SHORT TERM: market sells off again, DOW -167
Overnight the Asian markets were mostly lower, but India’s BSE rallied and China’s SSEC closed flat. Europe opened higher, but failed to sustain a rally closing -0.55%. US index futures traded higher overnight, and remained higher into the open despite the ADP jobs report dropping 79,000 in June. At the open the SPX hit 1292 and stayed in a narrow range. At 10:00 the Commerce Dept. reported factory orders were +0.6% in May. By 11:00 the market started to weaken, and a sharp drop to 1276 occurred by 12:30. By 2:00 the SPX had rallied back to 1284, but that rallied failed, and an even sharper drop followed into the close to SPX 1262. For the day the SPX/DOW were -1.65%, and the NDX/NAZ were -2.40%. Bonds gained 1/4 point, Crude made new highs +$3.25, Gold added $2.00, and the Euro was higher. Support for the SPX remains at 1261 and then 1240, with resistance at 1287 and then 1316. Short term momentum got overbought at the open, but turned lower. The near term indicators are still edging higher. Tomorrow the week ends in the US with non-farm payrolls at 8:30, and then the ISM services report at 10:00. While yesterday looked like classic bottoming action, today’s selling is testing that possibility. Suggest keeping a close eye on the support pivots. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend trying to hold SPX 1261 low
LONG TERM: bear market
Hi Tony,
Enjoy your holidays!! Thanks for your daily reports!!
Enjoy the holiday guys!
Hi Joe, probably around $140 on X, yes.
Gold was a bit overbought, support around $908.
Worst Bear markets and % decline
1929-32 67%1937-38 52%1961-62 33%1973-74 44%2000-01 37%
I switched to e minis yesterday. Playing for tiny swings 7 of 8 wins and I have no opinion!
frank, i see yesterday high end of wave 4 (complex flat), and wave 3 of 5.. iwm/ndx/indu seems like wave 3 action. isee at 150.
Tony, if today low hold, I guess today low would be wave 5 and yesterday\’s high would be wave 4?
Here\’s a possible count…adjustment to the Bearish Option 1
1292–>1276=16 (i)1276–>1285=9 (ii)1285–>1252=33 (iii) about 2x wave i1252–>1271=19 (iv) about 2x wave ii and a .6 retrace of iii1271ish 16-33 = 1239-1256
That would likely be the end of the move down from 1440 according to my counts. That means we should get a move lower going into the close or first thing Monday. I am buying 1/2 back into the market in my 401K, although I\’ll sell again soon – probably 8-12 days. Good luck and have a Happy 4th of July!
You\’ve got Tubed
Google will have to turn over every record of every video watched by YouTube users, including users\’ names and IP addresses, to Viacom, which is suing Google for allowing clips of its copyright videos to appear on YouTube
Nice work on the OBV call, Bud. Good going. Thanks.
scalped $200 in 2 minutes
it\’s a pizza party 
Stu – do you think the bottom is in yet?
I jumped back in with a solar stock and am up 4% already with a trailing 2% stop. Whoo!
Yes, please, let\’s stop with the racial slurs…
Anyway, good luck!
Frank, Can you temporarily suspend Lee\’s account. As he apologized yesterday and today he is doing same thing. Let this be lesson that peoplehave to bring sanity to this forum. It\’s a great forum and we don\’t want such posting.
If you all think this seems right to you, please show you support by posting
at least your 6yo can tell your wife what daddy does at work: F@CK and "BIG PUSSY"
$XOI opened higher then quickly moved to 1492.25 in the first few minutes of trading….XOI hourly story is it was in the 21 trading hour cycle, XOI pullback to a low reading of 1458.88 before ending its hourly close at 1475.73
The candlestick pattern on the hourly has long lower shadow….with upper shadow….EXXON (XOM) has white candlestick pattern on its hourly chart…i added to my long position as the market went lower….somekind of technical shakeout attempt.
I don\’t see any reason not to be long crude oil today….
God bless Amos
HAAAA I feel ur pain
Hi Tony,Nice call on X. where do you see the support? 130-140? Hope GLD gets below 90$…Joe
nope, not yet.
I\’m a big pussy today
sentiment from one extreme to another
looks that way slash u trading much 2 day?
looks like 1261 is ignored today. we passed it on the ay down, now up
nothing
If the Bearish Option 2 count is active, SPX could be just about to begin a 3 of 3 of 3 for 15-20 pts. We\’ll see.
sorry for all the posts Im at home trading in my boxers and watching the kids (Thanks Numers now my 6 year old keeps spelling FUCK now)…:p
Think thats the low for 2 day guys and gals ..short day remember.
Enjoying the chp-chop day from sideline (-;
its a fast market Numy maybe u should focus on that in stead of tryig to be a tough guy
Ha
, yup. It was a good trade. Thanks and good luck!
Hey Numers where am I wrong ? It went below 6100 then came back tested it then made new lows..
Nice trade Sue ! This thing will whip around today ..You can always put them back out
You are wrong again, Chinese boy. That\’s twice in the last hour. As I said, I\’ll be willing to take the other side of your trades all the time.
I\’m out, but this thing is going to 1240 at least.
6100 pivot held good luck all
ISM 48.2 yuck
Hey we should start a "Swear Jar" or "Cussing Cup" I start throwing the F bomb around now ole Numers is throwing it at me.All proceeds to Tony !!
Anyway my work is done got ole numers panties in a bunch
ok bed wetter
Thanks 4 posting about selling the open geniouses
I\’m up on my shorts this morning, was down slightly at the open but not enough to trigger my stops, going to tighten my stops. Waiting for last Wave 5-v-v-v-v… to complete, and this is probably going to explode to the upside. Good luck!
Good stuff Stu !! Thanks and good luck 2 u !
The move down from 1285 to 1261 was impulsive. It could have been "c" of a zigzag 2, but the depth of the retrace and the lack of any decent subwaves still has me leaning bearish. A 10 pt bounce was due any time since there was no more than a 3-pt bounce from 1285.
Bearish Option 1
1292–>1276=16 pts (i of v of 5)
1276–>1285=9 pts (ii)
1285–>1261=24 pts=1.5xi (iii)
1261–>1270-1275=.38-.62 Fib retrace (iv) …should not exceed 1276…1273 was potential previous degree 4th…1270 = ii
–>1254-1259=wave i (v)
Bearish Option 2
1292–>1276=16 pts (i of v of 5)
1276–>1285=9 pts (ii)
1285–>1261=24 pts=1.5xi (i of iii)
1261–>1270-1275=.38-.62 Fib retrace (ii of iii) …can exceed 1276
—>1215-1230 at completion
Bullish Option 1
1261–>1292=31 pts (1 of a)
1292–>1261=31 pts (2 of a)
1261–>1232?=62 pts (3 of a) must first exceed 1276, then 1285, then 1292 to eliminate bullish options
Remember the market closes at 1 PM so it may leave us hanging until Monday.
Somebody asked me about buying financials on the next SPX bounce. Probably a good idea if you protect yourself from a bank failure or such reasonable catastrophe. BKX is now just 5% above its 1998 low at $55 which is where it will likely head if SPX breaks lower another 3-4% as is possible. That would probbaly mark a very great short-term buying opportunity on BKX or XLF. Good luck.
Cristian, nice fork!
wow! good thing I closed all my shorts yesterday
Abbreviated Trading Hours Today
7/3/2008 7:53:43 AM – Holiday Hours: All listed Equity products will close at 12:00pm CDT today. Listed Equity Index and Index Futures will close at 12:15pm CDT.
Lee, you mean Amos has predicted wrongly?
LeeJuly 03 8:37 AM
(http://cid-819eda3aaf78139f.spaces.live.com/)
Still early but yes no crash as of yet….Trichet talking right now….futures up +800 I just made a killing ..we are so happy
futures making new highs.. we basically just rallied 8 "handles" straight up to 7250 looks like all stops right now ,the day session should clear things up.
7150 high in the minis 125975 low trading around 6400 and 6600 now. U guys awake ??????
Still early but yes no crash as of yet….Trichet talking right now….futures up +800 I just made a killing ..we are so happy
This is weird, I guess I\’m wrong… Oil is shooting up, job report worst then expected… -62K and unemployement worst then exptect at 5.5%… and market still going up??
Crude Oil just popped to $146.34 at 2:13 am…..Outstanding!!!
I think the Fireworks are about to start exploding……
God Bless Amos
damn.. sorry, I posted the wrong link.. Isn\’t there any way to edit a message?This is the correct link:http://img235.imageshack.us/img235/8522/immagine10503072008fh4.jpg
An update of the Andrew\’s pitchfork on the weekly charthttp://img71.imageshack.us/img71/1018/immagine10426062008ne6.jpg
Currently at 1:36 am Crude oil is trading at $145.88…edging higher…..
You must be present to win…..God bless Amos
Tonys website has WTIC Daily action with Wave 5 would equal Wave 1 If prices hit $147 level..
Thursday is exactly 21 trading days from the 121.61 low….RSI (5) is currently at 78.64
Overnight WTIC has hit $145.75 as the current high….
looking very good to hit $147 level today…
I\’m currently long DIG at the close of today..
God bless Amos
July 3, 2008 I\’m expecting a very ugly day to the downside, I posted many days ago that july 3rd would be somekind of turning point low….its 55 trading days from April 18….34 + 21 = 55 One complete cycle….or circle…..
I tooka strong position with DIG at the very close, it took 7 orders to get filled at $115.45 price….I was filled at 115.45 ..115.48 and 75 and 116.25….116.10 levels…..
My total cost price is $115.95…..
June 4, 2008 DIG pullback to under $110 level, then June 5 it gapped open and ran to just below $120 level…
Huge movement in one trading day….
I\’m expecting June 3rd to do the same….today DIG went above $125 level but then sold off to trade below the $116 level….
Nasdaq is going to sell off on thursday….down shes goes…
dollar is very weak…lower she goes too….
Crude oil tonight, hit a all time high…I can\’t seem to figure out just yet what wave crude might be in..
Either its a wave 2 and today was Wave B of that wave 2 or its in wave 3…
I\’m thinking its Wave 2 of B and wave C will at least take the XOI to its 8 day moving average…..
Anyways its tradable and thats all that really matters at this point in time. RSI (5) is very oversold on the XOI and at the close it was in the 20th trading hour cycle…..which I feel going back in its hourly history cycles….its at the lows..and ready to rebound upwards..
I\’m long DIG….
God bless Amos
I just think a crash will be fun to watch
Dude, crashes are for making money, not for watching. During Oct 1987 crash people made 2000% or more just in 1 day. It\’s maybe onece in a decade opportunity
Lee, I am not positioned either way. All cash though all the people who trade FX think the odds of a crash are more than 50% due to the confluence of events taking place with a holiday on Friday and Europe/Asia trading.If not tomorrow, surely chance of a Black Monday are high if USD is below 70 over the weekend.All comes down to Trichet.I just think a crash will be fun to watch and give me a good entry to go long. My definition of a crash is 5% down atleast on all indices.
Where will be no market crash this or next week.
First possibility of a crash will be in August between Solar and Lunar Eclipses.
This cycle should bottom within days with "dead cat" bounce afterward to "kiss goodbye" our lovely trendline from 1974 on the Dow. She served us well for 34 years (a Fibo number!)
Stu,
I sent you private message with info you requested.
Buba…..
It appears\’ you OBV is more negative. Hmmm. Interesting to see how
the information plays out, then.
Need to tweak my ending comment a bit. I looked over the OBV charts,
for GE and AXP and there is evidence of accumulation, so the SPY OBV
there for, positive pattern at the moment, might just remain so. That\’s all.
Here\’s some real simple-minded TA: draw a line connecting the Jan & Mar lows. Tommorrow it comes in at 1225.
Further, I am assuming that minute wave 5 of 5 started at 1292.17 so if:w5 = w1 then the bottom comes in at 1230.12w5 = w3 then the bottom comes in at 1228.54
I suppose minute wave 5 could extend, too.
OBV readings on ES futures chart for last 2 days ():yesterday\’s low -140k, today\’s low -210k. and today\’s high ~ +3k.
2 indicators, both have a high reliability.
SPY OBV - is currently at on a Bullish, Nonconfirmation signal.
Meaning. The OBV low was 7/1 (thus far) at 127.53. The OBV
data is higher now, today. With a close of 126.18. The price then is lower than that of 7/1, but the OBV is higher.
The Walter Bressert Double stochastic 30 is still lying on the bottom.
Meaning there is no positive force available, to move price higher.
Bottomline is that there are 2 good indicators which currently
have differing signals.
My guess, only a guess is that the Bressert signal is more
correct, or likely. The OBV low can get killed should there
be a mini panic event. I am looking at the 1245 level for a
low should we press down below 1261 Thrusday.
Thursday is a shorten trading day?
im sticking by my view that wave v of 3 ended at 1261 yesterday. Then wave 4 started… Today was wave B of 4…. we could even gap up tomorrow..
Why does it seem you have to be angry to be a bear??? I mean if its anarchy you want are u prepared for it?
What I\’m saying is "Are you packing"? Do you have a survival plan? Or do you want the markets to go where u want then stop going lower?? I\’m just wondering??
Perfect storm, no where to run, banks to zero? Man, we must be real close to a very important low
By the way $VIX has successfully close above the long term broken uptrend line… so maybe time for it to shoot up again!
As I stated before, tech earning season might be the wake up call for bull who still believe in the bull market alive… tech earning season will kill the only hideout for the left over bull… bear market will drag EVERYTHING DOWN… no place to hide… and no place to run for the bulltards…
NQ down 10 handles on NVDA\’s 20% plunge on profit warning. Stage set for a crash even before the expected catalysts surfaced.Trichet it\’s upto you. Go down in history as the person who caused a repeat of 1987.
It\’s a joke……
GM car\’s, gets gas mileage; worse than Ford.
The Ford Model T…….:)
Also Thursday after hrs i.e. Fed is going to release how much Bear stearns asset have depreciated. I think tuesday will be key reversal. Until then short is the name of game. Bank could go down to zero on this news.
Unless as always data is correctly mis-interpreted.
Tomorrow might be perfect storm to prove Hindenburg Omen…? Euro raise rate, USD crash, Oil shoot through the roof and Job report is sh** = Market crash!