SHORT TERM: market continues bounce off 1261 pivot, DOW +90
Overnight the Asian markets were mixed, and Europe opened lower but closed mixed as well. At 8:30, July durable goods orders were reported +1.3% and June was upgraded to +1.3% as well. Yet both inventories and unfilled order rose 0.8%. The market opened relatively unchanged. After a dip to 1270 by 10:00 a rally followed. By 10:30 the SPX hit 1280, pulled back to 1274 in the next hour, and then rallied to 1285 by 1:00. After that the SPX moved lower, in a choppy fashion, into the close. For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.80%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.80%. Bonds gained about ten ticks, Crude added $2.00, Gold rose $4.00, and the Euro was higher. Support for the SPX remains at 1261 and then 1240, with resistance at 1287 and then 1316. Short term momentum was a bit overbought at today’s highs, and the near term indicators are on the rise again. Tomorrow, the weekly unemployment claims, and the first Q2 GDP revision at 8:30.
Since early August the SPX has pulled back to the 1261 pivot three times. Each time it has found support. The first launched the rally to the uptrend high at 1313. The second, last week, ended on friday at 1293. The third, this tuesday, has now rallied to 1285 thus far. Therefore we have successively lower highs, which would suggest a breakdown eventually. However, if this rally were to exceed the previous one at SPX 1293, then a retest of the highs is also possible. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend high at SPX 1313
LONG TERM: bear market
Hi,Do you need digital signages, advertising displays, digital sign, advertisement displays and advertising players? Please go Here:www.amberdigital.com.hk(Amberdigital).we have explored and developed the international market with professionalism. We have built a widespread marketing network, and set up a capable management team dedicated to provide beyond-expectation services to our customers.
amberdigital Contact Us
website:www.amberdigital.com.hk
alibaba:amberdigital.en.alibaba.com[bdhadccahhijgi]
Hi,Do you need advertising displays, digital signages, ad players, advertisement player and LCD advertisings? Please go Here:www.amberdigital.com.hk(Amberdigital).we have explored and developed the international market with professionalism. We have built a widespread marketing network, and set up a capable management team dedicated to provide beyond-expectation services to our customers.
amberdigital Contact Us
website:www.amberdigital.com.hk
alibaba:amberdigital.en.alibaba.com[beeaaibdgacjah]
egoldspot…..
There was an author on KFNN today at 2pm PDT which bascially that we
are in store for hyper inflaton as was experienced in 1978-1980 until
Paul Volker took the interest rates lower in August 1982. This was a Fed
tightening though. Inflation grew out of the 1970\’s as the cost
of the VN war ending 1975.
Sinclear Noe. Afternoon Review is on archive at KFNN 2pm
here is a link, author talks of hyperinflation very late this year.
Dow 16k plus
http://www.kfnn.com/ListenLive.asp
Hi Bud,
Waiting for the smoke to clear in the US first.
Since a 10% GDP growth rate in China means nothing to its market.
Hi Mckennedy,
That was Art Cashin, who is one of the only straight shooter reporters on the floor.
Hi egoldspot,
Posted an alternate count on the DOW a week ago last in the weekend report.
If SPX 1200 was the bottom, this has certainly looked ugly on the way up.
Investors should abandon defensive positions and broaden their portfolios to get a jump on the next U.S. bull market, Charlie Morris, head of Absolute Return HSBC Investments, told CNBC Wednesday.
Bolden news! MM\’s like the short skirts(some since 1200) ppl are wearing they wanna take it down and they themselves will wear it later (;
I had the chance to sell NQ at 1922 during my lunch break before leaving for outdoor activities.I\’m not complaining as I could have sold it 2 or 3 more times at the same price.
As per my count this is w3 and that it might go still more. Will wait for w4- retest to load up! and payday on W5
GKMAugust 28 4:28 PMWhere is Luis when you need him??? LOL Looks like you\’ve got some converts. Parle en francais si vous plait. Le français c\’est quoi ça, je ne connais pas cette langue.
Interesting, QQQQ gave back pretty much all the intra day gain after dell… SPY and IWM and DIA doesn\’t move much, maybe load up on some shorts?
I see lot of ppl uncommitted to position and take any position at this pt. So it means uncertainity or waiting for right time ahead
That\’s great Laurent! You Rock man!
Where is Luis when you need him??? LOL Looks like you\’ve got some converts. Parle en francais si vous plait. Or maybe there\’s a more bearish scenario than even Tony is envisioning that requires us to go higher to prepare?
What about this count:http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ebgK-vbW27o/SLcGlINUUYI/AAAAAAAAAhE/lTTyhycyeho/s1600-h/28-8b.JPGA complex triple zig zag correction from the 1200 low targeting 1313 before falling hard in late september (from valuearea.blogspot.com)? Does it makes sense?
Forgot to mention that I have no preferences as which direction the market should go, I just try to identify the clues that the market gives me and trade accordingly to that.
Well I guess my ES alternate scenario that I posted is unfolding
FNM up another 2.5%, on a pullback, I might buy this. FNM is behaving very well.
Serg you didn\’t answer my question? do you think this end of Bear?
Serg, I think it looks more like what happened the first week of June.
Wow…One more time:OEX ChartM Flavin @ Stock Charts
Cole, it reminded me May 2nd – then cycle top was due and we dropped
but got our top at May 19th
stu, 1298 goes out of window
>What do you mean Serg? we are @ end of Bear?Yes, Wave A end in December and we start wave B Up
you can call it a mini-Bull, oficcialy we\’re still in Bear til 2010-2012
Nope…http://i145.photobucket.com/albums/r221/metaphysixs/OEXChart.pngOr, all of M Flavin\’s charts are really good I think:http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2942501
[IMG]http://i145.photobucket.com/albums/r221/metaphysixs/OEXChart.png[/IMG]See if this works…
Too bad you can\’t post charts right into your comments via html.Here\’s the link: http://i145.photobucket.com/albums/r221/metaphysixs/OEXChart.png
I think the movement in the market looks a lot like this chart from M Flavin at StockCharts.com:<a href="http://s145.photobucket.com/albums/r221/metaphysixs/?action=view¤t=OEXChart.png" target="_blank"><img src="http://i145.photobucket.com/albums/r221/metaphysixs/OEXChart.png" border="0" alt="Oex Chart from M Flavin StockCharts.com"></a>Check it out.
The good part is let\’s say if we do reach w3 @ 13XX, and we get w5 also for same. We have double top. I mean bear for another year. And this bull market short lived as till date none of govt intervention has really worked in markets and infact more severe crunch?
Wow, FNM up another 1% since my prior post. I\’m tellin ya. just buy FNM.
Folks, just buy FNM and FRE into next week. You\’ll get rich. lol!
Dow has to close at/above 11740 (20wMA) by end of day tomorrow to make the bull case. 11621 is the 20 month MA so the Dow needs to close at/below that by tomorrow as well (since there is no trading on Monday) to preserve the bear case.
I hope I am not making a bad first impression with my
mild sarcastic comments. I find Tony’s work
very informative along with some others here.
Cheers, and best luck with your tradings..
FNM is up something like 80% in 1 week. Lol! all that taxpayer money, bailouts can really work wonders
MCKennedyWhatever happened to that guy on CNBC who said that 10 out of the last 11 years, this day traded down all day???!!Art Cashen…He likes to hear himself talks.
FWIW, DJIA is showing a H&S top if 11705 is the top with neckline at 11290. If that breaks, next stop is 10800.
This market since 2007 has not confirmed to norms. So past patterns will not stand. This means Sep is likely to be a big up month since the avg bear market, Sep is down 4%..I suspect that it will confound all bears and be up 4%. That puts it at 1350s.Let\’s see how this plays out. Time wise if we are really going lower, it has to happen soon because from 1350s there is not enough time to go to new lows and then rally by year end.
Ahhh, he got that out of the Trader\’s Almanac……
Tony, from your past experience and vast knowledge, do you think this look familiar to any bear market ending? Please enlightened us!
Whatever happened to that guy on CNBC who said that 10 out of the last 11 years, this day traded down all day???!!
MCKennedyIt\’s usually a good indicator when this board tends to start looking at the bull case……Shhhh…
Tony…..SSEC
I \’am now seeing the low of 8/19 of 2284….
I suspect the 2584 recent high on 8/20 might be interesting as
a trade.
Do you have a new market opinion on the SSEC ?
What do you mean Serg? we are @ end of Bear?
At the beggining of a Bear market sentiment is smooth – many participants – investors, institutions, traders buy and sell. At the end of a Bear many investors are on a sideline, volume is low and traders are in charge so we see more jerky moves up and down – sentiment gets screwed up a bit
I am worried that, sept 2 which is to be doom day might become short covering day with GSE news, market might welcome it?
AAPL totally fell out of bed on that push down…..
It\’s usually a good indicator when this board tends to start looking at the bull case……
I think we might close right at 1302-4
trend is maybe UP, if we follow similarities from December-January
http://paintfantasy.com/images/trends.jpg
Hate to spoil the bull party, but take a look at ISE. Over 180 all day. Likely to cool off but likely to end too bullish. It\’s been too bullish for a few days but there is often a 1-3 day delay on it and now it\’s even more bullish so expect a decent SPX drop at a minimum. ISE 150+ usually signals a top within hours if it closes that way. Of course, that\’s only 1 indicator. CPC is also too bullish today but not quite as extreme. My hourly RSI and W%R indicators are as oversold as the 1313 and 1293 tops. I got stopped out at 1287 but may re-enter soon (probably after Labor Day). EW also still allows the following bearish possibility, and a 37-pt move has not been attained yet (bullish number pattern since October).
1313–>1275 w1 (38 pts)
1275–>1302 w2
1302–>1261 i of w3 (41 pts)
1261–>1293 a of ii of w3 (32 pts)
1293–>1263 b of ii of w3 (30 pts)
1263–>1297 c of ii of w3 (34 pts making an abc flat)
Above 1302 eliminates this scenario and creates a 38+ point move (1302-1264=38), which is bullish by number pattern. Then, we\’d be left with the possibility of a 1200–>1313–>1261–>1327? abc or even a bullish pattern.
If the above bearish pattern holds true, what might price targets be? My 60min chart has shown a trend line cluster for days at 1280ish Fri/Mon so that\’s a consideration especially since the 1440-1313-1293 trend line breakout is likely to be retested and now there is a gap to fill at 1281. Beyond that, with wave i being 41 points and wave ii retracing so deeply, wave iii would likely equal 1.5-2x wave 1 at 62-82 pts. 1296-(62 to 82)=1214 to 1234. Wave 1 and wave i took about 3 days. Being more points, wave iii could take a little longer so we could estimate 3-5 days. 1280 could end up being a pivot point at some point Mon/Fri with 1214-1234 possible by end of next week. Of course, 1302 needs to hold (preferably 1297 but my 1-min count allows for 1 more push to 1300), the 1440 trend line has to be broken back down and 1260s support still needs to be broken as confirmations. Above 1302, and I\’ll move on and make a more detailed analysis for the abc 1327 pattern and bullish patterns. Good luck.
Also, second thing that I can think about is, EW is behavioural i.e more participants better results.
With vacation there are not many participants and so EW count for bear is off? anybody can trace this back.
okay, thanks Jack. Cobra is a good technical analyst.
Sue, I didn\’t bash any indicators, I just wanna say NO indicator is perfect, pure and simple. Yes, I did expect SPX went up on around 08/14-15 to reach 132x level. I was wrong; I guess I am the only one who makes mistakes in trading.No, I won\’t buy at this level; actually I sold all longs yesterday @ close; too bad I missed today\’s rally. It could be the climax run if market continues to rally tomorrow and Tue; but those rallies can kill lots of top-guessers, especially if they trade futures.
BTW as we broke above red trendline today and if we keep doing it
it might suggest be take less devastating blue path, more confirmation is needed
http://paintfantasy.com/images/SpxRedOrBlue.jpg
market is blasting off but $vix showing 19.41 didn\’t even break yesterday low?
Is it my data mess up or is $VIX not moving at all today?! What happen to $VIX?
hey, 2nd flag worked too! nice!
Great Jack…go long here. I could really care less.
I hate it when people bash useful indicators saying they know it all and don\’t offer any alternatives. Okay, you\’re so smart, Jack- not. Remember a couple Friday\’s ago when you said the market would go up and we went down significantly? Ya, uh-huh. Anyway.
This guy is pretty good.http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449
Wave theory is not wrong, count has changed, Govt intervention can do anything. 1200 looks to be bottom
He uses Fork indicator, he just doesn\’t admits it
Well Jack, what additional indicators do you use?
Many many midterm indicators haven\’t fired up SELL signal yet. As matter of fact, many of them are still neutral or BUY. Currently they just don\’t support SPX will drop big right away.I think SPX 1313 will be broken if today\’s close is not too ugly.Wave theory certainly is wonderful, but it\’s not perfect at all. Wave counters\’d better use it with other indicators together. btw, RSI, MACD divergence is not enough. Speaking of fake rally, how many of wave counters counted that fake Spring rally correctly beforehand? As far as I could tell, there were so many stop-loss….
Cole, I got stopped out, and I\’m glad, because the shorts I was holding are significantly cheaper now, so I can jump back in at a cheaper price.
another flag forming?
http://paintfantasy.com/images/spxforking082808e.jpg
Wow, I really was not expecting this move to be so strong, but when I look at the charts for the SPX, you can see that the market has a pretty strong rally before it drops.This rally today hurt me pretty good, but I am going to take my lumps and hang in here. I don\’t trade futures, so I will take the paper loss today. In my opinion, I am seeing and hearing some capitulation from the bears, which is exactly what the bulls want to see before the market rolls over. As far as spy 135 or 134, I just don\’t see it. The technical damage done to the market over the last 2 weeks exposed this BEAR market rally. If we were in a bull market, then absolutely, you would have to cover. But since we are in a bear market, just one strong down day and you can recover, and re-evaluate. The worst thing that can happen is if you sell here, take your hit, and then go long right before the market rolls lower. I am holding my shorts, because time and again, I have been able to take the paper loss, and at the very least recover 70% or so of my losses by not selling. All the technical signals we have are real. Stay strong if you can, and avoid the whipsaw. The market is not pricing in the hurricane or the economic situation here and volume is very light. I am still anticipating a strong sell off. I know popular literature tells you to cut your losses, but sometimes it\’s better to hold and recover. That\’s what I will be doing, because I\’m calling bull$hit on this rally.
AAPL broke N/L with volume
Big Picture – two forks up ahead may provide some resistance
http://paintfantasy.com/images/spxforking082808d.jpg
AAPL broke the neckline of the dome; looks like SPX now peaking
Guys, I would have sworn that market will go down today. But, this what it is!
Wave 1= 1200-1313 = 113
Wave 2= 1313-1261 = 52
Wave 3= 1261-13XX =
wave 1 of 3 = 1261-1284
Wave 2 of 3 = 1284-1264
wave 3 of 3 = 1264-1304 (currently going on)
Yesterday was a crossing over between wave 3 down to wave 3 up! current wave 3 is impluse
I am bull for short term now. Will wait for wave 4 to load up!
Nothing\’s fake in the market. +$10 or -$10 in your account if you\’re on the right or wrong side is nothing fake.This could be either an: a-b-c correction and we go down tomorrow, or we\’re in wave 3 up, with iv and v up left to complete on wave 3. Volume is still low on the upswings.I\’m on the sidelines and just watching the market.
"for backtesting my theory.
I can\’t review zillion EWs by hand"What is your theory? Without even backtesting, I can probably tell you whether something will work or not based on my 20 plus years using Elliott wave and technical analysis.
"for backtesting my theory.
I can\’t review zillion EWs by hand"What is your theory? Without even backtesting, I can probably tell you whether something will work or not based on my 20 plus years using Elliott wave and technical analysis.
what\’s the chances that this is a fake breakout? same seemed to happen at end of Feb \’08.
We\’re really overbought, so I\’m expecting some sort of a pullback either before the close or tomorrow. Not sure how big of a pullback, but enough to make money off of.
wave charts – for backtesting my theory.
I can\’t review zillion EWs by hand
"we need like 70% accuracy or better. With such large sampling of datathe errors will we irrelevant"You don\’t need Elliott wave for that. Standard technical analysis and good money management will do better than 70 percent.IMO Elliott wave is best used for discerning intermediate and long term patterns and trends. Short term patterns are much too variable.
XLFIV yikes! open interest destroyed. Time to join the party? This could be the real deal. Think I\’ll go play golf for a few days and avoid any mistakes. peace!
Elam, but you\’re short right now, so wouldn\’t that be painful?
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:flag_pennant
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:flag_pennant
Sue I do think we see 1320-1330 now next week. Only way this changes is if Gustav is another Katrina.
http://paintfantasy.com/images/spxforking082808c.jpg
We\’re seeing some serious short covering now that we\’ve broken 1293
target 1300?
looks like it was classic pennant pattern
>a nuke could go up in NYC and markets would still be up. Nuke produces electromagnetic impulse – Wall Street computers will be fried in that case.
so no, markets can not possibly be UP
>a nuke could go up in NYC and markets would still be up. Nuke produces electromagnetic impulse – Wall Street computers will be fried in that case.
so no, markets can not possibly be UP
Elam, good call on today\’s market action. Do you see us going down from here? Or up tomorrow, last day of the month? Thanks.
Someone asked me why would markets be up today on a SIGNIFICANTLY upwards revised GDP. Well there you have your answer. I guess on any given day given set up, a nuke could go up in NYC and markets would still be up. For example a hurricane with Cat 3 or 4 strength is headed to GOM on Monday and oil is down $3 today. Any explanation for that?
Serg, thanks!
I don\’t know about higher levels next week…AAPL looks like it\’s putting in a dome on the 1 minute chart, leaving the intraday island reversal in place (so far has peaked at $176.25, short of closing the gap). If so, todays highs should mark the reversal of the up trend.
Sue, I\’ve posted Numbers table couple of weeks ago from Greenblat\’s book "Predict any market" (or something like that)http://paintfantasy.com/images/numbers1.jpg
Sure hope fearless leader doesn\’t want to play games with Russia. This is probably mostly fake but don\’t want to find out>http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eMniVgLBkyM&feature=related
CT, we need only completed waves – it is backtesting afterall
but it will be time consuming and or big computing power might be needed.sounds like a job for MIT guys
Serg, thanks. I\’ll have to look into Lucas. btw, I was stopped out of my overnight shorts. TTT said today 94%-100% probability of going to 1259 today starting at the open, way off. How TTT can give a 100% probability to any number is beyond me.
….. HD, agree, expect nothing and always be prepared for the opposite. Thanks again.
I am sure it was probably me that did not understand what you were saying Surg.
"CT, either I\’m not getting what u telling me or you not getting what I\’m telling u"
As far as Elliott Wave lebeling. I agree with the person who says that the human eye is better than software. Although I like RET as they use millions and millions of historical patterns to identify the most likely wave completions. Even Elliott wave theory has multiple count outcomes meaning they don\’t know the exact forecasted pattern until it is completed.
oops I mean Western Europe, not Eastern Europe