SHORT TERM: market opens higher then closes mixed, DOW +44
Overnight the Asian markets were mixed, Europe opened higher but closed mixed as well. With overnight selling in the commodity sector the US index futures moved higher. At 9:15 July industrial production was reported +0.2% vs. +0.4%, and remains flat for the past year. The market opened slightly higher, then rallied to 1302 in the first few minutes. That was the high for the day. After a pullback to SPX 1291 by 10:00, the market stayed within that trading range into the close. For the day the DOW/SPX were +0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.25%. Bonds were up about eleven ticks, Crude lost $1.25, Gold dropped $20.00, and the Euro was lower. Support for the SPX remains at 1287 and then 1261, with resistance at 1316 and then 1327. Short term momentum remained around neutral, and the near term indicators edged up slightly. While the USD, currencies, and commodities made big moves this week. The equity market ended mixed, with the SPX/DOW slightly lower and the NDX/NAZ higher. The USD appears to have broken out of its 3-year downtrend. But it’s not certain if it has ended its 7-year bear market. Since this rally already looks similar to the 2004-2005 uptrend, it should retrace back to about 83 on the USD index by 2009. This should continue to pressure the commodity sector in the coming months. Crude oil, the leader in the sector, most likely will bottom first. It continues to hold support, while the precious metals decline. Best to your weekend!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend high at SPX 1313
LONG TERM: bear market