SHORT TERM: downtrend makes slightly lower lows, DOW -427
Overnight the Asian markets ignored the rally in the US yesterday and were mostly lower. Europe opened lower and closed -4.85%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 the CPI was reported to have dropped 1%, the largest monthly drop on record. The Core CPI turned negative for the first time since 1982 at -0.1%. Also at 8:30 Housing starts reportedly dropped to 791K v. 828K, this is the lowest level since 1959. At 9:00 the FED vice chairman Kohn’s speech was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/kohn20081119a.htm. The market bounced around at the open and moved higher to SPX 864. It then pulled back to 850 by 10:00, and rallied to its high for the day at SPX 867 nearing 10:30. After that there was a sharp selloff to SPX 827, yesterday’s lows, by 12:30. The market bounced to 840 by 1:00, and then made at low at 822 right after the FOMC minutes were released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20081029.htm. A rally attempt followed, but by 3:00 the SPX hit 836 and then headed lower hitting SPX 806 nearing the close. The downtrend continues, and the DOW closed under 8,000 for the first time since March 2003. At the close the SPX/DOW were -5.60%, and the NDX/NAZ were -6.20%. Bonds were up 1 point again today, Crude slipped $1.25, Gold dropped $5.75 and the Euro was lower. Tomorrow, weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, then the Philly FED along with Leading indicators at 10:00. Friday is options expiration. Support for the SPX drops to 789 and then 768, with resistance at 848 and then 912. Short term momentum was oversold at the close.
We now have double positive divergences on the hourly charts, and divergences on every time frame in the major indices. The pivot at SPX 789 should provide the low for this downtrend, unless of course, these divergences fail. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend makes new low at SPX 806
LONG TERM: bear market
KankiIf we see a sharp rally to 900, use the opportunity to get out.
Hi Tony Louise Yamada is talking about 13 – 16 year bear markets citing 1929-42 etc.If that were the case from 2000, is it possible we would not see the end until 2013-16?Thank you.http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vRDU42uJ9mSo.asfCharles Nenner in an old video from Oct predicting a cycle low 3rd week in Nov.
Hi Joe,
I\’ve never seen anything like this, and I\’ve been involved in the markets since the 1960\’s.
Certainly there is a lot of bad debt out there now, and de-leveraging is going on.
But the credit spreads that are being created, and have been driving this market lower, are not even realistic by any measure.
In a typical bear market, companies are singled out and their stock is driven down.
In this bear market, companies are singled out and then bankrupted.
And it is all being done with the derivatives markets.
In the 1980\’s we all laughed how the tail (stock derivatives) was wagging the dog (market). This led to the stock market crash.
Now the credit derivatives are destroying the economy. When will they figure this out?
There is only one segment of the investor arena that has the clout to do this, and benefit: hedge funds.
Prechter and company is certainly getting the action of a C wave. Kudos to them!
Cycle wave I of a new Supercycle certainly didn\’t start in 2002. Dunce cap for me!
Naturally, I\’ve reviewed the entire Supercycle bull market from 1932.
Will post my findings soon.
For now, the objective has been to stay liquid or hedged. Its been a bear market.
If the market continues to tank, the bear should be over by 2009.
If we get a strong rally, like a Primary B, it won\’t end till 2010.
good luck!
tony
My mother told me not to do stocks today. She said that the last time we crashed in October. What does that mean? 1 – 2 days and we\’re going to see a massive bounce. I bought some at the close. Good luck, we\’re all gonna need it.
To All: Wish to thank all of you for your comments today.
624 and then 450 next year.
egoldspot you were right on Yesterday. Things could not be dimmer than how it closed today, big volume closing at the bottom. 709 is quiet probable now. Well 50% of my 401K is averaged at 850, it will take few Years if it comes back.
My call on SPY and puts on bond are also in sad state but at least they are options on much money on them.
This market now is not playable.
Hi Tony,Hope you are doing good! Brutal market….With today\’s close, wouldnt your count of 2002 being Supercycle low be ruled out?I know your count is 2003-2007 bull market being an imopulsive move, but looking at the ferocity of this selloff, could it possible that this is C wave that many are postulating (with 2002-07 being B wave). Also, the events happening right now seems to be 100 year events…. For an investor like me, better if this turned out to be C wabe than an A wave….Thanks,Joe
Hmm, I\’ve started the first of my long positions…..gonna add more tomorrow! So far so good. Snitzled a little MSFT & will add at $16.50 tomorrow.
Tony, 2002 looks baby pattern in front of this Monster
Kanki, wait until 709 to refill
Cheers GKM !!!
Good I kept the printing on
GKM thanks owe you this one 
Holy moly 3 is on
I think this not going good, Market\’s world over are doomed
holy moly, 2002 as lee said was puppet
Sounds like an infomercial Serg
Pritned some fast money after that 5 pt fiasco
look at 10 year .lowest in 50 years
2002 lows just a blip away
flat and stupid..
uh that would be LOUD… nevermind
I hear u load and clear GKM.. thanks as always
Lee, I\’m not so sure. At best we\’ve got a flat so lower lows required. We keep dancing too close to the edge and one slip …………………
watching 15 min bar close…
Switching to shorts no option, follow money
normal last hour action….I just love a good squeeze thats all…
later u ass kickin shorts Ill be in the weeds
Watch yourselves. Atilla just called for S&P under 700 possibly this aft and is this fractal is playing out the same then we may have another cascade equal to this morning.
This is not good that we didn\’t pop. May be tomorrow is 3 down. I got stopped out
nope
down from pivot
cmon just one big pop..just 1
RBE unleaded gas 100.29 low 2 day yowsa
How bad can it get? This bad?http://www.infowars.com/?p=5938
should find out whats going on here soon
Chrys,I am sitting tight for options expiration.The market has tended to move sideways on options expiration day for the last couple of months.Also the IV (Implied volatility is extremely high), which makes the price of the option very expensive to enter. It also means that you need larger moves in the stock to make money. I am playing the DDM, DXD (2x Dow) which will give you comparable payouts with easier entry, exit points.
worth a shot I guess it stopped at 9225 in ESZ .382 from 2 days low
big ole scratch not short though..good news 4 shorts
well said egold….stealing chickens
do you see a head and shoulder?
GKM, playing suqeeze not trend
Hope it works 
u guys r killing me …Eagle thinks Im a moron …Now u and MCK spooking it…nice
That fractal looks exactly like the one before it on the 1 minute chart
and is the same fractal that got us to where we are today. I\’d say
that doesn\’t bode well.
MCK…Ur a party pooper
Egold…Maybe we\’ll catch a runner..who knows
To look at going short, though…..
I\’m waiting for a breakdown from the MSFT triangle mainly because it has formed immediately below that tough area from yesterday. Would prefer to see in inverse h&s or inverse dome for the turnaround.
Lee bought some with tight stop
of -5
Im trying a small long
would u guys buy the pivot again if reached?
The astronuats waiting for this rocket to launch to get their another set of toolbox
As market was in fulling station for like 2 hrs now.
yea I know…I suck…
Sorry dude but u posted it
How are people playing Options Expiration?
Am I going to see historic rocket or not?
Long from 775.00. To answer your question Lee, always leave a runner when you\’re sure of the trade. From your question, I can tell you don\’t know how to day-trade. Guess, we all learn something from each other.
Citi asks lawmakers to re-instate ban on shortselling financials.
watch if you have SKF
MSFT in perfect equil triangle on 3 min intraday….
Beware of squeeze!
egoldspot, the other consideration is 2 triangles in a row is continuation but by the time you start looking for a third, it\’s time for the turnaround…….
that was a quick 20 handles im flat ..see yas after 200 CT
oh BABY
theyll decide in DEC !!!???
there holding off on auto deal
Mckennedy, yes, but i am just wondering, we had 120 pt rally before that.
yes sir…
obviously, the important take-away was that the market kept going down!
Leading diagonal below another leading diagonal, seems similar pattern occured a month or so back.
Can\’t remember though when
I\’m getting dizzy with all this jumping around……
short E!
Market is on "E" now?
thanks gents
I3, thanks for the clip. I\’ll check it out after work.A=C at 819. The time of A equaled the time of C. Kind of unusual for time to be the same in a correction.
looked like it to me. also was at that area that was so hard to break thru to the downside yesterday.
u go back in a time machine Eagle? or did u get long again and p&s it?
was that 3 waves up from 2 days low?
trying a small short here
Long from 775.00
Puddy, Chrys
The counts go on…
If we are in \’d\’ of an abcde down from 1008, termination at ~762 results in:
1044-762 ~ 1.38 of 839 to 1044 (B ~1.38 A with a C wave up to follow; some from of irregular correction to compete 4)
Also, \’c\’ (1008-762) of the B wave ~ 1.23 \’a\’ (1044 to 844).
The 817 SPX now is ~ .38 retrace of the move down from 865 to 778.
GKM, there are many sexy bald dudes with hot babes…http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=148349&title=very-mad-money
Interesting time relationship if A=C from 2000-2008(9) ABC from 2000. A=C at 777
Sell the news should enter into this auto bill uptick at some point here…….
Pop was automaker loans going through. Above 823 should be a \’real\’ rally.
LOL, I was not aware of the pop while screen printing…
we\’ll see
http://forkoholic.com/images/spxfork112008b.jpg
rumour of auto bill passing it seems
Chrys, it\’s still a possibility. I could set the upside target at 830-840 or so for the end of D. We\’ve got a whole bunch of time to put in while we stagger lower though.I3, I prefer be known as a skinhead in training. Is that wrong?
Otherwise its just an ABC up. 4 of 5 of C of A or various other counts and diagonals.
dude, or is it impulsive?
this is what I have..A bounce, perhaps…The trend is still down..http://www.flickr.com/photos/30240833@N03/3045528445/sizes/o/
~820 if C=A
Interesting. May get our squeeze out of this yet…
Forgot to mention…I keep track of some really long term Fibs. 789 (Tony\’s pivot) is the 50% RT from 1932 low to 2007 high. You would think we could get a little bounce of that.
GKM – have you given up on the Declining Wedge from 1007? I\’ve still got my lines constructed but with every new low it\’s getting pulled apart.A 1007 – 818 (abc)B 819 – 916 (abc)C 916 – 777 (abc)D in progressmuch below todays lows without touching 835, I will give up and go to the 1,2, i, ii scenario.
back to Tonys pivot 789
Palroy, recount to 3 of 5 starting at 865. Current action would be 3 of 3 of 5 -or- 5 of 5.
5 of 5 would allow not breaking 2002 lows significantly.
Just a possible count.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/TECH/space/11/18/endeavour.spacewalk/index.html
Here ya go…
absolutely I3 Tony rocks it!
Chop is now in session
Another 2 hr will be boring, anyone about astronuat losing their toolbox?
is salt an pepper still in style?
I rather have gray than being a baldy! : )
haha…you are a kidder!
Easier just to pull it out.