SHORT TERM: market rally continues as Crude slides further, DOW +30
Overnight the Asian markets were mostly higher, and Europe gained 1.5%. US index futures held steady overnight and into the open when the SPX made its low for the day at 1276. By 10:30 the market had rallied to 1291, a new high from the SPX 1200 low. That was the high for the day, as the pivot at 1287 offered resistance. A pullback followed until 2:00 to 1277, when the beige book was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/beigebook/2008/20080723/default.htm. A rally to 1287 by 2:30 faded into the close despite Crude making new lows for the day. Crude has dropped 15% is just eight trading days. At the close the SPX/DOW were +0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.15%. Bonds lost about 1/4 point, Crude dropped $4.25, Gold slumped $29.00, and the Euro was lower. Support remains at 1261 and then 1240, with resistance at 1287 and then 1316. Short term momentum was way overbought this morning, and near term momentum was overbought as well. Tomorrow existing home sales and the weekly jobs report at 8:30. The SPX hit out 1287 pivot today, it might be time for a pullback to the 1240 level. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend bottomed at SPX 1200
LONG TERM: bear market
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thanks.
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Hi Elam, think there\’s one more push lower in Crude, a few dollars.
Then the commodities rebound.
Very nice trade HD..
I\’m off to Canada !!
Later eh?
ok flat.
SPYUT.X
4.00
+1.28
+47.06%
It\’s also possible that the recent up trend was a w4 & the Dow has now entered the final w5 down.
not stopping yet ….
I just bought some here now 1/3 left
5650 is basically .618 back from 1200. 75 low
Hopefully cover at the .50
doesn\’t today feel like the "shrink" version of the sell off from June 26? Is just consistance and pressure is on and just dirp dirp bounce, drip drip bounce and lower it goes… look at the leg on 60 minutes chart of SPY, one long consistance little candle one after another, lower high lower low… wow… and look at FRE and FNM, just when we thought everything going to be alright and our government going to back them, SLAP! right on their face!
I think considering today\’s MM action.
Best chance tomorrow 10-11 AM to make and entry. 1294 was during that time frame. I mean short can also get sequezzed
Frank, I\’m with you on your concept of bouncing on a w4 & selling off to Tony\’s target tomorrow……
Large bounces probably Tuesday 7.29 and Thursday 7.31 (last day of the month) next week. Friday 8.1 is non-farm payroll day, I believe.
wave 4 now? Maybe get a bit higher and sell into it…
Or maybe not as extreme to 1240 but to 50% retrace which is around 124.6 on SPY
Sounds good Frank
Maybe one day straight to 1240? such a forceful sell off… I can even maybe see a 5 wave down on 30 minutes SPY chart… maybe we are in wave 3 and will have a wave 4 bounce and tomorrow end wave 5 at Tony\’s 1240…
Bought QID at $44.89 at 2:47 pm sold it at $45.012 at 2:52 pm for $240 profit on 2,000 shares..
This Wave B has been real good to me this week…..
I\’m taking that last trade Profit and buying all the kids in the neighbor Round Table Pizza tonight….
12 Round Table Pizza Coupons ….
God bless
Anyone hear National City is insolvent?
Completely wrong on the 1302 by yesterday close and today, yes I must have been dreaming. Took another look at that spinning top after the close.
New count.: Wave 4/a completed 1291.
1237 (1)/5/a
1284 (2)/5/a
1170
Tony, did crude make a wave A bottom at the 100 dma near 123s close to your 122 level? This happens to be near the 0.38 pullback level too. A realistic B bounce now 130-133 level and then a=c implies 108-110 level. Does this sound right?
Lee, ha. I noticed
We all lose some. I got my hand smacked pretty good on goog.
Anybody notice Amos traded 2000 shares, went to the store and filled baloons in 5 minutes. wow
Thanks Amos.
blip 1260 goes
Yes, liking 1240/45 for a t/p …50% of move to 1291Not sure where there is a ED??
Forgot to say that I see positive RSI and MACD divergences on the 15min and 60min charts as compared to the last low at 1249 that may have started wave 5 of A. I did not see that at 1271. However, the further we get from the uptrend/downtrend line convergence I charted around 1271, the more likely that\’s about as high as we\’ll get on the next bounce but a spring is coiling and a bounce now could still hurdle it. Good luck.
Thx Tony!…you have been spot on.
went long the Oct SKF(SKFJH) call at 15.5 yesterday while SKF was down 12…now trading at almost 25.00……Im playing the 1290—>1240 retrace before i go long again…my call is up 60% in 2 days!
I pay $8.95 per trade….
God bless
Just returned from the store, I boughtmy new puppy a ton of kool toys…Ballons..I fill the ballons with water..and tight the end…some of the ballons I fill with air…he can\’t stop running around the house poppping the ballons..its amazing how much fun he is having…I have water all over..lol
God bless
What is the commission on 2,000 shares? Well is 6300 going to be resistance?
Well, my EW chart needing a final v of 5 of A has been trashed and Tony\’s pivot proves to be a magnet again. I\’m now especially sorry I missed the 1288 short due to internet glitch…but on to the next trade. I put on a 1/3 long position at 1271 and again 1260. We\’ve now got a 30+pt move down which the number pattern odds suggest we\’ve officially started B and 1291–>1254=37 pts is possible here before a possible test of Tony\’s magnetic 1240 (1291–>1240=51, a pattern number) but 1260 should offer strong support. Having said that, in the back of my head, I\’m keeping in mind a possible ED for "A" since the pattern looks incomplete to me: 1249–>1291 (a of 5), 1291–>1260? (b of 5). That\’s just to keep me out of trouble shorting too hard, too early on the next bounce. A good thing whether it happens or not…at least for me personally. Good luck.
AMOS, you like weak sector scalping?
Bought QId 2,000 shares at $44.65 just sold at $44.922 slammed another $544 profit…
15 minute chart of Nasdaq RSI (5) was tilting lower…macd histrogram lower…dow selling off…
God bless
Frank, wants bulls & bear to fight, i did enjoy it
Please… find a direction… either do a big up and we can short into close or do a big down and flush out the longs and we can go on with our bounce… ZZZZZZzzzzz…..
I only post the winners HD
Tony !! Tony !!
Yes, Thanks Tony!!!! since were posting trades (OPR: SPYUT.X) + 25.6% overnight on the very impressive call 1287-1240-1316, hope to catch more of it.
So MM\’s are in action today. I petty MM\’s they got to do this dirty work. Meaning their loading takes like 3 days
and then unloading takes like 2 days. I mean do this kind of work to get paid. Which, makes our job easy(;
-Courtesy Tony
Bought QID at $44.79 just sold it at $45.01 slammed another $220 profit
The 1 minute Nasdaq gapped down twice….looked like someone drive off the cliff….
Breath is in favor of the bears today..lower she goes…
God bless
Lee, looking at volume price action, it should… if bull want a bounce it should be here… if not, then we are heading toward down 1255…
If its going to bounce it should here….
I bought Apple at $159.85 sold it at $160.20 for a $350 profit…..
I feel Apple is in wave 4 of 5 down…..it has one more leg down..
Nasdaq should move lower to 2280 level….
I went to Walmart after selling SDS way to cheap…should of keep it longer….I found a New technology calculator that runs 100% on Solar power….thats awesome….no batteries needed…..just plain sunlight will charge it up….
Cost me $3.95….cheap r something thats nothing of amazing….
I\’m telling you Solar cars are coming, If they can produce a calculator that runs on solar..just think what else they will invent.
God bless
Supporting your strong bounce theory Stu is ER2 which has been leading the strength in this market for weeks now. It completed a near perfect ABC down from yesterday\’s highs.
This 1286–>1265 move now looks like 5 waves which could be "c" of an abc down from 1291 meaning a strong bounce would still be forthcoming. However, we broke below the downtrend line just above 1270 and the retrace from 1291 has been 26 points now which is greater than the 18-20 pt corrections thus far from 1200 and it could mean B has started to 1260 or likelier 1240. In any event, a move below 1263 will invalidate my potential EW count from last night that required one more 5th wave test of 1292. A move to 1260ish will equate to a 30-32 pt drop often seen in the number patterns since October plus it will be a Tony pivot and previous congestion area, so there should be a decent bounce there if not from 1267. So, here\’s what I\’m thinking in terms of trading scenarios…
1. A bounce from 1264+ should at least go to the previous 4th degree which is at 1274-1275, will probably reach 1282 and could even attack 1292 again if still completing a v of 5 of A.
2. A bounce from 1260ish (below 1263) should go to the previous 4th degree which is at 1274-1275 but the downtrend line just above 1270 could also be a problem. I wouldn\’t count on a bounce above 1270-1275 in this scenario. B wave would have been confirmed as started.
3. A drop below 1260ish today means SPX will likely visit 1240 very soon but not likely before bouncing back up to 1260-1270 in a b of B.
Good luck.
6300 is my guess here
looking to lighten up here ..take a few in to pay the bills
Like ze fox… This lift off is a little wobbly
Am I crazy??
still short ….
SPX hit the low end of my expected range today just above 1270 at a downtrend line charted earlier. Short-term indicators are oversold and I expect a bounce. Wave iv of 5 of A is still completing apparently and I see a perfect 1×1 abc 1291–>1272. Not sure if I\’ll get my perfect bounce to 1292 with negative divergence, but I\’m expecting a bounce nonetheless to at least 1282. Good luck.
3/8 back down and trendline hit on e mini at the low. trendline up on the hourly macd. Great place to turn if there is any life left at least too low to short for the moment.
oh, the support line on SPY I draw yesterday is poke through… 8 minutes left, let\’s see if 30 minute candle confirm the break…
I went short SDS yesterday at the close at $66.29…..just closed the position at $66.80 $500 profit is enough for me today..
Now I can go to the lake with my new puppy and enjoy the weather….
God bless
Sue
Thats good 3 for 1….
Constance Brown she charges way to much money for her services….She is a outstanding trader and teacher….awesome books…give her some time…Charles Chin PHd math he was not always right either….thats why stop loss are soooo important to use.
This current Pattern of the SP 500 is not a easy call….to make just yet..
God bless
Already called, FXI: 3 for 1 split. I thought I was in heaven actually, because I\’m short it. Oh well.
Sue
Closed at 141.59 Pre-market is showing 46something must be wrong with numbers.
Their phone number is 1-800-474-2737
I don\’t know much about that iShare fund..but you might call them
God bless
Constance Brown has been woefully off. She\’s been saying SP500 1261 and then back down. LOL
Nevermind, 3 for 1 split
Sue
What is Constance Brown call for the SP 500?
Sue her book called Aerodynamic Trading by Constance M. Brown is awesome text book….a must have!!!
Well, it sure looks like a flat open, they might make a third test at the 200 MA….I\’m going to watch the Breath numbers real close this first hour of trading….
Apple shares looks like they are set to open lower….so thats a good sign….
God bless
Can anyone look at FXI, I trade FXI/FXP. FXI is down 67.18% in pre-market. Is this right? What happened?
I think this backstop of FNM/FRE effectively sealed the deal that housing is not going to recover for another 2-3 years.30 yr non confirming mortgage rates 6.77% highest in a very long time and going higher. We will break 7% after the senate passes for sure as TLT will sell off more. Wonder how housing will recover at 7%+ mortgage and 9-10% for jumbo.
I\’m currently short with SDS Ultra shares at 1281 on the SP 500 overnight futures are swinging my way on this trade so far…
Hourly Chart SP 500 tried to push through the 200 MA at 1287.14 after hitting this wall of resistence it pullback in the 3 trading hours and then in the fourth trading hour it made a second strike at the 200 MA resistence level…and failed..leaving a very long shadow on the hourly chart….the next hour the Bulls played dead…forming a doji prices closed on the hour trading at the same place level they open the hour….so the MACD historgram on the hourly is making lower lows…trending back to the zero mark….StochRSI (100) on the hourly is at .962 coming off the 1.00 level….a good solid break below .80 level…will be a good sign we go to down to test support.
I took a small loss yesterday on Apple shares because I went long to early after the pullback..sold right at the close…for a $520 loss but I made a gain in another trade with Visa which help offset the loss….but overall I\’m way up with Apple shares…and doing very well for the month and year….very happy with my trading.
I\’m going to hold a tight stop loss with the current position, say at 1288 just above the 200 MA on the hourly…
I took a somewaht assertive attitude by going short yesterday at 1281…now I\’m going to take aggressive action and allow this small position to develop. I could take a small profit at the open or pre-market..but I\’m feeling with the Elliott Wave pattern there is significantly (sp) lower prices ahead for the SP 500…so I\’m going to manage this trade accordingly.
Gold and Silver and the Metals are in Wave 3 of 5 down….the Federal reserve Note (USD) they call it today is trending up…
Crude is wave 3 down….
So odds favor Debt Equities any solid pullback is a opportunity to buy….
Tried to purchase the New iPhone yesterday, but I can\’t stand waiting for service, the store is out of stock and they want you to purchase and wait for the phone to come in..sorry not my way of doing business.
I might go long Apple shares in the coming days ahead…when the StochasticRSI (100) gets oversold enough.
Our Cashless society is kinda strange in someways, If you try and buy anything with Silver Dollars the stores employees are loss with the true value of the Real money….but they sure understand the cashless concept of credit card, debit ect…very strange how over time the Corporations and banks brainwashed everyone into a whole different way of thinking process.
My Silver Dollars are worth at least $25 Federal Rerserve Notes..but the store employees can\’t seem to understand this truth.
Notes vs Silver dollar….kinda like If we told our parents someday the public would buy bottle water….for $4.00 bottle..our parents would of laugh at us….
Changing times……God bless
ELOHIM are you amos?
http://www.stockcharts.com
left hand side…click on Market Summary…..
Scroll down to NYSE McClellan Oscillator……its reading is at 65 today….
Short term top …odds favor…..with this Oscillator reaching these levels….
Futures are getting more and more negative….
I went short at 1281 today at the close…..
For a quick day trade….
I feel the market won\’t sell off much…
Frank, Nothing better than old time whipping….forty stripes by a judge would solve alot of our problems….the world children have become way to wild…
New charts.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/25052392@N05/2696702385/sizes/o/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/25052392@N05/2697518816/sizes/o/
SPX bumped into a wave line at 1291 Thursday. A slight variation on that line (not shown) has it crossing 1291-1292 tomorrow instead. Also, I have charted one possible EW count that still requires a "v of 5 of A" from 1200 and, as it stands, v=i projects to 1292. That count allows for a few points down Thursday morning before the spike up. A .382 Fib retrace of 1440–>1200=1291.6 and the previous degree 4th wave was at 1292.17. So, the short-term top could be in at 1291 as supported by NYMO, which is at its most bullish level since Feb 1st ending the last sharp rebound. But, there is an argument for a slightly higher high to 1292ish, hopefully with negative divergences if it occurs. On the low side Thursday, my first chart shows an uptrend line and downtrend line crossing just above 1270. So, I\’m expecting a 1270-1292 range tomorrow.
My potential number pattern #2 to 1275ish was eliminated today but favoring #2 or #3 kept me long up to 1276. I tried to go short today at 1288 but a site glitch stopped me and then I had all-day meetings, so I\’m waiting for the next setup. Although we surpassed the 86-88 point projection for #3, I was prepared for 1286-1292 for all the reasons listed above and I\’ve adjusted #3 ever so slightly. I\’ll be surprised by a move to 1316 before a 30+ pt correction, but 116-pt moves have shown up a bunch of times since October, so I won\’t go full boat short at any move to 1292 Thursday.
3. 1200–>1292–>1260/1240 (32/52 pts)–>1292/1304/1316/1328 (52-88 pts)4. 1200–>1314–>1263–>1316/1327
Good luck.
huh? Lots of politics and news in hear these days. Frank, I say turn the news off. You\’re a chart wizard. Plus Tony gave us the game plan days ago. I played 36 holes today and had my order go through at 1287 while consuming copious amounts of beer -all on credit!
. We have it pretty good in the USA, better enjoy it.
Frank
I hear you loud and clear..I\’m from the old school…Examples of such offenses to our free society would be public drunkenness, breach of peace, ect…going into debt…Mosiac law provides for the beating of the wicked man or woman to beaten before the judge according to their fault…Forty stripes was very common back in the days…Under the Mosaic Law code the ruling authorities could throw such persons into dark dungeons and even starve them to death for the good of the people as a whole.
Today you can\’t even spank your child in public….society is ran by bunch of nuts today.
Frank I hear you loud and clear…
Well apparently people don\’t live simple and smart… American, at least here in southern california, people LIKE to live above their means… PEOPLE LIKE TO OWN STUFF THEY CAN NOT AFFORD… they have this idea, because my friend or neighbor drive a bmw or mercedes so I have to drive one too! My friend just bought a million dollar house, so I have to buy one too! All these 0% interest are getting people to borrow way over their head… House of Import (Mercedes dealer) here, the slogan is "if you can afford a Camery we put you in a mercedes)… BEST BUY, 0% interest are big screen TV, item over $500… all these are making people keep on borrowing and buying stuff that they can not afford… They are living outside of their means and being irresponsible at the expense of others… Now everyone have to pay for their stupid mistake by paying for higher energy and food cost… they have devalue our living standard and devalue our dollar… and now government want to save their ass too (and the irresponsible bankers?!)
Crude is in wave 3 down…I don\’t know how low it will travel.
Natural gas is moving lower……
People tend to live way beyond their means….Most houses are way to big….to many rooms….
New cars, new everything..people love to go into debt….its something odd about how people will buy things on the credit game.
Live a simple and uncomplex life and your will be more happy…
I\’m short with SDS…..as of the close today…….looking for a pullback to at least 1240
Go to http://www.cnbc.com/id/15837856
Scroll down to "Rise of The Super Rich"
Untold Wealth…..watch the first item about Tim Durham how he lives…..
One woman sold her website for $23 Million…..
Its unreal how some people live….
"Crude is going lower.." where do you think crude will stop?
1. Don\’t buy Gold or Silver….
Gold is going down down…Silver is going down…….eos…
Crude is going lower..Metals are going lower…
The Dow is going up up up….after this next wave 2 or wave B pullback…
Do not get caught up in the Media crap of their bashing the American economy….the economy is fine now..
The stock market is going to have a minor pullback then its off to wave C ….
The Federal Reserve Note (USD) is going up…..
EOS!!
White Spinning Top was formed on the NYA…..today….This Candlestick pattern is often a key reversal pattern.
Plus, the last three Candlesticks fomred what they call "Bearish Deliberation Pattern" ….Confirmation is needed….
I took a small short position with SDS at the close….I might just keep adding to my position If the trading pattern looks like it going to pullback….1240 or lower is in the cards….on this pullback….
Frank as remote as a depression hitting America is, its as remote as being eaten by piranhas, so keep your toes on the riverbank. Best strategy is to stay out of debt and augment your means at the sametime as you lessen your wants. Live smart.
And I\’m sure the rest of the world will fall into place….all government are on the Fiat system of money..so everyone is currently in the same boat…its just a matter of which Government acts first and returns to somekind of real money system.
Change won\’t be easy thing for most people to handle when it comes into play.
But we as a people always adapt to changes….
Frank, I read your comments and after that just bought
silver e-mini contract on my Roth IRA account. Looks like silver did ABC after
impulse wave.
The gold long trade is a tough one. Too easy to jump on. Maybe you\’ll get a small pop when SP500 drops, so you can get out with a profit.
the whole fed bailout of big banks and mortgage companies is like pouring water in a pool which is draining water. They need to fix the leak first, adding more water won\’t solve the problem but it will make it so you can still swim temporarily.
+, yes, but would please someone tell me why the hell is people still buying US of A debt? Why is our rating still AAA? Where the hell is government going to get the money to pay for all these crap??!!
"Someone please explain this to me… Congress just pass to allow to BUY UNLIMITED amont of FRE and FNM and spend UNLIMITED amount to back troubled mortage?!"
It\’s like switching one hand to cover one leak in the roof and taking it off another leak. There are too many leaks in the roof.
3BEPb, read this article. Bubble means scams, I know this mostly exagratted, but it\’s interesting
http://www.theinternationalforecaster.com/International_Forecaster_Weekly/ETF_Threat_to_Gold_and_Silver_Rallies
Plus they keep on saying moral hazard… if they pass this, this is the biggest moral hazard crap you are going to see… Most people who have lost 20-40% home value would opt not to pay and go BK already…. Here in southern california, forclosure rate has been highest in decades… when a home that is 20% or 30% under what you pay and keep on dropping, would you want to keep on paying mortagage or would you just say, ok, I\’ll just file BK and not have to pay an dime anymore?! And government are left with the sh**?! And they want to back this and pay this? Most people would opt for BK so they don\’t have to pay. Especially those people who have subprime where their principle would keep on growing bigger and bigger even though they pay every month. And that\’s why we have forclosure rate so high, because most people either can not pay anymore or they just decided is easier to not pay at all! So government going to pay for all these left overs?! Wow how generous… and again, may I ask where they going to get the money to pay these, while every year their spending is running RED?! The tax collected is not even enought to pay for all the spending and they have the extra 5 trillion laying around to pay for all these?! WTF! pardong my language…
Someone please explain this to me… Congress just pass to allow to BUY UNLIMITED amont of FRE and FNM and spend UNLIMITED amount to back troubled mortage?! I don\’t know what\’s going on?! And you think USD is not going to go down?! Gold or whatever that represent TRUE VALUES must shoot through the moon! Even now I\’m shaken to the core on USD that I have… What value would it have? Maybe I should start go buy physical gold and hide it under my mattress! This is crazy… so government suppose to spend UNLIMITED amount to back mortage that most likely will not be paid back and after that it got BACK PEOPLE\’s money in the bank through FDIC and on top of that they got buy FRE/FNM stock?! Where they get all these money if not through delution of USD?! Sure, they say taxpayer going to pay… HOW MUCH TAX DO WE COLLECT A YEAR?! They say this will cost anywhere between 50 billion to 5 trillion to do all these, I would argue maybe even more, much more! I don\’t get this, US government is a comprise of US Citizen… When US Citizen ARE FU**ING BROKE, where does government get their money?!
I think they are saying this just and hope that this bluff of saving everything would give confidence… when it come to really need to spend the money to SAVE all these crap, they don\’t have the money! If I were foreign US debt holder, I\’ll be sh**ing in my pants now… WHY WOULD FORIEGN country keep on subsidese all these crap?! One day all these going to all COLLAPSE! I truely don\’t know what\’s holding US of A together right now…
METALS: December gold futures closed down $29.30 at $929.40 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit another fresh two-week low. A stronger U.S. dollar and sharply lower crude oil prices sunk gold again today. Near-term chart damage occurred today as a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart was penetrated on the downside and negated.
___________
In my honest opinion, Gold is still just starting its wave 3 down….LikeI posted yesterday…Gold and Metals are going lower and lower…..
Nasdaq Tick yesterday was high…it fell alittle today…but I think July 15 lows are going to be tested….Apple shares went up in the very late minutes f todays trading..not a good sign….
I agree with Tonys comments, market seem to be ready to pullback…
Get ready and prepare yourself for the next pullback here is your second chance to pickup some cheap stocks.
Apple is going to look real good again….