SHORT TERM: market ekes out a gain, DOW +4
Overnight the Asian markets were mostly lower with only Hong kong’s HSI displaying a gain. Europe opened mixed and closed mixed. US index futures were lower overnight but rallied heading into the open and the market opened unchanged. A small bounce up, and then a pullback into 10:00, put in the low for the day at SPX 1275. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was announced improving at 49.6%, but still contracting. Failing to take out fridays low at 1272, the market rallied until 1:00 as Crude sold off, putting in the high for the day at 1290. After that the market created a zigzag into the close to end the day slightly positive. At the close the SPX/DOW were +0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.00%. Bonds gained about 1/4 point, Crude was 25 cents higher, Gold lost $2.50 and the Euro was lower. For the month the SPX/DOW were -9.4%. Support for the SPX remains at 1261 and then 1240, with resistance at 1287 and then 1316. Again today the market failed to break through the 1287 pivot. Short term momentum moved up to neutral during the rally and ended there. The near term indicators edged slightly higher as well. Tomorrow June ISM and construction spending at 10:00. Not much of a relief rally today off friday’s 1272 low, only about 18 points. Would have expected a bit more to complete Minute wave iv. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend continues
LONG TERM: bear market
Procter & Gamble (PG) Pull up the Monthly Chart data….with RSI 14 and EMA 15 and EMA 20…..
The RSI 14 is under 50 level…….this is not good.
Price is closed under the EMA 15 and EMA 20…this is not good.
back in 2000 the same exact thing took place..and the market crashed……
July 2 2008 Cardinal (PANIC) Moon…..exactly like Jan 22, 2008…
Ezekiel chapter 9 The lord gave a order to place a mark on the righteous foreheads, and later the Lord gave a order for his servants to take a weapon in their hand and kill anyone old and young and even little children if they did not have his mark upon their forehead…..The Elders and Priests went about cleansings the city of the wicked and worldy children…who refused to obey the Prophets of their time by becoming righteous and obeying his command to mark their forehead with his mark. Each man and woman walked in their own ways, doing their own thing. it got so wicked..that the Lord had to cleanse the land of these children who walked in their own light….Israel is about to do the same exact thing in our modern day…to its enemies its preparing 360,000 graves…..Islam is walking around the middle east and even they have travel to America to hurt our way of life….the Lord is ready to cleanse the earth of this axis of evil. The next few days of trading, has very high odds of turning ona dime and crashing to a low…..I would not be long for very long If I was you…..Middle east breaking news will send the cash market to negative ina flash.
I have no position in the market, might go short in the proper time…..
God bless Amos
I almost believed you
the world markets like we look at sectors.
They all have their specialities.
Stu
I see banks $BKX broke 2002 support
do you think they could even sustain some sort of rally?
unless they fall even lower in 2 days – so rally will be "kiss goodbye" back to resistance
Hi! One can look at the world markets like we look at sectors.
They all have their specialities.
Closed out my long position in Dig today, for a very nice profit……
Currently, i have no position in the market, sitting on the sidelines waiting for the next set up.
I feel the $WTIC might be ina huge wedge formation and its hitting its upper channel line..
Its either going to pullback in wave 2 or wave 4 movement before moving up in wave 5..
volume yesterday was light, xom is hitting its channel..can\’t seem to breakout..
The way to play this is wait for pullbacks on the RSI (5) and then go long…trading it…
God bless Amos
This has been most diffcult in my short trading span, I am just sitting on sidline now with king cash and with one
long short from 1420.
and bears should protect 1304 (not breach 1310)?
Tony,
.. but just noted your reply to HD and Joe.. 1267 looks like a line bulls will try to protect for the moment.. 
..
Looks to me like 1-2-3-4-i-ii-iii on daily
tony
why do you think this nonconfirmation between many world indecies?
some broke their lows, some not
i can count 1-2-3-4-i-ii-iii.. i think the mkt needs to get out of oversold for final washout (or truncated last wave?).. maybe the 30+ is now.. holding low of 2 days ago and bounced off tony\’s 1260.. like stu said.. looks choppy but if morph into impulsive, i think should not breach 1267.. please feel free to correct as i am still learning..
It\’s more of ppl covering shorts then market heading bull.
Hi Hd, action just like today.
Gap down – fill the gap - then lower lows - and close higher.
Hi Joe, Intermediate wave A … yes
Hi Satish, the pivot points are still posted on the SPX charts. Chart Link
Joe,
we can sell Amos to arabs
Tony, could major \’a\’ be over? nice call on 1260 turn….3BEP, trading with wrong information is lethal to financial health. you think a cia operative will revel his identity so easily? haha, im sure that information is itself probably worth several millions…
Tony, could major \’a\’ be over? nice call on 1260 turn….3BEP, trading with wrong information is lethal to financial health. you think a cia operative will revel his identity so easily? haha, im sure that information is itself probably worth several millions…
ooops.. too fast
.. Praveen, just wanted to say Amos has an superb trading skills and I do learn alot from him as well .. I value his views in discussions too.. although war is not my fav subject 
maybe ECB + jobs will trigger capitulation?
AAPL, GOOG, RIMM all in tradable up 4’s Great day!
Tony, What do you look for to mark a 5th wave completion or failure.
Praveen, I second that!
Praveen ShamainJuly 01 2:28 PM
(http://Praveen-Shamain.spaces.live.com/)
Sorry for multiple postings, Guys.
It appears that even my key board is annoyed !!
Stu,
embedded STO (STO becomes embedded if it stays in 80/20 area for at least 3 periods of time)http://lh6.ggpht.com/Slash850/SGp62lGhHqI/AAAAAAAAAJE/ALmXVX5rUVc/embsto1.jpg
Scenario 4 (ED) is dead, at least the version I was considering. An uglier expanded version is possible but unlikely.
Scenario 3 (running flat) is alive until 1283 is breached. This scenario considered this morning\’s bounce as wave c of 4. As partial confirmation, the move down from 1283 looked like an impulsive 5 waves while the move back up has been choppier. If true, SPX is about to experience wave iii of v of 5 and we should see 1256 tested quickly once it does start (probably by end of day or at the Wednesday open) before a final capitulation v of v of 5. If false, 1283 will be breached and I\’ll need to re-evaluate counts.
There are some shakeouts going on. That\’s for sure. But, gold seems poised for a run at $956 and oil for a run at $145-150 and that wouldn\’t be good for SPX so I\’m still leaning bearish here but very cautiously so.
I don\’t know about embedded STO. Show me a chart about your observations.
CPC is back to being lower on the day now in neautral sentiment territory, although ISEE has swung lower near bearish extremes. Getting both of them to extreme bearishness would trigger a long for me but we may need one or two more washouts it seems or I\’m just not going to get my perfect setup.
Sorry for multiple postings, Guys.
It appears that even my key board is annoyed !!
i for one would like to know when something is about to go down in the middle east and i appreciate amos sharing his info with all of us because more than likely we don\’t all have a CIA contact.
Dear Amos,
], Iran/Isreal War, Missiles etc. But, I guess, we, forum members don\’t require them to trade in few stocks/contracts.
Please note that Mr. Tony has provided us this platform to discuss Elliott/OEW related market info.
We are very much impressed with your advanced knowledge on happenings in CIA [????
I hereby request you to kindly restrict your postings on Elliott/OEW related stuff. Otherwise, this great forum loses the relevance.
With Regards,
Praveen Shamain
Goa – India
Dear Amos,
], Iran/Isreal War, Missiles etc. But, I guess, we, forum members don\’t require them to trade in few stocks/contracts.
Please note that Mr. Tony has provided us this platform to discuss Elliott/OEW related market info.
We are very much impressed with your advanced knowledge on happenings in CIA [????
I hereby request you to kindly restrict your postings on Elliott/OEW related stuff. Otherwise, this great forum loses the relevance.
With Regards,
Praveen Shamain
Goa – India
Dear Amos,
], Iran/Isreal War, Missiles etc. But, I guess, we, forum members don\’t require them to trade in few stocks/contracts.
Please note that Mr. Tony has provided us this platform to discuss Elliott/OEW related market info.
We are very much impressed with your advanced knowledge on happenings in CIA [????
I hereby request you to kindly restrict your postings on Elliott/OEW related stuff. Otherwise, this great forum loses the relevance.
With Regards,
Praveen Shamain
Goa – India
Dear Amos,
], Iran/Isreal War, Missiles etc. But, I guess, we, forum members don\’t require them to trade in few stocks/contracts.
Please note that Mr. Tony has provided us this platform to discuss Elliott/OEW related market info.
We are very much impressed with your advanced knowledge on happenings in CIA [????
I hereby request you to kindly restrict your postings on Elliott/OEW related stuff. Otherwise, this great forum loses the relevance.
With Regards,
Praveen Shamain
Goa – India
Dear Amos,
], Iran/Isreal War, Missiles etc. But, I guess, we, forum members don\’t require them to trade in few stocks/contracts.
Please note that Mr. Tony has provided us this platform to discuss Elliott/OEW related market info.
We are very much impressed with your advanced knowledge on happenings in CIA [????
I hereby request you to kindly restrict your postings on Elliott/OEW related stuff. Otherwise, this great forum loses the relevance.
With Regards,
Praveen Shamain
Goa – India
Dear Amos,
], Iran/Isreal War, Missiles etc. But, I guess, we, forum members don\’t require them to trade in few stocks/contracts.
Please note that Mr. Tony has provided us this platform to discuss Elliott/OEW related market info.
We are very much impressed with your advanced knowledge on happenings in CIA [????
I hereby request you to kindly restrict your postings on Elliott/OEW related stuff. Otherwise, this great forum loses the relevance.
With Regards,
Praveen Shamain
Goa – India
amos,
the only people that suffers during wars are the helpless commoners who have no say over their lifes.. i think if people are only interested in making money at the expense of human lives, then we, as mankind, have failed miserably… money – there is only so much that we need. there are more important things in life. JMHO.
more of your amazing market insights pleazzeee and less war.. peace everyone..
The B-52H BUFF [Big Ugly Fat Fellow] is the primary nuclear roled bomber in the USAF inventory. It provides the only Air Launch Cruise Missile carriage in the USAF. The B-52H also provides theater CINCs with a long range strike capability. The bomber is capable of flying at high subsonic speeds at altitudes up to 50,000 feet (15,166.6 meters). It can carry nuclear or conventional ordnance with worldwide precision navigation capability.
XOI is moving up…………..
Wave 3 is ongoing, next stop $150…….plus….
God bless Amos
GM better than expected sales decline
I\’ll wait til it clearly breaks 1260
flat again its all yours boys going back downstairs
closed out all my shorts abit too early on Monday but since the 1260 target met I am taking long positions now…I think MOS and POT look decent given that it has retraced 50% of its recent rise.
Local $1 Store got "CIA" hats shipment from China?
)
General Muhammad Ali Jafari said Iran would also cut off the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf, a route taken by 60 per cent of the world\’s oil tankers.
\’Oil prices will dramatically increase,\’ he added.
God bless Amos
Short DXD here. RSI on DXD at 96+ with a bearish candlestick.
I closed all shorts at 1260
Tony\’s 1261 worked
Im long
risking 5800 in EP
Wow! I\’m up 40%in just 1 hour! I love this market
Thanks, Stu and Tony!
amos,
wow, wonder how u read ur chart? thanks goodness i was out of my speculative long for a small loss. thanks for extending my trading life… let me know when u think market has bottomed ! TIA!
u did it again!
Yes, come on, capitulate! Get to 1214 and maybe I\’ll get my first order of long in…
Stu,
do you know how embedded STO is related to waves?
I feel like there\’s some kind correlation
Nice call Amos !
Im flat S&P now…It can go lower without me…I\’ll be lurking waiting to catch a pop
amos said wave c of wave 4 – anyone saw the same thing? stu does not even have this as a possibility? Thanks.
Thanks Amos the Feds will be shutting us down soon.
What\’s all this talk of shorting Gold?
Nice, SPX Sto got embedded on 5min and MACD points down
Amos,All along your rant has been a joke but it peaked when you said this. "My
cousin David workes for the American CIA in Lebanon and he saying
Isreal is about to cut off the shipments through the waterways…."If this is really true, most likely you and/or him will be compromised and not be alive to read my post.
True about waiting for the closing values on CPC and ISEE. I\’d say a close above 1.3 and under 90 respectively would make me feel much more comfortable about going long for a reversal but other evidence must be weighed too.
I would not feel comfortable shoritng gold right without a paired trade or very small position due to its potential 4th wave completion, but the next SPX bounce could be a very short-term opportunity to do so, especially if gold stops around $956+/-.
Now that SPX overlapped the potential wave i at 1280 that I labeled this morning, I see a few possibilities…
1. SPX is done going down. This is not likely given the structure down from 1290, but a move above 1290 makes it more likely especially if you see 5 waves. A leading diagonal may have already finished up from 1267 to 1283.
2. SPX is still in iv of 5 as an irregular flat. I don\’t like the look but would allow a move near the 1304 wave 3 end.
3. SPX is still in iv of 5 as a running flat. Rare, but I like this b/c I can see a 3-3-5 with an ED just finished at 1283.
4. SPX Wave v of 5 has morphed into an ED in which case 1288-1290 should not be surpassed and the next large bounce should overlap this morning\’s 1267 low.
The SPX down move from 1440 is over if 1304 is crossed and possibly over if 1290 is bettered. I favor scenarios 3 and 4 which should not see 1288-1290 surpassed to be true and will be confirmed if SPX drops below this morning\’s low at 1267. New projections are tough without seeing more minute waves develop, but I still like the 1255-1270 zone and 1215-1230 as analyzed previously. Scenario 1 will be favored if 1267 holds and then 1283 is surpassed. Good luck.
Lower-end Possibility
Scenario 3 (running flat)
wave iv of 5 (1272–>1290–>1267–>1283)
wave v of 5 (1283-63=1220)?
Scenario 4 (ED)
wave iv of 5 (1272–>1290)
wave v of 5 (1290-63=1227)?
"something big is about to happen"
)
"he saying Isreal is about to cut off the shipments through the waterways…."
Wow! It\’s BIG, people! Very very BIG! Buy FedEx and UPS! if waterways cut off only airways are left
All of my cantacts in the middle east are saying something big is about to happen…..My cousin David workes for the American CIA in Lebanon and he saying Isreal is about to cut off the shipments through the waterways….
XOI is starting to move up in Wave 5 action….DIG is moving up as well….Equities are in wave c up of wave 4..they are about to sell off big time..
I hope your in Crude Oil….dig is the play…
God bless Amos
I suppose minute 5 could also be starting out with 1,2,1,2 and big drop dead ahead.
QID,DXD or banks good too
Stu – does minute 4 seemed to morphed from a simple ABC to an irregular ABC with c projected to end around 1290?
QID short are still good?
Vix in some sort of wave 5 with minimum target 27-28
just kidding
As STu stated earlier CBOE was high.. but now it has retrived quite a bit… down to 1.18 and ISEE is back above 100 now at around 110… day is not over… again, no fear, buy the dip… we are back at 1280s… so any more higher I would start shorting again… no capitulation… the pre-market capitulation was a bear trap… but I want to see some sort of regular capitulation, like 500 points drop on dow and 50 point on SPX… probably will happen in wave 5, it seems if we keep going up, we are in wave 4… which another good short opportunity…
anybody on VIX? ISSM? CBOE etc
I think I am seeing some activity in \’C\’, have been observing it for a while. May be reversal happens around 11:30-12:00 we will see big move upto consolidation
stu.
what do you think about shorting gold say tomorrow? for $20-30 drop
Stu,
I like 1227
we just closed the open gap
actually 1 point shy on SPX
stu, yes CPCis very high same or higher then March/Jan… but let see how they close… because 1.5 is the closing number at Jan and Mar… we are only open right now… and ISEE is ok, 85, not too low…
we just closed the open gap on SPY… so if we keep going up we might get a good short squeeze and do the wave 4? and one more wave 5 to come?
CPC is at 1.6 – very high. ISE is just above extreme lows for the 2nd day. They indicate we are likely within 1 day of a reversal as all the other evidence has been telling us too.
well..guess premarket was the low of wave 3? well, not the capitulation I was looking for… premarket capitulation is not so much… but I guess maybe wave 5 will see a good amount of capitulation during regular hours… Maybe bad job report will sent the market to wave 5 low…
Frank do you see captulation?
jump on ISM
Looks like wave iii of v of 5 of 1/A from 1440 is definitely in progress.
1440–>1373 (1) = 67 pts
1373–>1406 (2) = 33 pts
1406–>1331 (3) = 75 pts
1331–>1367 (4) = 36 pts
1367–>1304 (i) = 63 pts
1304–>1336 (ii) = 32 pts
1336–>1272 (iii)= 64 pts
1272–>1290 (iv)= 18 pts
1290–>1280 (i of v) = 10 pts
1280–>1288 (ii of v) = 8 pts
1288–>???? (iii of v)
If Wave v of 5 is equal to i and iii, target is…
1290-63=1227
If wave iii of v is 2x wave i of v with iv/v = i/ii, target is…
1288–>1268 (iii of v)
1268–>1276 (iv of v)
1276–>1266 (5)
The next bounce should be met with at least one more drop. If that bounce is only 4-6 points, I suspect we are still in iii. The next 8-12 pt bounce should mark wave iv to be followed by a wave v of any length (likely at least 10 pts). Good luck.
As soon as tomorrow, when we get $150 oil
just kidding :p
holy cow! Maybe we get capitulation today!
Dear Tony
Thanks on your blog gr8 depth, I am linked here from long, often I miss your previous comments and targets, can we have link where you give your Target in graphical mode on chart . currently it is marked after it happens.
If you have a chart on possbile bounce or fall levels in graphical format it is gr8 with WAVE\’s Marked, You can mark it on existing first chart itself.
Other, Where vi will end or ended now.
Will we go stright down don\’t we need a side move now it is too steep.
Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) is reading 32.00 Do we need to reach 25 or 23.00 before bounce comes.
regards
Satish K
amos,
Good calls! You mentioned Qs will see 45 before bouncing, crude moving up and XOM looks good. Good day everyone!
Oh-oh! RUN Buffett, run! Jim Rogers already left. Soon there\’ll be no billionairs in the US.That is kinda "CHANGE we can believe in" shit
Prosecutors asked to require Swiss bank UBS AG to turn over information on its U.S. customers who may have used secret accounts to evade taxes.
The unprecedented step comes as a Justice Department investigation into the bank is heating up. Earlier this month, Bradley Birkenfeld, a former UBS private banker, pleaded guilty to conspiracy and said the bank helped wealthy U.S. citizens conceal $20 billion in assets and evade income tax laws.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aT6g1jpK9Bkg&refer=home
I say let\’s start trading AIR first, and if we\’re not yet dead by than we can trade bandwidth
I say let\’s start trading AIR first, and if we\’re not yet dead by than we can trade bandwidth
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/30/technology/30byte.html?_r=2&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&partner=rssnyt&adxnnlx=1214870997-r6Kp40TVQmZ+yayp67eyPwan exchange to trade bandwidth.i got a feeling that\’s not going to turn out great….
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/30/technology/30byte.html?_r=2&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&partner=rssnyt&adxnnlx=1214870997-r6Kp40TVQmZ+yayp67eyPwan exchange to trade bandwidth.i got a feeling that\’s not going to turn out great….
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/30/technology/30byte.html?_r=2&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&partner=rssnyt&adxnnlx=1214870997-r6Kp40TVQmZ+yayp67eyPwan exchange to trade bandwidth.i got a feeling that\’s not going to turn out great….
Interesting view a-b-c
"Tuesday have been bounce back days"
)
as long as Wednesday is a hump day, she can bounce all Tuesday