SHORT TERM: market holds support closes mixed, DOW +27
Overnight the Asian markets were mostly lower following the selloff in the US yesterday. Europe open lower, but closed mixed. At 9:00 the Case-Shiller housing price index reported that prices had declined at a rate of 15.9% over the past twelve months. This is only a slightly lower low than the 15.8% decline reported last month. The acceleration of the decline seems to be easing. But they are still declining, and inventories are still increasing. The market responded to the news by opening slightly lower around SPX 1264. A short term oversold rally followed to SPX 1276 by 10:30. At 10:00 the conference board reported that consumer confidence had increased from 51.9% to 56.9%. A pullback followed after the SPX 1276 high for the day, to a slightly lower low by 3:00 at 1263. At 2:00 the FOMC minutes were released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20080805.htm. Nothing new. Holding support again at the 1261 pivot, the market rallied into the close. For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.15%. Bonds were flat, Crude added $1.15, Gold gained $3.25, and the Euro was lower. Support for the SPX remains at 1261 and then 1240, with resistance at 1287 and then 1316. Short term momentum was oversold this morning and rallied back to neutral. The near term indicators continue to decline. Tomorrow durable goods orders at 8:30. This market continues to hold support at the SPX 1261 pivot. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend high SPX 1313
LONG TERM: bear market
Hi egoldspot,
The USD is now the most overbought it has been since 2005.
Medium term the trend is still up, but
Short term I can count five waves up into yesterdays highs, with a negative RSI divergence developing.
If it doesn\’t make more upside progress in the next few days, this uptrend could be over.
Hi Tony, can you update in brief for USD I mean short,medium terms? Thanks in advance
Chrys, Egoldspot, just wait till tony\’s pivot 1261, below it you can expect a drop near the july bottom.
We\’re bouncing now, so that means down starting tomorrow at the open. I\’m looking forward to the iii/(iii)!
Keep in mind that the Nasdaq is ABOVE the 50dMA but below the 200dMA. Gotta watch for a bounce (or at least resistance) when it gets down to that 50dMA at 2338.
15min chart shows RSI and MACD uptrend line is about to break. Will likely break if SPX drops below 1275-1276…so I\’m doubtful that will happen in the last 25 minutes, but I\’m still short nonetheless. No positive divergence on the 15min or 60min chart for RSI and MACD between the 1293 and potential 1285 short-term tops. Downtrend line from 1440–>1313–>1293 held today. Hourly 89SMA also held. And, nobody mentioned Tony\’s 1287 pivot held. CPC still way too bullish, ISE has cooled off to just slightly bullish. Don\’t expect to see 1287 breached.
Art Cashen of CNBC says that the market has been down 10 out of the last 11 yrs on the thurs before Labor Day. FYI
You always have to remember that wave 2\’s can retrace 78%.If we end on a low wave v, I expect a small gap up tomorrow morning. We\’ll see how we end today. Anyway, my 78% 1285-6 point held.
MT, count seems right to me 1284-5 is top, we should gap down tomorrow. for 3 (95-south)
MT – this is my count of wave C down
Wave 1: 1302 – 1261
Wave 2: 1261 – 1293
Wave i: 1293 – 1264
Wave ii: 1264 – 1285 (in progress). Wave ii is an irregular ABC and could go a little higher.
Another very importan reason why I was seeing the ER2 bullish today was the fact that on my 60 min charts we had a clear stochastic divergence on the last low and I also had a clear 5 waves overlapped pattern, so the reason why it is labelled with letters beside it as this could mean that this 5 waves down can be a corrective pattern, we need to be careful if shorts positions are initiated as we could go higher.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/28774652@N05/2803072633/sizes/l/
SPX 60 min chart:
08-20 1261 = wave 1 of Tony`s major C
27-08 1285 = wave 2 or it\’s still underway
`The whole pattern from the july low is corrective.
Forgot to mention that I was able to sell ER2 at 734.6 and collected a total of 3 points on 2 lots in 10 minutes.So not too bad for pocket money while on vacation.My day is done as I\’m not supposed to trade
BernieAugust 27 10:40 AM Hi Laurent,Thanks for all your great posts!I
see that TTT has a pivot at 733.08 on ER2, and your MTP chart shows a
green target box at 730. Are these the sort of correlations that you
trade with?Yes Bernie but this is just part of what I use as I also make projections, retracements and try to identify cluster area to where the market might reverse then compare with TTT book, today is the third day and last day of the 3 day cycle and since we didn\’t had much of a rally in the 2 previous day, I was expecting this kind of rally to at least 736 737.P.S sorry for the late reply but I just came back from a 2hr rollerblading ride as I\’m on vacation for the next 2 weeks
Today\’s rally is on a rumor that there is going to be some announcement from Treasury about GSE\’s.
Elam,If you know "GDP is going to be SIGNIFICANTLY revised upwards tomorrow", wouldn\’t that be factored in already/discounted…perhaps today is that "prelabor day party for bulls".
GDP is going to be SIGNIFICANTLY revised upwards tomorrow. Tomorrow ES should take out 1290 on that backward looking GDP. With thin volume, a prelabor day party for bulls cannot be ruled out.I am short here at 1283 but I am not placing any stops and hope to add more at 1295-1300 tomorrow if it happens.
Did not expect above 1283 which eliminated one of my EW bearish counts and slightly exceeded the 62% Fib retrace of 1293, although 1293+ is needed to officially eliminate the potential beginning of a wave iii of 3 down. I\’m still short until 1288, which is just above the downtrend line from 1440–>1313–>1293 and 50% retrace of 1313–>1261. Looks like we needed a 5-3-5 from 1263. We\’ll see if it is an abc or 123 shortly. Good luck.
Correction: 738.03 not 783.03
In addition to that, Taylor Trading Technique (thanks Laurent) is showing a pivot at 783.03
It looks like ER2 hit the 741-6 pivot area (as seen in the charts section) plus RUT seems to have been one of the leaders in the market\’s trend recently.
Bernie,I\’m still short right this second, but I\’m not expecting the market to "tank" until September. So, I\’ll probably scalp the chop chops. Best,
Sue,I suppose you are negating your comment about shorting at 1281?
ya, month end mark up?
I think this is just the "apex" high of the day here, as the 60 minute sto\’s burn all their fuel, and the bulls make the last attempt to spook any shorts. Market needed to come back up to the spy 129 level to close the gaps from Monday. Also, it looks like all the big sell-offs of the last several months had a strong up-day right before the heavy selling begins. If your long, this may be the last chance for a while to get out, PUTS are cheap right now at this hour. Final call, all aboard!
I tend to agree with Amos that this market probably won\’t start going down in sweeping fashion until Sept 2. Until then August will go down in history as the up-month reprieve in this bear market. Reverse to bull markets.
as usual talk is cheap. we can talk about 1000, 1100, but market proves to be resilient without any Black Swan events.
hear Yorba TV, they are talking about 500-600 Gold !!!!!. Easily SPX would be at 1400 in no time.
stand aside. Fund managers are all standing aside. Trade at the peril of sharks…..
S2, I guess for whatever reason, market wants to go higher, ISEE, CPC, don\’t give… oh well, low volume day, easily get pushed around I guess… but is amazing that market has regover almost all the loss (from the gap down not Friday close)!
good play on the long side
Rich, lol!
What the!!! are we in danger of peace breaking out or what?
Wow, 78% is 1285-6. I\’m stopped out there.
1281 is the 61.8% retrace, so it won\’t go any higher. Time to short,
folks. Wave iii has begun. We go down all the rest of today and
tomorrow – chop sui style.
I though U.S. Coast Guard is "endangered species" of US coastal waters only.
They should have a new slogan "Patrolling US Coast, half-the-world away!"
A U.S. Coast Guard ship carrying humanitarian aid docked in the Georgian Black Sea port of Batumi Wednesday, as Georgia\’s Western allies renewed their criticism of Russia amid escalating tensions.
The cutter Dallas bypassed its original destination, the Georgian port of Poti, which is controlled by Russian troops still in the country despite a cease-fire deal to end conflict between the two countries.
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/27/russia.georgia/
Missions
The United States Coast Guard is a military, multimission, maritime service within the Department of Homeland Security and one of the nation\’s five armed services. Its core roles are to protect the public, the environment, and U.S. economic and security interests in any maritime region in which those interests may be at risk, including international waters and America\’s coasts, ports, and inland waterways.
everybody on hols. some would I. chow!!!!!
Frank beat me to the punch. The sentiment has been too bullish the last few days and even weeks…CPC and ISE…today\’s numbers will cool down especially if we drop, but it demonstrates the leaning. That combined with the 1275-1283 Fib zone being reached has me in a full short position with stop just above 1283, where the most bearish scenario would be nixed. A perfect 1×1 abc from 1263 late yesterday would hit 1281. We got 1280. Close enough? We\’ll see. Once below the 1264 trend line and 1260-1264 price support, it\’s thin air, so be careful. Good luck.
so far all option player are pretty bullish… ISEE at 180s (that\’s very high, almost 2 call per 1 puts) and $CPC at the low end of 70s… both number show people are placing bet on bullish side… I wonder what\’s the good news? Also notice oil is up today still, so I wonder what are those dumb pundits going to say when they always say higher oil means lower equity…?
Well, theoretically, at least, here we go. Dow & Nas both retraced 50%.
Hi Laurent,Thanks for all your great posts!I see that TTT has a pivot at 733.08 on ER2, and your MTP chart shows a green target box at 730. Are these the sort of correlations that you trade with?
be careful, it may turn out to be a bear trap.
prefer to short from 1320-1327.
market is thin, the RATS can push it in whatever direction it wants.
Lee, jump across la Manche and check food in Paris
and in London – have u spotted any russian billionairs?
mark some nice condos so during next Depression you can get them cheap
so where are the pundits say oil up market down? Those dumb CNBC dudes….
Lee, Agree London rocks! Been 4 times to England/Wales/Scotland on month-long business trips with lots of fun on the weekends. Wasn\’t so expensive 5 years ago and glad it was mostly business money cuz it\’s outrageous now…for instance, Subway (the food) was pretty much double the price taking into account the exchange rate last year…I\’m a cheapskate…and the hotels were crazy expensive for less quality.
Interesting to note that SPX has retested the breakdown of the 1200 uptrend line and stopped at 1272. The last 2 days it was stopped by another trend line, now at 1264ish. Below that is not much until Fib 1257/1243 and 1213-1220 trend lines (two cross 1220 on my daily chart not shown). Good luck.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p77587933920&a=147416304&listNum=2&listNum=2
got some nq\’s at 1895
Any one with USD forecast near term, mid-term, guesstimate will do, Thanks
Good afternoon folks,
What no crash yet?? My vacation indicator is taking some heat…
Serg dont bother bringing ur Forks to the U.K lets just say their food is uh… hmmmm….lacking.
Heading west to Wales then if weather holds taking a ferry to Dublin. Ah Dublin were u can get a lovely drink and pub grub to die 4.
Looks like the markets are just holding nothing new yet.. Just got short a few ES above 1275 so u know what that means …128700 coming.
London is crazy expensive IMO but cool as shit. Yea Baby!!!
Brilliant !!!
entering the sell zone 1275 to 1283, qqqq close to rich p\’s short zone
FDIC "Look, ma! No CASH!"
The U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., which provides cover for U.S. bank deposits, may have to tap Treasury Department funds to carry it through an anticipated wave of bank failures, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing chairman Sheila Bair. Bair told the Journal the borrowing wouldn\’t be to cover any FDIC losses, instead it would provide short-term liquidity to cover bank failures.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121977767814673649.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news
Hennecke Sees `Huge Upside\’ for Gold, Price at $6,000
)http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=av&clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vbWY9m2tQ2b4.asf
Stuck between forks
http://paintfantasy.com/images/spxforkingtraffic.jpg
TonyC reviews Gold, NDX on Yorba
http://www.yorba.tv/archive-2008-08-73-1-start.htmhttp://www.yorba.tv/archive-2008-08-73-2-start.htm
http://yorbatv.ning.com/profiles/comment/list?attachedToType=User&attachedTo=36gqb4giprlo5
egoldspot, I\’m already on Version 5, that was version 1
"You take the blue path — Recession ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe."
http://paintfantasy.com/images/SpxRedOrBlue.jpg
Serg, you might be counting, but I don\’t care if someone is wrong or right. But I do like to listen to what they have to say. I am sure you must have had a bad day someday!
"
WOW! HD, you\’re a genius!
PEOPLE! HD just gave us exact date Bear Market 08 will end!
http://paintfantasy.com/images/SPXTheDayBear08Ends.jpg
"
Bob Prechter releases August EWI Theorist for FREEhttp://www.elliottwave.com/auth/login.aspx?ReturnUrl=%2fclub%2fprotected%2fpdf%2f0808EWT-REF.pdf
Only 8 days left to Sept 8th(including) and we\’re still at 1260-1270.
)
Considering we\’ll need like 3 days for small retracements it leaves us only 5 days of continuous drop
And if we planning to get to 1200 it\’s 20+ points per day (100%-38%).
Who is our next rogue trader?
SergAugust 26 9:43 PM Thanks Laurent.
it\’s a bid-ask spread I like in RUTSerg, wait until they move to the ICE exchange as we will need to see if ER2 will behave the same as when it was at the CME, if it does. I\’ll say it and repeat it, Russell 2000 is the index that gives you more for your buck. That\’s the reason why I daytrade it as very often ES will go sideways while ER2 will move easily 3 to 4 points on each side.
I\’m planing to move to RUT from SPX soon
Thanks Laurent.
it\’s a bid-ask spread I like in RUT
I\’m planing to move to RUT from SPX soon
Sorry had a problem with the last link I posted for the 15 min ER2 chart wave count.
Here you go.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/28774652@N05/2800289739/sizes/l/
As mentionned earlier here is my ER2 weekly count, you will notice that we might now be in wave (3C) down as we seem to have completed wave (2B) the reason why it is going down in an impulse wave so far, see 15 min charts.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/28774652@N05/2801069964/sizes/l/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/28774652@N05/2800222503/sizes/l/