SHORT TERM: government tries to talk the market higher, DOW -251
Overnight the Asian markets were mixed. Europe opened higher but closed -1.95%. US index futures were higher overnight, and it was reported that the government was in talks with Citigroup to add additional capital, and President Obama stated bank nationalizations are not in the plans. At 8:30 the FED issued the following statement: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20090223a.htm. Then more rhetoric followed as the market opened. At the open the SPX gapped up to 778 in the opening minutes and was done rallying for the day. After that the market turned lower. At 10:30 the FED announced it was adding transparency to its balance sheet on its website: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/other/20090223a.htm. The market continued lower. By 1:00 the SPX hit a new low for the downtrend at 750, stabilized, and tried to rally. Over the next hour and a half it could only manage to rally 8 points. As the SPX headed to new bear market lows (741) it pulled up short at 742 just before the close and closed at 743. For the day the SPX/DOW were -3.45%, and the NDX/NAZ were -3.70%. Bonds were down 3 ticks, Crude dropped $2.00, Gold lost $6.00 and the Euro was lower. Support for the SPX now slips to 734 and then 717, with resistance at 768 and then 789. Short term momentum was near neutral at the open and ended oversold. Tomorrow, Case-Shiller home prices at 9:00, and then Consumer confidence at 10:00. Also at 10:00 FED chairman Bernanke starts a two-day monetary policy report to Congress, and FED governor Duke gives a speech in DC at noon. Should be an interesting day.
Today the DOW reached a level not seen since Oct 1997, and the SPX (except for one point) Apr 1997. An entire decade wiped out in 16 months. This market has now accomplished the minimum expected for this fifth Intermediate wave of Major wave C. Short term it appears the SPX/DOW are still in Minor wave 3 of Intermediate wave 5. A Minor wave 4 rally could start at any time as there is a slight positive divergence on the hourly charts. Then the market should complete this downtrend with a fifth wave, and this should complete the first important leg down of the bear market, Primary wave A. Fibonacci support remains between SPX 680-725. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend
LONG TERM: bear market
Picture of impulsive 3Picture of impulsive 3 impulsive 3wrote:Lee I go home empty handed..1 day does not make a trend …Get em 2 morrow !!!
I\’m flat now too, see em again tomorrow
U guys wanna buy some spu\’s,I\’ll sell em to ya cheap?
Lee I go home empty handed..
Closed 1/2 of shorts @ 768.
FDAX needs make drop to 3940 and go up to 4115. It dd up 50% to that target today. i would not be surprised if we will open higher tomorrow morning, low opening is good too but target is 789.
Ur a gentleman Buba ..And I couldn\’t agree more..Good luck with that short
Lee, actually you was right to buy at 16:14:30, because you didn\’t get any tick against you. I found that 16:10:30 – 16:11 is a good time too because margin calls are started to execute at 16:10. And we are not in competition, we are helping to each other to think better about market.
Flat now….too many people closing out shorts…..
I am going to close short (and may reverse?) if it drops to 765 area.
Thanks Buba but I bought the close at 745.00 u were long from 742.50.. So I feel I was riding ur coat tail ::))
Sold QM now for 2 points from yesterday.Lee, your trades are perfect.
Platinum is going down on low volume, waiting to get long around 1039.
I wanted 5 % but pigs eat shit I guess
Good job Buba…Im flat now
Going to close out by EOD to avoid any Obama effect……….
Move to 789 should take 2 days and make ABC. I think A is done.
Small short @ 774
Nice trade BubA !!
SPX up 4% I said 5% so not there as of yet..I will not let this slip a way..
Flat @773.75
covered a couple of my longs from yes settlement @ 774.00
small short here….
Just under SPX 775, the level they were all watching on the floor on CNBC the other day as a sell signal…..
For what its worth, I went long this morning at 753 in the futures, have just closed out at 768 and have gone short at the same price. Doesn\’t look like 5 waves down to the low to me. But we will see! There is a gap to fill at about 778, maybe we\’ll go to that level first before coming back down.
Bud, did you sell your oil? As long as oil is above 100$ by Jan. 2011 It can go as low 25$(CL) and my hedge won\’t even let me get a slap on the wrist
got 2 more lots to buy- would prefer to buy strength but I can do new lows.
HD …think you right. cannot be 3 low, unless the minute waves are counted uncorrectly
Go oil! That\’s the only position I have
just watching SPX rip like a deer in lights. I\’m fumbling so I better take off b4 a mistake. good job longs!
esh 75% retrace from yes low to yes high (pit) 768.25
Crude perking up also….:))
Can SPX finish 3 w/o 9 waves? This being 8. Anybody counting the extension different?
How about the one last night from a senator that Obama wasn\’t born in the U.S. despite having released his birth certificate back at the beginning of the campaign. I thought that was strange-that a sitting senator would have spoken on a national scale so stupidly.
yea but then there\’s the rust issue… ESH 763.50 is .618 from yes low to high (pit) hence the action at this # imo.
only if I had some balls of steel…
hahahahah….Lee. Just making idle observations as I contemplate the next move…..
Dow Jones removed all stocks in the industrial average priced under $10.00, effectively eliminating the crippled financial sector. Had they been left in the Dow would be lower and would have broken down below 7286.http://www.theinternationalforecaster.com/International_Forecaster_Weekly/World_Financial_System_In_A_State_Of_Insolvency
bite ur tongue MCK
Somebody mentioned about big wave B, I call it wave 4, It will be faster then wave 2(2003-2007) as it needs rapid rsi fire and market will morph like everything is solved and bottom is made. wave will be around 2 years and will cover 38.2% of fall from 1576 to bottom. This might seem no possible, but hey, who thought it could go down this much ?
Beginning to look like a bear flag to me……..(on 1 min chart)
options expiration in gold 2 day also
I agree Igor.. these related waves are equal w/in 5 pts, related to A by less than 2 pts and have half the momentum of smaller subwaves w/in this trading range. Therefore to be counted as a 3rd wave of a 5th down is pushing it. I\’m not ruling out that we\’re in the 5th down or forming an ED 5th, just saying your alternative is much alive and could mean a nearly vertical 200 pt move is around the corner or already began… not a forcast, just another line to consider on the roadmap.
HD, it looks like we either finished or are close to that the current down leg which started on Feb 13. I labeled it c or alt 3: http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3660/3305277948_e7385a7536_o.jpg If we are in 5-wave move since Feb 10, then wave 4 and wave 5 have to follow. But I think downside potential is limited and we are still in wave B since Jan 6.
HD, in wave 3 of A tech was last to start and bottomed later and deeper. Tony\’s weekend comments awhile back indicated that they may not set new lows this time around. Your guess is as good as mine. I\’m targeting NDX at 1075 for now, spx 680.
Didn\’t Arch Crawford mention Feb 23rd 4 something?
I\’m thinking tech is a better short now. Q\’z still 12% from it\’s lows while SPY and DIA are obviously not. VXN lower than VIX, cheaper puts and more to fall- what am I missing? Any thoughts?
anybody got a count on spot Gold ? where is Gold heading, take a rest before breaking 1000 convincingly, or jst completed a major B and now into a major C towards 700 again ?
Lee, MM manipulated me out of my SSO..LOL!
manipulate away MM\’s
keepin ur powder dry ..smart
Just noticed that the p/c ratio on my trading screen for DIA just went up….that probably means that this upside is being driven by the MMs to position for the additional puts that were put on.
just a spectator right now with puts
get ur upside #s ready
Time to poke around for a long trade here where went long yesterday, hitting bids in that area….fertile fishing
Come on Serg..out with your rumors
zzzzz
flat
or bail on any weakness..http://cid-f6590b6c36711e21.skydrive.live.com/self.aspx/New%20folder/cash.jpg
Stench> I don\’t think a trigger is needed to cause the market to make a bottom. In March 2003 the market bottomed a few days before the Iraq war started. After the markets had fallen significantly, in Europe the FTSE fell to 50% of its former highs and had fallen 8 days in a row. From that point on, the market went up and up. I argued at the time that this move up was as a result of a completed Elliott wave pattern, a deeply over-sold situation and the hitting of certain market levels, rather than the Iraw war outbreak, which later followed.
looking to sell when cash is near 760
STENCH….good question. Simple answer is when we complete W3 down, W4 up;then another 5 waves down should do it…Tony, really has dobe a fine piece of work, in being flexibleto recognize the DJI alternate pattern was working. andhis target range is darn good also I feel.The B wave up will be a great trade to 1100-1179.Watch it unfold….
There is no doubt that this is an extremely weak market. What I am wondering is this; What will it take to get primary B(up) going??I think it would have to be something that makes the shorts cover for some reason. Maybe something like the uptick rule back or whatever. I am guessing once B starts, it will be quick and shoot straight up sort of thing(like shorts forced to cover). Then it will die quick and C will be NASTY.Just a random thought, good trading to all,Stench
Bud, I agree with Rich, we have more down side, RSI – 29.19 last wave 3-3 was 23. So if we have pullback should short. This is wave 3 and it has to be very very oversold
Ref. EWI and Pretcher. This months EWT has advised moving out of shortposition on Monday. No, Pretcher is not saying the market will not fall further.But that is his recommendation.Egold. Looks good to me. I am making plans to buy BGU below 18…RICH…once again I enjoy your charts…
Well, my low target of 785 for today got hit during the European market. We\’re getting oversold but not enough to even think this wave 3 is in its final stages. If we rally tomorrow, 770-790 should hold it back. But during a wave 3, all rally bets are off (as shown in today\’s action). Selling has yet to accelerate as we are still nicely in the channel. Until we break it to the downside, we won\’t see a sustained bull rally.http://ew-indextrader.blogspot.com/
BTW, it is just a trade. We\’ll see..
Hi no name, let\’ see if they are right. I am trading based on the trend lines, channels, and a couple of indicators http://u8afaq.blu.livefilestore.com/y1pqyKTLgxUFsKraTiUSPX8haRjw8713Kfg_ijUDwSuBohoTbsSKCmjyFXo7mt6rodY96EkERP18tl-ktFMsyRMrg/ES.jpg . Tomorrow is BUY DAY according to Taylor Trading Technique (google it if you are interested) we may get a dip first in the AM. GL.
Bud, howz is this one http://elliotwavemaneuvering.blogspot.com/2009/01/pivot-for-wave-5.html (Jan 20, 2009)
Ref…SP500. a minute up/down movement maybe needed to finish W3. I like Tonys suggest fib levels 725-680…
Serg what\’s the word on the street
Lee and I3 may have caught it with their earlier comments. I wish I had seen it before the close. EWT\’s call to close out short positions should make for an incredible rally tomorrow.
Daneric put up a good chart on the Q\’s. The SPX is about the same as I see it. http://www.stocktock.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/nas151.png
Anybody hearing anything? Any wierd rumors or regular rumors? I think we about to experience a period of great volatility.
HD, I\’ll pick up some oil towards the end of 5 if it looks right. Most of the reasons that guy cites are poor from an internal logic standpoint but I agree in the price rally.
HD, I think oil is in direct correlation with SPX. So I am going to keep a long oil position only after SPX will show the end of wave 5.But I bought small QM 04-09 position EOD, because: 1. Roll-over is finished, 2 Light down volume. 3. The move 41.5 – 38.0 looks like as 5 wave impulse.
I am Just lovin it!
Serge, I think your count is wrong. On my count we have finished (or almost finished) wave 3 of 5. I am expecting next move to 789 area for wave 4, then to Tony\’s target 717 – 680. Also, Silver in rollover mode now, and I think this is the end of wave 3. I am expecting that Silver and SPX will do 4th waves next 2 days. Because platinum is a leader, it started wave 4 four sessions ago.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/121937-12-reasons-i-m-still-buying-oil
We are fu**ed… time for government to monitize our debt… Fisher say we won\’t but that\’s BS, they going to do it…http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Feds-Fisher-backs-buying-long/story.aspx?guid=%7B7AC47F89%2DC38C%2D4A8D%2DA196%2DA84BB299DD6D%7D&dist=hplatest
Hi!Been leaning on the DOW count for a while now.It suggested a final wave down to complete A.The DOW is still the US market.
Tony, You still think we are in Primary wave A? Mchugh Seems to think we are about to start wave C up of an ABC correction before we get wave C down. When did you change your count? Thanks again
LOL I3 !!!
MF Global, economists and Pimco address news headlines of the day. Scroll down to bottom of post.http://blog.donnaklinenow.com/?p=936
because we know a big order is coming in! : )
I3,Can u believe all the front runners on the futures close..:0