SHORT TERM: choppy session as FED cuts rates to 1.0%, DOW -74
Overnight the Asian markets were mostly higher, Europe opened higher and closed with the FTSE +8.0% and the DAX down slightly. US index futures moved higher overnight but turned lower in the morning. At 8:30 Durable goods orders were reported +0.8% vs -5.5%. At the open the SPX traded down to 929 in the first few minutes, then rallied to 945 by 10:00. Another pullback to 929 followed by 11:00, and this time the SPX challenged the 961 pivot when hitting 955 at 1:30. Then awaiting the FED’s FOMC announcement the market started to pullback again. After the FED announced a 1/2% rate cut to 1.0%, it’s lowest level since June 2003, the pullback retested the 935 pivot for the third time today when hitting 928 by 2:30: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20081029a.htm. A quick rally followed to SPX 970 by 3:30 and then the market pulled back sharply into the close. For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.95%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.40%. Bonds were down 4 ticks, Crude rallied $5.50, Gold added $11.50 and the Euro was higher. Support for the SPX slips to 912 and then 848, with resistance at 935 and then 961. Short term momentum was overbought at the highs but finished at neutral. Tomorrow Q3 GDP, and the weekly unemployment report at 8:30. Also a speech by FED governor Kroszner at 8:30.
After today’s rally to SPX 970, the probabilities are increasing that the downtrend ended with a 5th wave diagonal triangle at yesterday’s SPX 845 low. The DOW has already exceeded that short term quadruple top between Oct 17-21, when the SPX was hitting 985. Also, commodities have now rallied three days in a row for the first time since September. A rally in this asset class would help the stock market. Major support is now at SPX 912. A break below this pivot and the market enters the vacuum again between SPX 848 and 912. Should this level hold we may experience an uptrend for the first time since August’s SPX 1313. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend low SPX 840
LONG TERM: bear market, SPX 912 important pivot
I was trying to fit Tim Bost\’s projection into the current fork
and it looks like perfect fit
assuming
1) we will not go UP tomorrow
2) his targets are correct.
http://forkoholic.com/images/SpxBostFit103008.jpg
MT
interesting u can\’t do this count on SPX wave 2 gets lower than 1
Election triangle?
http://i366.photobucket.com/albums/oo106/mtcharts/slide0001_image002-1-1.jpg
Could be, but I think w5 is the end of wave A and now we are already in C. I don\’t know what we are going to see if C is complete.
It could mark a larger {A} of a , then we are already underway in Tony\’s B, or the end of the so expected wave 4 (election zigzag), wich could bring us down deep and low.
MT, 3 of 5 is marked as 5 top. I think 4 & 5 is still pending, so tomorrow up and end of wave 1.
5 waves up complete:
http://i366.photobucket.com/albums/oo106/mtcharts/slide0001_image002.jpg
I think our Stu is the best,
better than Neely, McHugh and Prechter combined.
Based on today\’s computer program, the pattern I match to for tomorrow!
Tomorrow we will touch 1000
Tomorrow will be gap up, Sell in to opening, then waitfor market to reach some retracement, buy again, then sell towards the EOD of or at your comfort.
Climax, Going to end buy inverse as Monday gap down
Let\’s watch Tiger
mms://70.84.37.42/tfnnmms://75.125.68.40/TFNN-Radio
Relax, I\’m subscriber no more.
Neely sucks anyway.
GKM wins my vote for best looking charts! very nice. 1024 =3.382, 1074 still on my radar.
Typo, should be — yes, there is freedom of speech….
Serg…..Duh….that may not be 100% correct. yes, there is freedom
of special. but, unless you are clear on copywrite laws. you might
consider what you print.
true. I do not know of a market letter writer, who has pressed the copywrite
issue…
and we know you get the public info for Neely, and that is fine.
stay cool my ruskie friend…
DiamondProjects to 1045 if we break to the upside.
Kevin is correct. I wouldn\’t worry about saying "Neely is short" or "McHugh thinks we\’re in Wave 5 down to 700." Mentioning what those guys are thinking is certainly good for their business so I suspect they appreciate it. However, I doubt they want their subscriber emails pasted on a public website so just keep it general and they\’ll be happy.
October 2008 Interview with Glenn eelyhttp://www.neowave.com/company-oct2008interview.asp
I agree with egoldspot. I do not want my mistake to place Tony nor this site at risk. It\’s one thing to talk in generalalities about what pretcher, neely or mchugh are thinking. But pasting a reco directly is going too far. I apologize.
I like all of the sharing of ideas here and even the bantering back & forth. Back to the market… I\’m short going into tomorrow.
Wow. Should we expect anything less these days? The EDT downside projection 937-939 was met and then SPX nearly took out the EDT high before falling back a few points. Now, my indicators look like they could go either way on a gap tomorrow. Dangerous both ways. I\’ve got 2 trend lines around 940 tomorrow morning and you\’ve got 958, 963 and 970 above. Good luck.
Serg, you\’re the worst offender. You obviously don\’t know the laws, breaking it will get you in trouble.
Hello….I got the message on Neely info. I shall stop…
Don\’t freakin talk about law, this is wallstrip…do we have to remind how insider trading/dark pools work
For all those who did loose on plumbing advice. For Neely, if you good ppl will pay don\’t try to enforce! Believe in yourselfPlease do not post any copyrighted work. As this blog will be in trouble of shutdown. Rather post your views 
>Ya, copying and pasting for free what others pays for, for the sake of profit is copyright violation. Duh.
It\’s called freedom of speech. He pays for it he posts it.
A gap down tomorrow is possible so it\’s dangerous to hold long IMHO. Could be a bunch of 1-2s in the last 20 minutes. Just risky is all I\’m saying.
As per today program trade, I think tomorrow will be gap up day!
Emerging market play I like
and holding some
Should say 937 to close the day. 935 right now.
On my 1min chart, I show the uptrend line from 845 at about 837 to close the day.
Now this program, brings to my mind that, participants who were sitting on cash, have entered market. Meaning money made to work
CNBC just mentioned possibilities for bankruptcies in the shipping sector for whoever is playing that space……
I assume we\’d have a drop at the open in the morning? thoughts?
This program indicate that hedge funds were long, buying dip and selling later.But holding minimum overnite. This type was usual last year before this fiasco.
The 20dEMA on SPX is 969. Failed to even get to that level let alone hold it.
Still holding the trendline from 845. How much longer? I\’m flat as I can be.
You\’re right about the copyright violation. I would not appreciate it if I was neely. sorry.
Unethical practices are what got us into this financial disaster, similar to how Wall Street takes bailout money and bonuses it to themselves despite financial armageddon. Egold if you want to leech, you are what\’s wrong with America.
Doing the right thing starts with you.
Ya, copying and pasting for free what others pays for, for the sake of profit is copyright violation. Duh.
egoldspot,i also noticed it today!! 3:15 computer starts selling SPY….. or futures. very interesting. i was watching the 1min chart and it was just obvious…
The 17 point drop in minutes was the largest, swiftest move in hours confirming an EDT and suggesting the up move was corrective while the down move was impulsive. The triangle breakdown at 950-952 may be retested…scratch that, is being retested. Wrong above 957.
egoldspot, how did you spot that computer program is selling?why another at 3:30 ?Thanks.
Plumbing forecast are copyrighted
new to me 
infact are those forecast?
I guess I don\’t need to subscribe to Neely since you all post his forecasts here in copyright violation, I might add.
The EDT C from 929 would be officially complete if SPX stays below 963 and drops below 944-945 with projection to retrace at least back to its base at 937-939 and likely begin another 5 waves down marking wave C/3.
Computer program 3:15 is selling, so expect another sell at 3:30
ALL TRADERSImmediately exit ALL Long positions at the market (currently at 930, which is 12 points higher than our stop). This will lock in a great profit for Daily and Weekly traders and cause about a 27 point loss for Hourly traders. The S&P\’s inability to reach 1050 by this morning finally confirms, unfortunately, that October\’s low is only temporary and will be broken in 1-2 months. This means we will need to get defensive again, looking to hedge stock portfolios on rallies or try to make money on declines by selling the futures in advance. Today\’s lackluster action also confirms the economy, the stock market and the financial system are in terrible shape and will continue to deteriorate. Make sure to take appropriate action to protect you, your family and your loved ones.Good luck,Glenn NeelyNEoWave, Inc.
Thanks to all for your replies.
Seems the little guys have been palying Tug-of-War today (light volume).
I wonder if the big guys will generate a big move before the close?
short
Today\’s volume is VERY light !!!
dkpa1, that wasn\’t egold who thinks we still have Wave 5 left to go that would be me, obvious egold thinks the primary wave A is done.
I\’m in cash until Monday perhaps.
dkpa1, Dude forget past, low is in, buy when we retrace 0.682, 0.50 of levels from 985. Mean time this is range trade it
dxpa1 - Neely is in cash….
It\’s possible the last C move up could morph into an EDT to 955-960. Below 944 would eliminate that chance. Still, 963 is key.
egold:
You just hit on exactly what has been troubling me… Where was our new low? Where is the extended decline and fearful capitulation? Maybe I am too dense to \’see\’ that 840 was IT, but it still nags at me.
SPX move up from 929 currently looks like an abc zigzag, then an x-wave followed by an abc flat with c=1.62xA into 954ish. 955 is also a .764 retrace of 963–>929. 963 is my stop.
Any new Neely update?
Dimanond can go either way
http://thepatternsite.com/diamondt.html
I think, big move other day was window dressing rally. They didn\’t want GDP to
kill them. So now they just need to hold the market as is. So don\’t expect move big in either direction just trade range. But biased towards shorts
Me too, short.
It\’s a little risky but a short at 950-953 could be good with stop above 963.
GKM,
ADX 15 min falls below 30 – no trend yet – sideways
The issue is tomorrow is window dressing, but market looks to give a small boost up and then fall! so be careful
Needs to pick a direction in the next half hour based on time of the diamond. Break out could be violent.
egoldspot
it looks more like H&S
is jobs report tomorrow?
We have one more ending diagonal, as someone pointed out
I think the only reason we\’re holding up at these levels is the expectation that tomorrow is the last day of the month and people expect a window dressing rally, so no one wants to get overly short here.
If this were a true Wave 3 of a of primary wave B, we should be blasting higher. Not this chop chop nonsense waiting for last day of the month window dressing rally.
More reason to think we\’re in a wave 4 triangle. Moreover, Primary Wave A never had its last wave 5. Either Elliot Wave is dead or we\’re still needing a Wave 5, even by 1-2 points below the last low to complete. Good luck all.
Serg, no idea. He has never said how he trades but the occassional charts he uploads he shows trendlines. He has been trading for 15 yrs so I have to think he uses something.
Elam
so what methodology he uses? looks like not EW
Thanks for the objective analysis, Tony. I find your pivots most useful.
Serg, Atilla called the Sep/Oct crash daily including the number of points ES will drop each day. He called that the bailout will fail initially and ES drop 100 points and then said another 100 on passage of the bailout. Then on 10/8 and 10/9 he said ES will drop 100 points. Basically he stayed short everyday in oct and covered at 840s and rode it to 1060 even calling the 1060 to the day it will happen. So suddenly he is the new trading GOD until his streak ends. Now he has followers from all over the world. He only trades ES and apparently is good at it. Claims he does not use EW but rather trendlines and sentiments.
This up move is beginning to look like a bear flag….
chickened out and took profits.
Excellent observation, GKM, on the potential diamond. That would tie a lot of loose ends together in my mind.
Spread retraces, we could poentially have another rally later in day! Tomorrow is window dressing
GKM, I agree. 950-952 or lower and then down is likely bearish. Need higher to get bullish on dips me thinks. Move down this morning looks like 5 waves, this up move looks like 3 waves so far stopping near the previous degree 4th wave with indicators looking like they want to roll over. Below 944 now could see a bounce but adds odds to the bearish side.
this rally sucks if this is wave 3 up for Primary wave B
Amos,
but you said Oct 30th will be the low
Possible diamond top on SPX. May be a number of sellers at 951.
Primary A may have ended on Oct 27, 2008. I feel it time to pickup some oversold stocks. God bless
Who the F is Atilla? and Y the F you listen to the guy?
Atilla M. Demiray said…
I dont know EW terms like flat or 5 of 7 or other stuff but from my observation, EW is not tradable without supportive study. Why Prechter is selling advisory service if he is filthy rich is out of my understanding…
SPX cycle projection
http://www.chartsedge.com/images/102808r.gif
???
I wonder if the SPX 1 min pattern from yesterday early a.m. (at about 930) can be considered a potential inverted H&S?
Yesterday\’s ~922 low would then be below the neckline and odd for such a pattern.
If an inverted H&S is forming with a downside break of 930; the pattern measures to ~ 890.
The sharp down in the final minutes yesterday bothers me…..doesn\’t seem appropriate for a market that supposedly is taking off in a new uptrend.
Yen crosses showing 5 down. May be part of a zig zag but hero\’s never prosper.
The market may be chopping out a top for the beginning of w5…….
Not sure but AAPL intraday beginning to look like a dome unless something changes here soon…..
Attilla sold his longs and went short. See post below:
I bought some more ES at 94 too…. I sold all of them at 950 (95)I didnt like what I sawYES YES YES I SOLD ALLI am also short from 950, small position for a day tradewe will probably scare retail today to make a bottom around 910-900
Yippie! I\’m a lucky boy, this time.
Stops set @ break even.
Even a nice H&S for the QQQQ
S2, agree, Looking for ~31 on the Q\’z for a 1-2 and we could get a nice upward 3 to >36. scaling in
Anybody else driving drybulks?
FYI – Atilla now short a \’small amount.\’
Likely, a good buy opportunity is fast approaching. However, there will be large danger soon. Why? Well, if this down move is wave 2, then a wave 3/C explosion could occur possibly waiting for another 1-2 up below 970 before a BIG move. However, if this move down marks the end of a running wave 4 flat into 970 which I consider a secondary alternate, then after the next wave 2 bounce, SPX should experience a wave 3 down. There could be some choppiness for these 1-2s between 910 and 970 to leave us guessing before it chooses another BIG leg in either direction within the next couple days maybe waiting for beginning of month.
Yesterday\’s CPC reading is doing its job and it is still extremely bullish today. ISE is somewhat bearish but not as extreme and that indicator works better if you see clusters over a few day or week period. Good luck.
Taking a small long here.
S2
S2
If you have time?
What is your take on today\’s very positive AD stats currently placing the McClellan Osc. >150?
Still more calls being purchsed at CBOE, but more naked puts shown by ISEE?
Thanks
If the SPX drop from 970 is a 1-2-1-2 so far, it projects to 912-927 for wave 3, then 908-916 or lower to finish 4-5-4-5.
If the SPX drop from 970 is a 1-2-3-4 so far, it projects to 931-941 with 919-921 possible.
If SPX exceeds 952 shortly, it will likely indicate an extended B from 922 or 1-2-1-2 from 970 is still finishing.
Given the downside EW projections, you can look for corroborating evidence, and Tony\’s 912 pivot, C=A at 916, yesterday\’s 922 low, trend line convergence at 915 by early afternoon and the 930 gap fill are all candidates in that range. I should add 940ish would make C=A*.618 for the most bullish scenario but we\’re already there so we\’ll know shortly.
yen cross on a tear downwards. market should turn down swiftly soon.
Spread broke this uptrend high since yesterday!