SHORT TERM: Crude oil rallies market closes mixed, DOW +12
Overnight all the Asian markets were lower, and Europe opened lower then closing -0.65%. US index futures were pressured overnight, then at 8:30 the weekly unemployment claims were reported to have improved a bit: 432K vs. 445K. The market gapped down at the opening, hitting 1265 within the opening minutes. That was the low for the day. At 10:00 the Philly FED displayed some improvement, but still contracting. Also, Leading Indicators rolled over to -0.7%, and have now declined 1.8% in the past six months. The market continued to rally to 1273 by 10:30, pulled back to 1266 by 11:00, and then rallied again. By 3:00 the SPX hit 1281, the highest it has been since monday. There certainly seems to be lots of support in the 1260′s area. At the close the SPX/DOW were +0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.35%. Bonds lost about ten ticks, Crude stormed ahead $6.00, Gold rallied $25.50, and the Euro was higher. Short term momentum was getting overbought nearing the close, and the near term indicators are rising as well. Tomorrow, only a 10:00 speech from FED chairman Bernanke is on the agenda. Removed yesterdays tentative 1-2-3-4 count from the SPX 1313, as wave 4 overlapped wave 1 on todays rally. Still waiting for a confirm to the downside in the SPX, which would make SPX 1313 the high for the uptrend. The DOW does look like it has already turned over, and is waiting on the SPX. Nothing seriously confirmed by OEW yet. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend high SPX 1313
LONG TERM: bear market
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thanks.
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عاجل: إنتر ميلان يطلب اللعب أمام أهلي جده السعودي وديه
فضيحة
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I am still short my 2/8, position. We are in wave 1 of 5, For complete 5 to fall out it might take more then 3-7 days. I still maintain that position.
Frank, I have never seen such a big bear trap, unless we are talking about spx 1500, which I doubt.
Doomsday Sept 2nd.
Rally was probably some kind of short covering as they gonna come with market wide naked short rule etc
Cole, wow, so when they fail and can not pay back the loan, who is left to hold the bag?!
Make that 50 Billion for the Auto Makers…
Awesome! Should be a great catalyst for a strong rally on Monday!!
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=amGc6ZPSzRLM&refer=home
Well AAPL still maintains the triple top but did not break down from the lower end of the range & the market went essentially nowhere. Out of most of the shorts except holding a moderate index position for Mon.
Dow closed at 11627, below the 200wMA of 11731 & but slightly above the 50 month MA of 11620. The month ends next Friday so to maintain the bear case, the Dow needs to close below 11620 by the end of next week.
Lehman now making new lows for the day but market continues to fake higher?
S2 as always thanks for the breakdown.
Interesting article from CNBC: US Automakers Are Seeking $25 Billion in Federal Loans
http://www.cnbc.com/id/26348390
How many industries can we bail out right now? Don\’t think I will be buying into this rally here.
Possible ED final 5th wave from 1283 projects to 1293 top line with possible overthrow of 1-3 pts but could be done with that last run to 1292. Expecting 1293-1295 then we\’d close with intraday negative divergence on the 15min MACD and RSI or have a last minute 5-10 pt drop.
New hi/lo\’s. just scroll down after page loads
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/marketsdata.html?mod=topnav_0_0002_public&refresh=on
HD, you are funny! well $CPC is in the lower range (80s, this morning it was actually around 70s). ISEE pretty bullish as of right now, 161, pretty high. But then yesterday it was 134 which is high and today market still blasted off! So sentiment, out the window?
anyone has realtime $SPXa50r reading? how is it compare to other days? But lately we are pretty high up there in the 60s, last high at May was around 70s…
One interesting thing, NYSE H/L, usally I see high outnumber low, but with today big gain, there is only 12 New 52-week high but 35 New 52-week low! Wow, so what\’s up with that? Nasdaq 13H vs 38L and AMEX 4H/7L. So there you have it, lows out number high by quite a bit. Not sure what that means…
Anyone else have other H/L number they would like to share?
Tony, I see that the TSX chart has been relabeled for a flat correction. Any ideas on the downside target?
Also have the Dow coiled in the corner, usually means a turn
If is a true triple top on AAPL, shouldn\’t be any upside on Mon
So what\’s on deck for Monday? Just house sales? Any upside suprise there would b interesting…. I gotta think a close above the 618 is bullsh*t.. I mean bullish. we\’ll see how the last hour goes. Probably to big here, looking to get rid of half either way.
Flat out short, at least thru rest of day…then moderate carryover for Mon, assuming AAPL keeps heading down.
AAPL looks like it just failed the 3rd attempt to break thru $177.50…..Triple top on AAPL if this holds up on rest of day.
Closed short with -0.5 pts loss.
HD, I wish, but as far as right now, the look the crude, unless some miracle happen, market might just go up with crude going down… look like bulls are consolidating right now with another attack upward… if we end up closing back into the rising wedge the action past few day might end up a big bear trap…
c\’mon give us a lower low.
Stu- great analysis.
S2, nice analysis as always. Let\’s see where they close, it seems that market like you say, may want to hold on into the weekend so to screw as many shorts as possible… I was thinking that if market wanted to fall, it probably would\’ve done a higher high on this last rise and do a negative divergence on RSI, but it didn\’t, so we may just bounce around and do a consolidation into the close… OR if crude keep on falling, which is doing now, we might even go higher?
Top could be in, but on the 1min chart I\’m counting 4 waves since the 1283 low mid-day. The 5 waves this morning to 1293 plus the correction to 1283 and now 5 more waves would complete my EW count from 1266 and end the 1-2-1-2 from 1313 eith wave 3 of 3 starting. This last possible wave up should launch from 1287ish and likely travel 3-9 pts meaning 1290-1296. If SPX drops below 1286, then the top is in OR we could be forming an ED of sorts from 1284ish which would last into Monday morning into the 1290s OR we could be forming a large abc down from 1293 to 1280ish before launching the final wave 5 (this last one seems unlikely due to wave time length and sentiment etc). Seems like Mr. Market may want to drag things into the weekend. Good luck.
Frank, the same with silver.
Buba, firing away huh! it seems market is fixated on Crude.. pretty much following tic by tic, they probably have computer program tradering tick by tick, crude go down dow go up, crude go up dow go down… is ridiculous!
Short @ 1289.75
Thanks, Stu … all of your posts add value.
CTA >> http://www.cftc.gov/industryoversight/intermediaries/cpocta.html
bouncing along the lower fork channel
http://www.paintfantasy.com/images/spxforkin082208b.jpg
CPC and ISE showing too bullish sentiment today. Lining up with the other indicators for an imminent down move. Top could already be in at 1293 or we could get that final 4-5 to 1290-1294 or a very brief spike a couple points above. Oil seems to be reloading for a break through the 122 s/r level. I want to be in a fully short trading position, but I hate to hold options over weekends…especially brand new positions due to the risk and lost time value, so I\’ll hold a sizeable position in cash for Monday morning unless we hit 1293 again and then tank before the close. Good luck.
is it hard to pass CTA? where do I find more info
Serg, I pardon your ignorance.
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/08/21/business/NA-US-Oil-Markets-Speculation.php
Vitol, also the UN "oil for food" scandal culprit.
I am a CTA, by the way.
The current rally can be attributed to the short covering, also SWF buynig up US banks. E.g. Singapore becoming a major shareholder in Meryll Lynch, Korean buying Lehman Brothers. First come the dumb monies, then the not so dumb monies, like private equities, Berkshire, Blackrock, KKR, Carlye, then traders like us, finally the market would bottom.
It has to be a Black Swan event to trigger the next plunge, otherwise SPX would oscillate between 1300 and 1260 for next weeks.
8 Aug we had the major USD rally, and Georgia war. What would be have on 1 Sep ?
thanx MT, got to say that I really dun look much at intraday charts. Somehow I know the levels.
Buffet says current level of Financial stocks is attractive, and he longer sells USD. And more banks failure coming.
China Construction Bank reports holding Fannie May and Freddie Mac bonds.
>Vitol is being mentioned in association with a CFTC
)
and I thought Vitol is cholesterol lowering drug
It seems market always keep us guessing and on our toe… look at SPY and DIA 30 minutes candle chart, SPY still within the parallel downtrend channel while DIA broke out huge today… with the volume/price looking very bullish… so which way is it going to be? 1200 the longer term low? We starting a new leg up? Or is $DJI broke out today a bull trap? Or was last few days of trading a bear trap? tough… IWM/QQQQ looking good too, IWM broke the downtrend line today, with QQQQ gap up above the downtrend line (30 minutes chart) and back above the 47.2 support…
Bernanke gave a outlook for inflation at the Wyoming Fed symposium, claiming that inflation would subside, wit rising USD and falling commodities.
Essentially he is throwing a gauntlet to the Inflation Bulls.
Vitol is being mentioned in association with a CFTC investigation in Nymex Oil contracts speculations. They deal in swap contracts on behalf of hedge funds and wealthy individuals.
It is so obivous.
without speculation, would Oil rise again,
without panic selling of a SocGen traders on futures, would there be another Equity plunge ?
When there is a will, there is a way.
3BEPb,
Thanks for the video, Kramer is a hard one to figure out. I think he is neutral but even the neutral ones can inadvertantly lead you into the lions den as he does so often.
While watching that video I came accross another called "exposing Freddie & Fannie"
Assuming other waves 1 i expect 1 0f 5 to be 10-18 points. We should close anywhere from 1283-127X. Also we will be in wave 1 probably today. We will have small bounce Monday morning (wave 2) and rest south
Thanks,
DollarPro, Prophet.Net, click Analyze, chartstream
Should start 5 of 1 soon
crude just touched 3/8 back down
I am short 1/8 @1292
Looks like we want to revisit that lower ED trendline after all
http://paintfantasy.com/images/spxfork082208a.jpg
Nasdaq hit the target I was looking for 2405-2410. Same for SPX at 1290. Both could go a few points higher but I\’m going to open a half short position if that happens. I\’m expecting another possible 4-5 after this 5 ends. Above 1294 be careful with the shorts. Good luck.
11731 is 200wMA on the Dow. Needs to capture this level by end of day today to reverse the bear trend.
hi, where can I get realtime SPX, INDU other than stockcharts.com ?
240808 is the closing ceremony of the Beijing Olympics. Let us give the SPX a standing ovation, and sing "God Bless America"".
To thank all the athletes from the world for their spectacular performance.
If SPX 1294ish gets breached, my preferred 1-2-1-2 EW pattern from 1313 is not eliminated but its on life support and I\’d be cautiously bullish if SPX holds above 1294. I have 2 key trend lines crossing 1294ish today, 2 more key lines crossing 1220 next week and other trend lines crossing 1327 on Sep 4-5, so the direction from 1290-1294 should determine the next 3-5% move. Exceeding 1278-1282, where we paused at end of day yesterday targets 1285-1294 with 1287-1290 most likely. I\’m expecting a 5-4-5 today and the futures indicate we\’re going to get the fist wave 5, where I\’ll be a seller and then wait for a short opportunity with stop just above 1294. Good luck.
Everyone\’s tone has changed…. that\’s why it\’s important to trade with the direction of the market, bear market or bear rally.I was waiting for SDS @ 66, SKF @ 125, DIG @ 81Although SDS target was reached yesterday (@ 65), SKF today (@127) I\’m putting off any decision to short until 1275 fails after the market opens (if it does). I was looking for the 1286 target TOP (for a 1-2,1-2 count). Premarket sits at 1286.Should prove to be an interesting day
note the change in tone in Tony\’s Thursday commentary.
Think it is a massacre of the bear today after market open.
too many bears around, need to do some population control.
as my stand had been market would test 1320 to 1327, Tony\’s target 3 weeks ago.
SKF covers the gap
Serg, thanks for that financialsense article. Very interesting although admittedly self-affirming. I think financials are in a C wave up. I suggested UYG was near the end of a B wave earlier this week in a comment. For the XLF, it project to $26 if C=A. Another good target is $27.50. Its probably putting in some sort of a flat. Who do you want to own in a deflationary environment? Asset holders or those who are short assets and long cash?
Arch Crawford expects rally early next week and hard down starting wednesday
http://yorba.tv/archive-2008-08-70-1-start.htm
check this out:Cramer exclaims that the market is riggedI always thought that Cramer was just a tool used to get the public on the wrong side of the trade but this makes me question that judgment…..
Hong Kong closed its markets and offices as Typhoon Nuri bore down on the city with winds as high as 120 kilometers (75 miles) per hour, prompting the government to warn residents to prepare for a direct hit.
unfreakingbeliavable – 10 days til Sept 8th
)
hopefully it\’s not Ten Days That Shook the World
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Nuclear power station comes to supermarket near you
)
Eating lettuce will now be healthy, but your stomach might experience a slight greenish glow at night, saving electricity usage
Food producers can now use radiation to kill bacteria on fresh spinach and iceberg lettuce because of a new Food and Drug Administration ruling meant to help head off outbreaks of foodborne illness.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/08/21/AR2008082103547.html
1302-1261 w-i- of 3 of V
abc to 1281 (50% of w-i-)= w-ii-
1286 would be 61.8% for wave ii, possible but unlikely with 50DMA
w –iii- of 3 target range 1240 to 1214 for 1.618
anybody got any comments on Singapore Temasek buying some more of Meryll Lynch, now exceeding 10%, and requiring SEC approval.
Is it the bottom of the financials ?
Frank, interesting book will be released later this year
“The Great Crash Ahead” A New Book by Harry S. Dent, Jr.
http://www.hsdent.com/2008/07/23/the-great-crash-ahead-a-new-book-by-harry-s-dent-jr/
Thanks for the kind words Praveen. My posts will be limited through Labor Day. Good luck.
Serg, you for got to mention to 65 trillion CDS market meltdown…
"Oh, and did I mention hundreds of potential bank failures, corporate bankruptcies, millions of job losses, an auto and airline industry bailout? The grand finale could be the implosion of the $65 trillion (nominal value) of the CDS market. That alone introduces an entirely different scenario which does not bode well for anyone anywhere in the world. In America, things begin to look even worse when you add the expected $51 to $72 trillion deficit for the boomer’s entitlement programs. At the very best of scenarios, America will linger for many years in my opinion. And if a catastrophic event occurs like a CDS meltdown, the global economy could witness an unprecedented meltdown unlike anything ever imagined. "
And lastly which I agree with the writer, recession is good…
"In order for a sustained bull market to emerge we first need to clear out the trash in the economy, and that means we need a full recession. Only then can we start anew towards rebuilding a strong economy – a strong dollar, reasonable oil and commodity prices, good jobs, healthy savings and investment, and manageable debt. "
BUT the problem is that government policy does not want to have a recession… they keep wanting people to borrown and spend to avoid a recession… or to deny that we are already in recession… stupid politicians, just want to look good on the surface where is ugly underneath…
With low interest rate, how can you expect people wanting to save? with low interest, how can you have strong dollar? Because they want to save the "unsavable", they keep lowering the interest rate? What\’s next 0% interest? And we go to Japan senario?
Interesting contrast on different markets today. TRAN, RUT and COMPQ all look like they could rally 1-2% Fri/Mon on the hourly charts due to some support points and in order to approach their previous degree 4th waves. INDU and SPX seem to have less upside. The daily charts all favor more downside for the time being. NYSE actually looks in the worst shape with a near retest of its July 15th low earlier this week…maybe it will lead the breakdown to new lows. VIX pierced its 3rd fan line today on my 2-month 60-min chart. Just like August 6th, the last hour bounced to touch the underside of that line. August 7th was an SPX gap down day totaling 30 pts in just over a day. CPC is fairly neutral. NYMO had a small move for the 2nd day in a row usually portending a big move imminently. ISE showed very bullish sentiment today.
Combining that info with my detailed SPX analyses in the last couple days, I\’d say SPX markets will likely see a little upside on Friday (maybe as oil/gold retreat a bit) but VIX, NYMO, ISE, oil and other technicals suggest there is a big down move in the offing and I\’ve got an initial target of SPX 1220 next week with 1293 max, 1287 likely for tomorrow. If SPX moves straight down on Friday with RUT and COMPQ, the 1276 breakout level must be broken and then the previous triangle uptrend line at 1270ish before the serious stuff should start. Good luck.
Dear Mr. Stu (S2),
I\’m more privileged today, to read so many of your regular updates on markets.
They were so informative and made me think all the time about various possibilities of wave patterns.
Please continue the good work and if possible, you can also think about increasing the frequency of your postings
With Regards,
Funny! McCain so old and so rich he forgets how many houses he owns
"I think — I\’ll have my staff get to you," McCain told Politico when asked Wednesday how many houses he owns. "It\’s condominiums where — I\’ll have them get to you."
Short & Long Term Market Forecasts
Dow 17,000 by 2015 http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/stathis/2008/0821.html
As a final note, consider the 80 million baby boomers that were just beginning to recover from the $7 trillion of losses from Internet bubble. And now they’re faced with the current meltdown which has already erased $2 to $3 trillion from the stock market and $6 trillion from home values. Throw in $500 billion in bank write downs, over $1 trillion in Fed bailouts to the banking cartel and things aren’t looking so great. But when we consider the likelihood of another $500 to $700 billion in write downs, another $1 to $1.5 trillion in banking bailouts, another $2 trillion losses in real estate value, things begin to look very ugly.
We completed 3 of wave 4 @ 1281, we will retrace back to 127X (4 of W4)and then hit 1287-91(5 of w4) and kick of wave 5.
Wave 5 will last for atleast 3 days but I think It might last for 7 days as Fed will Say 29-Sept 2 that Fed will Nationalize FNM,FRE as over the long weekend people kind of don\’t take news seriously and possibly say U.S. is in recession.
All the bad news will thrown out this weekend as it\’s last long weekend before christmas and they don\’t like to spoil customer spending (;
egoldspotAugust 20 1:38 PM
(http://cid-c266be5eeab1b0eb.spaces.live.com/)
1313-1274 = 39 (W1)1274-1302 = 28 (W2)1302-1261 = 41 (W3) 1261-1275=14 (W4-I) 1275-1263=12 Complex (a-e) 1266-1280=14 (W4-III) 1280-12??=?? (W4-IV)
1269-1287=18 (w4-V)
The Dow intraday chart sure looks like a retest on the breakdown from the 11460 level to me. fyi – holding shorts.
Fist 3 forks combined with projections/extensions of 1st waves down
conformed what we knew all along – Tony\’s targets
1195-1220, 1150-1180, 1050-1080
http://paintfantasy.com/images/spxfiboclusters.jpg
Today I was hoping the green fork will contain intraday action when it did not I stretched green fork\’s left corner from 1274 to 1276 hoping that will do the trick
the right corner theoretically should be 1302 but I use 1300 – it seems better. So I guess it\’s like with Bollinger Bands – X% of a time we go outside. The other thing – my intraday chart allows only 20 days of data(software limitation). So big fork 1200-1313 is missinghttp://paintfantasy.com/images/spxforkin082108b.jpg