levels just above there at 774 and 779. After that, 804-822 is the next key zone.Bud may want to chime in here, but SSEC certainly looks more bullish as it recently reached its 200dSMA. However, getting rejected by the 200dSMA (as it has for now) is fairly common the first time in a bear market going off my memory of chart history and can lead to new lows. Either 5 waves completed from October 2007 or there is a double zigzag with a typical looking B wave since October 2008 and a C down needed to complete things likely to a new low (1200ish would be perfect by my calculations from 2200ish now…ouch). The double zigzag would match my assessment of the other markets best.To change my opinion about a 20-40% crash wave beginning imminently, I would like to see…1. NDX and SSEC charts remain constructive. Obviously NDX exceeding its February high which is 8-10% higher would be confirmation of THE intermediate bottom being behind us. That\’s the equivalent of 825-840 in SPX and above the heart of my DANGER zone at 804-822. Although that\’s a lot of lost profit to leave on the table, If Tony is correct that a 50% retrace is probable for the B wave, 1000-1100 would still leave you with a 20-30%+ profit opportunity from SPX 850 so it\’s not outrageous to wait for that signal.2. VIX drop below 37/38 and ideally below 30.3. Sentiment get more bearish – ISE, CPC etc.4. SPX rise above the 779ish level and preferably take out 822ish.5. Higher volume confirmation.6. Shaking off any worsening news.7. Gold hold 890-900 indicating an inflation trade possibly.8. Oil break $50-52 indicating a turning economy and possible inflation trade.Good luck.
Rallies begin with short covering and the real test is whether sufficient buyers bid up prices after the initial burst. In Friday’s session the 5 minute charts never closed beneath the daily 739.38 pivot and stayed bullish on the 15 minute time frame throughout the day closing at 755.90 – above Thursday’s high. The 15 minute charts remain bullish and still exhibit a clear pattern of higher highs and higher lows. In the overnight Globex session, prices have reached the 15 minute equivalent cash $SPX Fibonacci targets of 762.60 and are just shy of the 1.618 price target of 768.07. In the shortest of timeframes, the market is extended on the upside. Continued hourly closes above 768 target 773 and 784 on the cash S&P 500 index.As of Friday’s close, the 15 minute chart remains bullish on continued closes above 735. Should the 10 point gap up in the futures hold, symmetry support ratchets up a few points. A 5 minute close beneath 749 is the first indication of a larger correction to the 735 area. The hourly charts are bullish and remain so with continue hourly closes ideally above 741. Because of the powerful reversal on the 10th Mar, from key weekly Fib projection / support levels, the benefit of the doubt is given to the bullish case with continued hourly closes above 731. The daily charts have turned marginally bullish and are now in an overbought position, usually when the larger daily timeframe just turns bullish, there is a reaction on the shorter frame downward. The next corrective pattern lower after this immediate swing move terminates should tell us more about the duration of the rally. The weekly charts are bearish and the $SPX has rallied to key 764 weekly symmetry resistance. A weekly close above 764 ushers in significantly higher targets, and means the S&P 500 is most likely going to continue to rally to monthly resistance levels to 800 at a minimum. A weekly close above 869 would represent the largest rally since the beginning of the bear market in Oct ’07, exceeding the 7 week 203 point 27.4% rally in Nov ’08 – Jan ’09. The current rally is 86 $SPX points and 12.87% gain off the 9 Mar 667 lows.Today’s S&P 500 Cash $SPX daily pivot is 752.43, continued price action above this level is bullish. Prices remain comfortably above the weekly pivot at 729.24. Friday’s price action triggered High Continuation and NR7 signals on all of the major indexes, looking for follow through from yesterday’s price action. The NR7 signal indicates that Friday was the narrowest trading day of last seven days. Should Friday’s high or low be exceeded, prices should continue in the direction of the break for the balance of the day. Given the very short term overbought position on the 60 minute and daily charts, continued upside price action is probably not the highest probability move. If there is a reversal due on the indexes watch the Banking index closely today, the $BKX index has a Low Breakout Continuation Setup. This signal indicates that Friday’s low on the Banking Index is considered to be key and pivotal. An hourly close beneath Friday’s low on the $BKX would argue for strong corrective action to the downside. Updated 5 min, 15 min, Hourly, Daily, Weekly charts are posted at http://www.tradingpoints.net.
.14.2009A new Tax of 0.25% per Trade? One congressman wants to tax the value of all trades one quarter of 1%. The man who introduced the bill is congressman Peter Defazio Democrat from Oregon. These were his comments on Fox News:" Well you know we heard this before 1932, when congress doubled the then tax of point 22%. Devastatingly diminish banking business threaten the country\’s banking structure, possible closing of the stock exchange. The stock exchange at that point was that 41. Congress doubled the tax and use the money to rebuild America. And then of course the stock exchange went up to a thousand before the tax was allowed — in 1966. The brits have a tax of one half of 1% of all trades on the London exchange I think people are still doing business there aren\’t –"
Weekly SP500 RSI(14) turns in a Buy signal. Why is this important.History for the Weekly SP500 and the RSI(14) points to a very vveryrare Buy signal series.1987, 2002, and 3/13…..so there is now a building of evidence of aBullish market pattern going forward….
Amanda…the Glass Stegale act, removed allowed for the Bears to raid weakbanks stocks at will….Also, the failure I see is. You do not solve an insolvency problem with enormous debt increases…placing the country further in debt.Dumb financial management.On a side note. AIG states, it has legal contracts to provide bonus payouts.America not violate this contracts. Well. A Discremination Country. Banksbeing forced to renegoticate home loans, isn\’t that a breaking of a contractas well? sure it is….
Amanda…..fair enough…..and it is true there are a few conflicting Bullish signals.Not so much the NYMO, rather the NY McClellan Summation Index is my signal leading indicator that is Bullish. Secondly, the cycle work of the 247 day cycle on the AGET software, plus the seasonal trendsignals using the DIA into an early May high.Review…http://evilspeculator.com/http://ew-indextrader.blogspot.com/http://www.mmacycles.com/weekly-preview/mma-comments-for-the-week/mma-weekly-comments-for-the-week-beginning-march-16,-2009/So whats left ??? than to remain Bearish?? The answerfor me lies in the AGET simple wave count coming off the 1/6/09 high.Suggesting this is only a minor W4 high forming. Plus the STU and S2are still Bearish. At least I know, the STU is.My own plan, if this is not an a-b-c up off the3/6 low.Then we shall see follow through of the intial wave up.Implusively. Followed by a W2 decline and retracing theintial W1 advance. As a final thought. on 3/6 there was not in my opinion copitualtion….did I spell that right? So, I remain Bearuntil I see more evidence of a Primary low….What I am missing is the trust up, not in price but inmy own indicators. It is not clear then that this is so Bullish.I have found, when price leads the indicator. Visibly for a dumbguy like me then, it is wise not to be too quick to go Bull.If this is a Bull then we have 4-8 weeks to rally.
i think the uptick rule would significantly reduce shortingactivity. serge, ive been reading your comments here – your count is spot on. may i suggest you share your wisdom here http://theinflationist.com/the-inflationist-challenge-2009/the-speculator-challenge-2009.
forkoholic and bud, so you guys think this is wave 4/5 instead of 5/5? not entirely sure myself. im hoping market goes lower, i have not longed enough and have recently got out. following the lead of theinflationist. http://theinflationist.com/stockpicks/theinflationist-weekend-summary-150309 – their portfolio returns have been 34% since Jan. not bad considering markets gone the other way !
but, if the Monday-Wednesday decline, morphs into an Expiration low, thenI would have to lean on the 800-811 zone from a final topping place….that\’s all…