SHORT TERM: market finishes mixed in directionless day, DOW flat
Overnight the Asian markets were all lower, but Europe opened higher and closed +0.50%. US index futures traded higher overnight and the market gapped up a few points at the open as the SPX hit 1324 within the opening minutes, the high for the day. A choppy pullback followed until around 12:30 when the SPX neared the lows of the downtrend (1314) hitting 1315. Then another small rally and pullback followed into the close. For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.80%. Bonds lost about 1/4 point, Crude gained $1.70, Gold dropped $18.50, and the Euro was lower. Support for the SPX remains at 1316 and then 1287, with resistance at 1327 and then 1344. The market stayed within the 1316 – 1327 pivot range today. Short term momentum ended just below neutral, while the near term indicators edged up slightly. From fridays low at 1314 there has not been much of a rally, 1324 the high today. Counting todays action as all or part of minute wave iv/Minor wave 5 of this downtrend. The next decline could put in the low for the downtrend ending minute wave v/Minor wave 5, unless this downtrend extends. The key level to watch would be DOW 11,673. If exceeded an extension is likely underway. Tomorrow Case-Shiller reports its monthly price analysis of the housing market at 9:00. Then at 10:00 the OFHEO home price report and Consumer sentiment. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend from SPX 1440 may be close to a bottom
LONG TERM: bear market
Greenspan:
"Data suggests we are on the brink\’\’ of a recession in the U.S., Greenspan said.
The next year will be “a very sluggish period,\’\’ with a "highly volatile oil market.\’\’
Couldn\’t agree more. Expecting Q2 GDP at -1%. Crude should correct once it hits the $150ish level.
Greenspan stated when he left the FED in 2006; "inflation is likely to be the next problem.\’
Next year will be the year for extreme volatility in commodities, and higher prices.
Thanks for that bloomberg link ….
Amos, our resident prima donna.
Try this link. I think the people there will give you the attention you’re looking for.
http://www.drphil.com/messageboard/
Well, 5 waves down from SPX 1440 could be done. Tony has played this market like a fiddle recently. My alternative count (one more wave down from here) from early yesterday is still plausible if you count a truncated "v" yesterday. ISE and CPC are supportive of 1 more down move too, although I would say my symmetry analysis of a Tues/Wed botton at 1287-1300 could be considered fulfilled at 1304 today as well as Tony\’s 1300ish projection. http://www.flickr.com/photos/25052392@N05/2604481090/sizes/o/
Using my alternative count, since wave 2 of 5 was a zigzag (1331–>1348), the current wave 4 might be a flat 1304–>1326–>1304–>1326 +/- or a triangle. Either would cause the SPX to swing wildly until it dropped just before or around the Fed announcement. Then, we should get an immediate strong bounce although wave 5 could technically extend since wave 3 was longer than wave 1. I used 1306 as the projected wave 3 of 5 bottom yesterday, so today\’s 1304 low still supports the 1287 projection. If 5 waves are already completed from 1440, I wouldn\’t expect SPX to reach very close to 1304 again nor would I expect it to launch in a wave 3 prior to the Fed meeting so technical behavior and sentiment should be helpful in the next 24 hours. In any case, a short-term bottom appears imminent. Could last 3 days or 3 weeks. Could retrace 23% or 62%. Probably somewhere in between in both time and price. Good luck.
Wave C is underway on XOI and Exxon …Wave A sold off today in the morning…with Wave b bounce
once wave C ends..wave 3 will explode up to $94
God bless Amos
Here is the News release….jihad idiots take the blame..and iran….so if Iran wants a Nuke..lets just give them one….with U.S.A. stamped on the outside of it……i\’ll for the costs to transport it and drop it….
JERUSALEM – Palestinian militants on Tuesday fired three homemade rockets into southern Israel, the first such attack since a cease-fire between Israel and Gaza militants took effect last week.
ADVERTISEMENT
Israel condemned the attack as a "gross violation" of the truce, but did not say whether it would retaliate.
The barrage wounded two people and capped a day of violence that presented the truce with its first serious test.
Just before midnight, Palestinian militants fired a mortar shell into an empty area in southern Israel. And in a pre-dawn raid, Israeli troops killed two Palestinians in the West Bank city of Nablus.
Islamic Jihad, a small armed group backed by Syria and Iran, claimed responsibility for the rocket fire. Although the West Bank is not included in the truce, the group said the Nablus raid had soured the atmosphere of calm.
"We cannot keep our hands tied when this is happening to our brothers in the West Bank," the militant group said.
Hamas spokesman Sami Abu Zuhri said the rocket attack came because of "Israeli provocation this morning" and added that Hamas was "committed to the calm." He said Hamas will talk with other factions and make sure they are committed, too.
The Egyptian-brokered truce went into effect Thursday. The immediate aim was to end fighting that has killed seven Israelis and more than 400 Palestinians — many of them civilians — since Hamas gained control of Gaza a year ago.
It also obliges Israel to ease a punishing blockade of the coastal strip.
In a final stage, the sides are to address Hamas\’ demand to reopen a major border passage between Gaza and Egypt and Israel\’s insistence that Hamas release an Israeli soldier it has held for two years.
The cease-fire is meant to avert an Israeli invasion of Gaza, a tiny, impoverished seaside territory of 1.4 million people that Israel evacuated in 2005 after a 38-year military occupation.
The deal extends beyond Hamas to all militant groups operating in Gaza but does not include the West Bank.
Egypt acted as middleman for the six-month truce because Israel, like much of the international community, shuns Hamas for refusing to recognize Israel or renounce violence.
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert flew to Egypt on Tuesday for talks with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.
Upon entering the meeting in the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheik, Mubarak said the two would discuss efforts to release the Israeli soldier, Sgt. Gilad Schalit. Olmert hailed Egyptian efforts to end attacks on Israel from Gaza.
Israel has pressed Egypt to crack down on arms smuggling from Egypt\’s Sinai desert into Gaza.
On Tuesday, Olmert was quoted in the London-based Al-Sharq Al-Awsat daily as saying that if the smuggling did not end, then Israel would consider the cease-fire agreement violated, and "we will be compelled to military action."
Early Tuesday, Israeli troops killed a senior Islamic Jihad commander in a raid in the West Bank town of Nablus.
A neighbor said a Palestinian bystander was also shot to death by troops when he opened the door of his apartment during the raid. The Israeli military said the man was a militant killed during a gunbattle with troops.
Islamic Jihad said the commander of its northern West Bank operations, Tarek Juma, was killed in the operation.
The military said Juma was targeted because he was planning an attack on Israel. Troops found explosive devices and munitions in his apartment, it said.
In Germany, Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad condemned the operation.
Fayyad, whose government is trying to negotiate a peace deal with Israel, has said continuing military operations are undermining efforts to have Palestinian security forces restore law and order in the West Bank.
This was "an example of the kind of activity that has to stop and has to stop immediately and promptly if we are going to succeed in providing security to our people," said Fayyad, who is attending an international conference aimed at bolstering his security forces. "There was absolutely no exchange of information on this particular incident."
Also Tuesday, the Hamas military wing took responsibility for a shooting in the West Bank last week that injured three Israeli hikers. The claim was sent in a text message to Gaza journalists.
___ God bless Amos
Amos:"three rockets hit Isreal today killing three people"
Wow! they now produce presonalized rockets
Nasdaq is still in wave 3 down…Its going to get wild after the fed meeting on wednesday….
I went long Exxon in the morning caught it at$86.65 on the pull back Exxon staying right in step with XOI index chart…
Wave 3 up is underway with XOI…..
I sold my position just minutes ago…at the upper range for a very nice profit…
I\’m currently on the sidelines, but looking to go long again with Exxon at any time…
Gaza strip is heating up, Iran issue ect…three rockets hit Isreal today killing three people..not good.
Trading index went lower as the market went down…….but the A/d line is bearish 3 to 2 in favor of bears…
I\’m loving Exxon…..right now…..
God bless Amos
Resource War(aka World War III) is about to begin
Russian Army Trains for Arctic Combat to Defend Resource Claim http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aWWcSYKqThp8
jeez, those MSFT guys still struggling with Yahoo! if it\’s so freaking hard – just drop it
Greenspan Says Market `Crisis\’ May Extend Into 2009http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=avF7f_IvHEOU&refer=home
so we\’re about to start v of v of 1 of 3?
Wake me up when we start 3 of 3, will ya?
A round of applause for Tony!
amos, looking at qqqq\’s daily chart, doesn\’t it look like a bullish wedge? where the support line is from May 22nd to June 12th and to today\’s low and the upper resistance line is from june 05 high to june 19 high?
Mysteriously, GME is a stock that has been providing lead. I don\’t see any major movement in this stock yet, to call 5 done. but we are very close to it. As per earlier lower should hold as it\’s key for trend to go down more. Also month end, so kind of should see some rally.
interesting divergence with the general market and $VIX… $Vix is below the 200SMA an also below last high where as the market has tank lower then June 10\’s $vix high… so people still feel more complacent… feeling march low will hold? Notice CBOE had a big drop yesterday while market was flat… it seems most trader are expecting march low to hold…
wave 5 done?
Amos, you sound as if you got your application rejected when asking for aid from the bill-melinda foundation? Jokes aside, could you just stick with stocks and EW and keep the racial crap/discrimination elsewhere?
Amos,
Regarding XOM, I wouldn\’t count Friday\’s low as wave two – it exceeds the start of wave one by a good margin. That multii-top at 95 on the yearly chart looks ominous too.
lee – still sleeping?
.. amos, thanks for detailed explanation on xom..
amos, erik – read an article before on oil stocks.. they do not necessarily track oil price.. sometimes they do, sometimes don\’t.. so even if oil price comes down, XOM can still bounce.. both of you may be rite at the same time… peace
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Hi Amos
Currenlty Exxon future is trading low, I will buy it as there is all chance of bounce today from this low open. Thanks for this tip.
Elliott wave social studies…
The Paradox puzzle with humans who make it succesful like Bill Gates and his Me-linda wife charity foundation which i find a big joke…www.gmsp.org
why on earth does bill gates and his Me-linda wife refuse to help ANY white children?
If you apply for any type of student grant from them and you white and poor..they wont accept your application..
Then you have Carlos slim in Mexico who is worth much more than BIll gates and he wont even help his own kind.
i just dont get it….
I dont buy any microsoft products, because Bill gates and his me-linda wife..have turn their rich noses to their own race.
And If you ask them are you racist, they say no way..but in truth they are…
Its a paradox puzzle….for sure…..
Exxon is the stock to watch…….Price target $94 plus…
God bless Amos
Exxon Hourly chart
Wave 1 Impluse movment started at $85 exactly 97 trading hours ago. For $5.50
Wave 2 ended 10 trading hours ago.
Rising Channel line from $85 to $88.00
Today Exxon tested its rising channel line…at $88 level and pull back forming a hourly hanging man candlestick.
Wave 3 target is $94.00
Y/c wave ended 10 hours ago..and exxon is set to make its explosive move above $88 apex to $94 level.
Opportunity knocks, education main goal is to prepare you to take action…..
I\’m certainly preparing to take action with Exxon stock pattern. RSI (5) Daily is trending above 30% and Hourly readings are overbought levels, but any pull back is a awesome opportunity to take POSITIVE ACTION.
God bless Amos
2 days of free week left
EWI\’s latest STU
http://www.elliottwave.com/stu/archives/0623stu.pdf
If the decline from 1440.24 (May 19) in the S&P is indeed five waves—as opposed to a still-developing five-wave pattern whereby the upcoming low would be just wave three—then wave five would equal wave one at 1299, which is near “round number” support of 1300. Wave five would be a Fibonacci .618 times the length of waves one through three also at 1299 and the .786 retracement of wave (2) is 1296. So one possible target could be 1296-1300. Wave five would be a Fibonacci 1.618 times wave one at 1257, which is also the March 17 low, so another possible target could be the area surrounding the 1257 level. If the wave structure and accompanying technical measures are compatible with a near-term low when the index reaches either of these areas, we’ll discuss the potential for an end to wave 1 of (3). If they are not compatible, then there will remain greater bearish potential.
I have seen them dancing together and holding hands and walking in public shamelessly……..
)
Rich,
it\’s normal, we call it "been gay"
I don\’t know if I\’d say Bush is in bed with the oil sheiks, but I have seen them dancing together and holding hands and walking in public shamelessly……..
Amos,I don\’t NEED to explain every aspect of every chart. For some reason you do… God Bless.Honestly I could give a crap less where oil ends up. I don\’t trade it… nor do I have a desire to. I would have thought you GOT that already… maybe you were too busy TYPING to read. I don\’t trade stock that are overbought and posting negative divergence.Care to explain why you repeat yourself every half hour?Care to explain why you must validate all your analysis with this board?Care to explain why you must find further evidence of your \’opinion\’ by using references to the solar system and astrological alignment?And no, I\’m not going to "post" anything on my wall.I like this chart: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1886603&cmd=show%5Bs132588557%5D&disp=PHonestly, good luck with your trading.
mact3333
Why don\’t you explain the Irony, if there is one…Revelation 14:1 and Revelation 7;1-9 Heavenly Father gives us through his Holy bible the orders to protect ourselfs from the evil forces that in the latter times are set to form against us?
The children of Isreal are protected from the destroyer Exodus 12:23
Iran leader himself wants to wipe the Children of isreal off the planet..do you feel there is some irony how much iran people and their current leader hates Gods children?
Problem with most Americans they are 100% clueless who their real enemy are…Arabs are not your friends…
I know all about Arabs…..
If you think Mass weapons of destruction are bombs..to the Arabs its oil…they know our world depends on oil..and trust me they have been planning this price rise to crash our way o flife for a very long time.
Arabs cant beat us by regular war…they can beat us by our demand for energy..their oil…
XOI and Exxon are going to explode upwards as this war between Arabs and USA and Britian gets underway.
God bless Amos
gotta love it when someone says they hate certain races/religion/cultures and we should "nuke" certain countries followed by "god bless"…the irony…:)
Erik
Do you care to explain the Huge bullish divergence on the RSI (5) on Exxon chart pattern and XOI chart pattern?
Do you care to explain the XOI impluse wave 1 in June to june 8th high of $15 dollars?
Do you care to explain the Wave 2 bottom Y/C wave ending exactly on the 21 trading days yesterday from the high of the Wave (B)?
Wave 2 correction y/c ending right smack on the rising channel line…explain that?
Explain the current fundamentals long term cycle pattern of XOI topping in late July…
Gasoline usage is peaking in late July…..through August..months.
demand vs supply issues……ect…
Erik just got short, put your money on your opinion…
Print out Exxon stock chart tonight, and place it on your bedroom wall tonight…
By July 7th….write me back…..
I\’m looking to take a position with exxon shares very soon….
God bless Amos
Amos,Care to explain the huge negative divergence on oil since mid April?Again, I dont trade oil. I also dont trade nosebleed w5s. Good luck.How many posts do you make a day? Good lord.
Hourly chart Elliott wave count..XOI
a-(w)-(x) -(b) —W low….X high …..(a) low (b) high followed by the Y/C ending low…..now wave 3 thrust started yesterday..
If you only knew what this means…..
God bless Amos
Daily Chart of OIA the XOIl index..
yesterday was 21 trading days from high…….21 is matching number…
Y/C wave ended Yesterday….on the Hourly Chart…
Wave 3 has just started on XOI
Arabs are in bed with President Bush..both parties are so much liars its not even funny.
Crude is going to hit $160 barrel in this wave 3 up….
There is one small pull back with XOM or anything that runs with XOI….
Goldman sachs has oil hitting $200 a barrel by 2009….
Arabs are so stupid its not even funny, they cant even run their own oil wells properly…these arabs are plain idiots..
I cant stand them people…best thing that happen would be a nuke into iran…
Pull up a Chart on the daily of XOI..and hourly chart….if you understand what a Y/C wave is then you would get ready to go long the powerful upward thurst wave of wave 3 is about to explode….
God bless Amos
Oil…hmm. I seem to recall oil topping on 1978. a 30 year cycle, maybe
in effect to send oil much higher yet, but I am looking for a crest in
2008, and taking a 30 year cycle into account.
Bud
Erik
Go ahead and buy into DUG…and see how much your wrong..
Crude Oil is going $200 a barrel by 2009……and that is fact..short term $150
Elliott Wave Preferred count is Wave 3 up eos..
God bless Amos
Another way to play Crude Oil wave 3 upwards explosion..is day trade Exxon (XOM)
RSI (5) Bullish divergence has formed…..
Crude Oil is going to $150 eos
I might just day trade Exxon Tuesday….
God bless Amos
Oil bullish? You guys are insane. Forget your recent counts. Its ending its major iii and due for iv any day now. Its parabolic. DUG is where I\’d be if I was into any oil trading.
Proshares Ultra long (dig)
DIG advanced $8.50 today…..What a move…after hours its down $.62 per share on low volume of 1,200 shares.
http://www.americanbulls.com has a (BUY IF) signal on DIG….
My Elliott wave count is wave 3 started today…..
There is a wedge formation with QID……
If Crude explode upwards into wave 3 the powerful advance..QID going to explode upwards..out fo the wedge…
Today the Bullish falling wedge on QID broke out o the upside…5 minute chart today what a move.
God bless Amos
Frank
Rich P. posted his 60 minute chart of QQQQ last night…his chart was exactly what my count was….
1. Crude Oil is moving up in wave 3…as the movment moves higher and higher, it will place pressure on the stock market.
2. USD has just completed Wave 2 today, so wave 3 downward is kicking off…so we will have a lower dollar plus crude moving higher….not good for stocks.
3. There is a smaller wave (ii) playing out in Nasdaq….once this wave (ii) is done…I\’m expecting Wave 3 to continue downward….QQQQ will hit 45.00 thats for sure…..
I\’m expecting Tuesday trading with Nasdaq to be sideways action…
i made a huge killing again today with three very good trades with QID….late hours paid off very well with my last trade.
I don\’t have a position at this time….I\’m on the sidelines…
I\’m watching Crude and the Nasdaq for a position to take….nasdaq tuesday might be boring as i expect it to trade sideways in wave (ii)
I will post later tonight, If I find anything worth watching, Say with wave 3 in Crude ect..
God bless Amos
There were little bit of selling AH in QQQQ… although regular hour ended right above the important support of 47, but AH went under… I wonder if this could be a good chance to short more, or would this be a bear trap?