weekend update

In the photos section I’ve added three charts of the COMPX:
3 year: covering the entire bull market thus far.
1 year: illustrating a more detailed wave count, and
6 month: displaying current short term conditions.
I’ll be updating them as the waves complete.
Also, on Sept 15th I posted a blog on Objective EW. This details, in date and price, the entire bull market in EW terms. I’ll be updating this as well. There is a section on "where we’re heading". This details the expected rallies and corrections (waves) in the forthcoming months to complete the bull market. We still have three significant rallies ahead of us: minute 3, minute 5 and minor 5. As soon as minute 2 completes, we’ll be on our way. Now, is the time to be looking for stocks you want to own during the next advance.  
The minute wave 2  (abc) correction COMPX, that started Aug 02, is now in it’s third and final phase: wave A declined to 2121 on Aug 26th; wave B rallied to 2183 on Sept 12th; wave C should now bottom either at 2110 -2120 (flat) or 2060 – 2080 (zigzag). It’s too early to tell, but it will become more apparent as the correction nears conclusion. My MMI (market momentum indicator) continues to decline, typical of a correction, and has just turned negative for the first time since May. I expect it to get more oversold before this correction ends.
The Federal Reserve meets on tues Sept 20th to determine the next course of action in short term interest rates. They have raised rates 0.25% every meeting for the past two years: 10 rates increases. I had been expecting, for over a month now, that they would ease off and leave rates where they are. The after effects of Katrina has seemed to sway nearly everyone into my camp. However, I’ve been noticing that long term rates have been rising. And, this has occurred prior to every rate increase. So I’m beginning to wonder. Everything but a rate hike will have pretty much no impact on the market.
I’ll be posting mid week if something arises.
Have a great week!       

About tony caldaro

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