Over the years, the one aspect I have always found fascinating about Objective EW, is that time and time again it proved that the fluctuations in the stock market are not a random series of events. But a well orchestrated geometric progression of time, price and pattern. Usually, one can anticipate bottoms to corrections, by comparing what has already occurred to what might occur to conclude a perfect EW pattern. I feel we are about to experience one of those events!
The following can get a little complex for those not familiar with the inner workings of wave development. I’ll try my best to make it as clear as possible. If it’s gets too complicated to follow, just jump to the conclusion. I’ll keep updating the blog as necessary anyway. Okay, this is what I see going on.
The end of the advance in the COMPX occurred on August 2nd, at 2218.15. The index had risen about 16.5% from the April 28th low: a modest advance, but typical of a minute wave i. Since the August 2nd top, the COMPX has declined in a very orderly fashion. If you have been following my posts, you know that the correction was easily recognized, and for the most part, predictable as well. I have labeled this a typical ABC correction: minute ii; with wave A concluding on August 26th, wave B concluding on September 12th, and wave C underway.
Wave A declined 97 points, in a simple 5 x 5 zigzag, a smaller abc:
a = 54 points, b = 11 points, and c = 54 points; notice the symmetry of c = a.
Wave B advanced 62 points, in a smaller but simple double zigzag:
a near perfect 0.618% retracement of the decline of wave A.
If the ongoing wave C were to equal wave A, 97 points each, that would conclude the correction at COMPX 2086: A (2218 -2121=97), B (advanced to 2183), C (2183-97=2086).
Wave C appears to be declining in a simple 5 x 5 zigzag similar to wave A:
a = 37 points, b = 14 points, and c = 53 points thus far and still ongoing.
Notice that c might = 2 x a (or 74 points) a typical fibonacci relationship. If c does indeed equal 74 points, upon conclusion, then the entire decline of wave C would equal 97 points. Exactly the same as the larger wave A above! And the closing level of this entire decline would be COMPX 2086.
With wednesday’s close of 2107, we need another drop of 21 points to reach the 74 point decline in (c of C), and the 97 points of wave C, and the entire correction of ABC or minute ii. Lets see what develops!
I’ve added another chart to the photos section. It’s a 2 month chart of the COMPX with all the labeling and notes of what was mentioned above. The print low on the COMPX might come in at 2079.
Enjoy your week!