SHORT TERM: market finishes mixed in directionless day, DOW flat
Overnight the Asian markets were all lower, but Europe opened higher and closed +0.50%. US index futures traded higher overnight and the market gapped up a few points at the open as the SPX hit 1324 within the opening minutes, the high for the day. A choppy pullback followed until around 12:30 when the SPX neared the lows of the downtrend (1314) hitting 1315. Then another small rally and pullback followed into the close. For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.80%. Bonds lost about 1/4 point, Crude gained $1.70, Gold dropped $18.50, and the Euro was lower. Support for the SPX remains at 1316 and then 1287, with resistance at 1327 and then 1344. The market stayed within the 1316 – 1327 pivot range today. Short term momentum ended just below neutral, while the near term indicators edged up slightly. From fridays low at 1314 there has not been much of a rally, 1324 the high today. Counting todays action as all or part of minute wave iv/Minor wave 5 of this downtrend. The next decline could put in the low for the downtrend ending minute wave v/Minor wave 5, unless this downtrend extends. The key level to watch would be DOW 11,673. If exceeded an extension is likely underway. Tomorrow Case-Shiller reports its monthly price analysis of the housing market at 9:00. Then at 10:00 the OFHEO home price report and Consumer sentiment. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend from SPX 1440 may be close to a bottom
LONG TERM: bear market